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National Post- Wheat Board may have cost growers billions

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    National Post- Wheat Board may have cost growers billions

    Kevin Libin, National Post
    Published: Thursday, August 07, 2008

    CALGARY -For 73 years, the Canadian Wheat Board swore there was strength in numbers; that Western farmers, as a band of grain-pooling brothers, could stand firm against the exploitations of speculators and corporations; that as one of the world's biggest grain marketers, its clout commands premiums. Announcing last week that the board projects a record $7-billion in revenue this year, chairman Larry Hill handed credit directly to monopoly power. The "CWB was able to leverage its role as a single seller ... to achieve strong values for farmers" boasted his press release.

    A new study by one of the world's top agronomics firms, Informa Economics, though, suggests the CWB isn't so mighty after all. Commissioned by the Alberta government and released the same day as Mr. Hill's announcement, it concluded the board succeeds no better than your average schmo when it comes to grain marketing. More damning, it calculates that growers would have gotten richer over the past several years from the open market, rather than being forced to sell to the board.

    Freeing farmers from the CWB's monopolistic grip has been the federal Conservatives' plan since they were elected in 2006, rooted in Reform Party principles that Westerners deserve the same rights as their Eastern peers to freely sell a product of their labour. So far, their efforts have been frustrated. But this latest report may offer the most powerful ammunition yet in undermining the Canadian Wheat Board's entire raison d'etre.

    "If you could show that year in, year out they get a higher return you might be able to argue, 'Well maybe there is a case for denying individual freedom,' " says Blair Rutter, executive director of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association, a pro-marketing-choice group. "If you can't even demonstrate that they get an above-average return, then what's their justification?"

    The CWB has studied the report for the past several days, preparing its response. In an e-mail, spokeswoman Maureen Fitzhenry said it may come as early as today and "would certainly refute its main conclusion."

    This will be a tough thing to dismiss, though. Informa's reputation is as a top authoritative source for agronomics analysis. Based in Memphis, British owned, it has no dog in this policy fight; its good name (its parent firm is traded on the London exchange) is surely worth more than scoring political points in Canada with faulty studies.

    Economists used a treasury of grain pricing data from the UN, USDA and published elevator and gate prices to analyze wheat board profitability using three different models (the CWB refused to share its own confidential sales figures, but controlling 95% of Canadian wheat and barley exports, national statistics come close). Every which way, the study found board taking home prices that, over time, came up short.

    If the CWB ever was a market mover, it is no more, says David Reimann, Informa's vice-president. Producers in the former Soviet bloc export more wheat. Americans, too. Western Canada, suffering a heavier drop in wheat acreage than any exporting jurisdiction, slipped from 20% world market share in 1995 to 14%. Canadian barley, just 11%. "The CWB's relatively small share in the international market means it is unable to exert any real influence over global prices," the report states. It is a "price taker" -- meaning it gets the going rate. Anyone can manage that. And without the inefficiencies of the single-desk system, the authors estimate, Western producers could have made $2.25-billion-$3-billion more over the last five years in the open market.

    That's Alberta's interest in fact-checking the CWB's claims, spending $50,000 on the report to do it; its producers have long favoured marketing choice (Saskatchewan recently joined the campaign, too, leaving Manitoba's NDP the board's only provincial ally). "The evidence is that the current system is costing [farmers] money," says Alberta Agriculture spokesman Lucas Warren. "We want to provide the best economic opportunity for them."

    The federal Conservatives' approach, though, has faced accusations of being more ideological than practical. Attempts to, as a first step, let barley farmers opt out of the CWB have been thwarted by an aggressive, activist board. Directors overturned the government's tries at regulatory changes in court. Opposition parties refuse to support legislation deregulating barley, persuaded by the CWB that a majority of producers prefer the status quo and believe it makes more than going it alone.

    But the board's own surveys have shot the first claim: 67% of barley farmers polled this year oppose its monopoly. And if the CWB can't offer one heck of a compelling argument to controvert Alberta's new and potent evidence that board collectivism actually hurts farmers, not helps them, it's going to have a tough time selling its strength in numbers story any longer.

    #2
    Personally, I can't wait to see what Fitzhenry and her merry band of spin meisters will come up with on this one.

    A bunch of non verifiable, theoretical gooble de gook no doubt.

    Comment


      #3
      Fransisco:

      The CWB 'risk management' policies are to blame... for a large chunk of the Informa 'discovery'... which to a large degree is a 'new' unearthing of a very 'old' problem!

      'Pooled' risk!

      The CWB 'system' of management of risk issues... simply does not work...

      Without exception... the temptations this model creates... and 'human nature' (Arrogance) prove to be a fatal flaw no 'single desk' has ever overcome!

      NO ONE should 'hold their breath' waiting for a decent CWB basis on the produce it sells...

      Comment


        #4
        I read the 92 page report, its a very interesting read.... Confirms what I have fealt all along the CWB have been price takers...

        Comment


          #5
          The words "estimate" or "estimates" or "estimated" keep popping up throughout the "Informa" report. All judgement calls of the authors of the report.

          Would have, should have, could have. Or perhaps "in our dreams" we conclude...

          Comment


            #6
            wilagro

            As a reviewer of the report, I don't see word estimates that often.

            What specific sections are you referring to?

            Will note again the report is based on publically available information - FAO data, Quorum, USDA. Do you have specific issues with the data sources.

