Whats everyones take on market direction and why?

[poorboy]

Sitting here in front of the computer wondering if the markets have peaked in mid july and now we are on the downward spiral for the next few years. I have found that in downtrending markets it pays to sell all your grain early in the year.

It seems to me that the fundamentals are not all that important, it is the rush of fund and speculator money that moves the markets (both futures and stocks). When the funds are buying you have a bull run and when they are selling you have a bear.

[parsley]

The bull took a notion again, and turned up in the commodity pasture.

Snorting and impressive. And effective.

How many are still lined up waiting and wanting their turn at lassooing the bull?

How many took up feeding the bull?

How many are fixing the fence he crashed through moving to greener pastures because you refused to open the gate when he was done?

Yah, yah, Agstar always tries to shoot the bull. lol

How many calves will you enter on your financial statement?

The window of opportunity is short.

Parsley

[cottonpicken]

The strong are eating the weak.

[just_wondering]

I would remember where prices were this time last year and that we were only just beginning to see these prices
someone better than me will look it up but last year at this time wheat was trading in the top 10% of where it's ever traded before.
We just got used to producing at COP for so long that many of us stopped producing.
I think that while me may not see the highs of last Feb. almost all crops are still in historically high levels.
sell enough to cover your cash flow needs, then a little more then re-evaluate.
People still have to eat! and I believe that for third world governments it's easier to feed people than shoot them so grain will be bought and someone will make money, it might as well be farmers as arms merchants.

[agstar77]

When it comes to( shooting the) bull Parsley, you win the award. From what crop analysts are saying they believe the USDA is totally out to lunch in estimating a trend yield in corn and soybeans. The crop is late and nowhere near a trend yield.

[poorboy]

It appears to me that the high prices of oil (energy) are causing a worldwide slowdown in demand as costs of production and cost of living are going up. Reduced demand is the result of the high prices.

It would seem to me that as prices of other commodities come down, so will grains. I do not see a worldwide shortage of grain on the immediate future. The wheat crops look good and demand is slowing. Corn crops appear to be decent with the good summer, and the cattle can be run on grass longer and reduce the demand for corn if the prices stay high.

It seems to me that there is lots of demand, but there is also lots of production.

For those who have opinions on which way things are going, I am interested in your opinions and WHY you think the way you do. Obviously, everyone has different ideas and if we knew what was going to happen we probably wouldn't be telling the whole world.

I did not predict the spike higher in commodities in the fall of 2007 through the summer of 2008.

[cottonpicken]

Spring wheat was 6.50ish this time last year.


The fundementals have not changed,and you can have high prices with slowing growth.

In the past three years there have been only three oppurtunities to buy oil.
jan 05
jan 07
now

Of course it takes brains,balls and back.
Economic darwanism.
Grains are not a sell at this time.
Grains are a buy.

[poorboy]

Cotton,

It is sure nice to see that you are still optomistic on the grain prices. Your indicators and things you watch, show a positive outlook yet for grains, and I am glad that you have shared that.

Part of me is still optomistic, but part of me looks back in history and sees that after every big spike higher in prices is a big spike lower. A steady increase in prices seems to be more attainable on futures than huge swings.

Pea harvest will be starting for me, in the next few days and I am debating on selling all now, selling 1/2 and keeping 1/2, or just keeping all of the crop. I do not need the cashflow.

My spider sense seems to be tingling more now than it has all winter.

[wedino]

Anyone watching gold of late? All I can say, it sucks to be me. This market has to be a buy, soon.

[Kodiak]

The "outside" market action lately defies my ability to comprehend what is happening. Stocks and bonds going up together today. Silver drops 15% in one day. Gold down 20% in less than month. Is there government intervention going on? Does the US Presidential election mean we'll have rising stock markets until November and depreciating commodities. That's what the the politicians want. Will they get their way? What does all this mean for grain prices? And inputs?

Looking forward to your Wisdom Cotton....

[charliep]

All I can say is I am glad I am not trading futures these days (have done in the past to very limited amount and I highlight limited - too much risk/lack of sleep factor).

I think this is a story farmers should be following. Futures volatility will get transferred back to farmers in terms of wider basis levels. As an example, any grain company (including the CWB) that carries open position (not hedged) grain inventory/contracts even overnight faces major risk the next morning when they step into the market to cover their position.

Will note cottonpicken's points over time about the general bull market in commodities and the answer has been yes. The commodity market has lost its bloom (at least from a speculative sense). Have the commodity markets over reacted (realizing that individual commodities have fundamentals at play that will move their prices around outside normal patterns? Will commodities in general start heading higher?

[charliep]

Should not my comments are based on all the red in todays crop futures markets. I look at 30 cent/bu moves on CBT corn and 60 cent moves on beans as $1500/$3000 pain or gain on 1 contract. The 5000 bu is one of bins or 3 "B" trains. Also realize just one day in the market - things change. Perhaps a good time to be on holidays or concentrating on getting equipment ready for harvest and leaving some of the market gyrations alone.

[Kodiak]

Some talk today of an EU based index fund liquidating either for financial reasons or re-classification from hedge fund to spec fund. Who knows for sure.....

I agree Charlie. Either prepare equipment for harvest or go to the lake. I think I like the lake better. I can forget this ugliness better there......

[cottonpicken]

I'm buying more stock for the first time in a long time.Wedino your sitting pretty and ahead of 99% of the investment crowd,i'm very surprised at how much were on the same page.

Like it or not every single farmer is technically in the futures market if he produces something.

I love this roller coaster were on.

This isnt the last time we will go up and then crash.

[parsley]

Here's a hot off the press market direction from Food Navigator.com:

Aug 20th -2008
A few quotes:


Coors tempted into UK women’s beer market
By Shane Starling

The UK’s second biggest brewer – Coors UK – has set itself the ambitious goal of making women “love beer as much as they love shoes”.



Coors UK, the UK arm of US brewing giant, Molson Coors Brewing, has established a working a group called Eve that is investigating beer formulation, packaging and marketing options that may be more appealing to women than the array of “male dominated” options currently available.

From the brewery to the bar
“From the brewery to the bar, beer has a very male persona,” Derry said. “We want to do more than just get women drinking beer – we want to get them excited about drinking beer.


Our philosophy is that beer is a good thing that women are missing out on. That’s what Eve is about.”


UNQUOTE


Just curious...Are the men drinking Adam?

Parsley