            Will note the reference in the $560 mln dollar benefit to single desk. Refers to USDA data - should the CWB be responsible for clarity around this claim which appears to be based on public data. I will note that 89 % of Western Canadian farmers sold for under $7/bu (slide 8 year end presentation) on the PPO contracts (3.4 mln tonnes fpc plus 650,000 tonnes dpc). Was this included in the $560 mln dollars? Does this mean farmers are not capable of making pricing decisions?

            Comment


              #7
              charliep: I guess that I just hate "post-mortem" reports on what "should" or "could have" happened if the CWB had done this or that, as opposed to the American system... the so-called "open market".

              They always seem to find years in which our system failed us but never mention the years when we benefitted from the single desk.

              Comment


                #8
                wilagro - This has more teeth than anything I have seen from the CWB defending their position... I support single desk selling if it works.. its just not working! I will never forget a conversation I had with one of the CWB Sales staff at Grain World a couple years back.. I asked if they were busy? He replied no the phone has been real quiet... does that sound like a comment from someone who is out trying to flex muscle as a single desk seller??? These guys are price takers.

                Last year total costs associated with selling grain to the CWB were over $26 per tonne. with 72 million dollars in administration expense. That seems high to me... When there are currently multinational companies that could take care of selling this product for us, and yes I acknowledge their would be cost for those companies as well but 600 Million in cost of sales and another 72 Million admin costs.... I don't think so!

                Think how much money they would save in Admin if the carried on with single desk selling and eliminated price pooling?? Just post a bid everyday for each commodity but still have the single desk selling power. The pooling costs are crazy!!

                I am on the fence as to whether or not The CWB should be stripped of their monopoly but as long as they insist on having pooling so they can hide all their mistakes.. I am leaning towards taking the monopoly powers out of their hands. There is just not enough accountablity under our current structure.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Willy, the open market is not, I repeat NOT an "American System". It is the predominant system of economic growth and prosperity the world over.

                  The free market's modern roots go back to the 1700's and the Scottish economist Adam Smith.

                  if estimates are used it only because the cwb refuses to share the actual sales info.

                  But what is real here willy is the steep decline of Canada's market share of wheat and barley under the current system. That alone should be enough for this country to scrap this relic.

                  But what amazes me is this, for the cwb, conclusions based on theoretical formulas that only 2 out of 100 phd's can understand is considered valid proof of it's advantages. While real data based off of real market activity is somehow contrived.

                  By the way willy and Agstar and GrainBeetle and who ever else is out there on the cwb payrole, please explain to me what is so magical in your minds about this soviet style system that makes all of you continue to defend something that is so blatantly fictious (single desk advantages)?

                  Why are you so willing to discredit your own inteligence, over and over and over again for the wheat board?

                  It's as if without it you believe people will die or something.

                  I just don't get it.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Willy:

                    I know you seem to have a disproportionate dislike for estimates but I can’t resist.

                    Consider this little quicky “estimate”:

                    Did you know that in 07-08 the wheat PRO (and likely Final) is lower than the average CWB selling price by about $34.39/tonne? ($404.39 versus $370)

                    And did you know the CWB sold 13.4 mmt of wheat in 07-08?

                    That means the CWB made for you <b>$460.8 million LESS</b> than if it had gotten just average prices.

                    (And that doesn’t even include the high system costs that Informa talked about, using data from the Federally Appointed Grain Monitor).

                    The same approach on malt barley gets you <b>$130.5 million LESS</b> than average.

                    Combined, that’s $591.3 million LESS than average prices would give you. (I wonder how it did on durum and feed barley………)

                    And you know what’s interesting about this? Anyone can do this analysis – you don’t need to be an economist – and best of all, <b>it’s using nothing but the CWB's own price data</b>.

                    Also – there’s a reason why “they” always find years when the CWB failed and never mention the years when you benefited from the single desk.

                    I’ve been doing this kind of analysis for a long, long time and have found only one glimmer of hope for CWB supporters regarding CWB marketing performance …… in 96/97 the 2Row malt barley final was slightly higher than the midpoint of CWB selling prices that year. All other years, the CWB sales levels or pools are lower than the average of any relevant price I’ve compared them to.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Here's one to make you go HMMMMMM.....

                      Someone at the CWB decided to stop selling at some point so the CWB carry out stocks are reported to be 3.9 mmt. (I think this is high considering we were looking at one of the biggest inverses in recent memory - every pound should have been sold.)

                      If average prices drop $100/tonne (a mere $2.72/bu) and the CWB selling prices drop the same (why wouldn't they - the PRO is already $30 lower), then you're looking at another $200 million in lost opportunity (I'm being easy on them here - I'm assuming they could have easily sold another 2 mmt, not the whole 3.9 mmt.)

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Hindsight is always perfect. Way to go, free marketeers, you really know what is best for all of us, studying the results. Killing the Crow was really a good thing wasn't it. As the cow guys, cheap feed is the order of the day, isn't it??

                        Comment


                          #13
                          When you look back through history the CWB does have a "perfect" record. It keeps coming in below average. Whats the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Burbert,

                            Who do you work for?

                            DUMB QuESTION... I KNOW!

                            You said:

                            "Hindsight is always perfect."

                            The CWB has done this very same stategy... year after year... costing us each year... and we who actually must use their services are frankly sick of the bad decisions... and expensive services.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              CWB response posted.

                              http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/newsroom/releases/2008/080808.jsp

                              Encourage all the read the study. You have the ability to reach your own conclusions based on the information presented.

                              http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$Department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agc6751/$FILE/informafinalreport.pdf

                              From there, encourage everyone to ask for the CWB to provide the same level of transparency starting with the $560 mln benefit over what US farmers received according to the 2007/08 year end presentation.

                              Comment

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