late crop and production

[bucket]

I took a drive from swift current to lethbridge on saturday. wow!

Its late august and on a saturday not one combine did I see moving.

Crops are late all over. Confirm my belief that statscan and the experts don't have a clue.

Between medicine hat and taber over 100 pivots are twisted up according to the irrigation co in taber.

Bumper crop they (the experts and statscan) say. Really?

The hail storm south of swift current took out 400000 tonnes of grain. What two crops are predominant in that area? Durum and peas.

Cereal crops are not even close in my area and by the looks of the trip its going to be a very late fall and production numbers are really out of whack.

Felt pretty good about the crop I have - its not a bumper but after seeing those irrigation crops that had been pummelled a new perspective takes hold. Those guys put alot of time and effort into irrigating and disking it down as opposed to combining has to be dissappointing.

Late late late and there is no bumper crop. Sure there are pockets but in the big picture western canada's crop won't be bigger than last years.

[TOM4CWB]

Bucket

I don't see where StatsCan accounted for the drought/wreck in the Peace River area!

[charliep]

Will note the forecast is survey based so reflects
farmer provided numbers. Also very early in the
season (last week July/first week August) so no
one would expect to be the final numbers (unless
of course farmers know their actual yields and this
point and provide them to the surveyors).

Also only one of many production estimates (most
of the others confidential and for internal use by
companies). This ones advantage is again survey
based.

I will note there is on firm number that did catch
the markets attention and that is the adjustment
to 2007 canola production - increased to 9.5 mln
tonnes from 8.75 last November. Reflects the
results of the July 31 stocks report to be released
in a couple of weeks. If there was a number to be
excited about, this would be the one.

[freewheat]

Huge crop coming in the northeast, but late. One thing to remember is millions of acres went unseeded last year in my region, millions more were very poor crops due to saturated fields. Not that one rgion a crop does make, but my perspective is that if I drove around in this region, without knowing of the poor areas, i'd say a mammoth crop was on its way. But then again, i havn't grown a crop for three years due to flooding issues, o what do I know? LOL overall, from what I hear, an average crop is in the works, and yes, i think the powers that be are clueless...

[BreadWinner]

Yellow Peas looked like they were going to go 60bus plus 3 weeks ago, then wet weather hit. They turned a dark color under the canopy and quickly died. Combined 200 acres yesterday and they are averaging 28bus/acre. If you drove past you would think it was a bumper crop but you never know till it is in the combine. Looks like I will have to adjust my expectaions.

[bucket]

Charliep

Most on this website have been questioning whether the numbers are accurate for some time now.

The problem with statscan is they phone farmers instead of what they do in the states and actually walk the fields. When they phone me I tell the X number of oats at 80 bushels to the acre and I don't grow them. Why? because they sell the info to grain companies so they can lower prices. If the graincos would due their figures I would believe them.

But continue to justify their inaccuracies and their existence.

[ProFarmer]

early winter wheat is yielding good here, hard red is so full of fuzz. Rain has washed out malt. Stats canada doesn't have a clue as to the lateness of the crop Frost last night in Rossburn Manitoba.

[bucket]

Hey I wonder if wonderbug weather has made any mention about the frost.

Maybe a couple hundred more weather stations can give us better marketing and yields.

[furrowtickler]

Hey, Bucket - did the drive through Taber - Bow Island on the 23rd July. That is a hell of a mess. The best crops on our tour are from Alsask to Kindersley. Finished winter wheat today and it sucked - 35bpa. Peas look OK so far. Start swathing canola again in the morning. Canola in this area is all over the map - in geaneral below average. We have canola that will run 25 and some 40 - Depends on rain showers, hail, seeding date, and variety. By far the worst, Victory 1036.

[charliep]

Will note that acreage and production forecasts are only one factor in price. Other factors include outside markets, commericial, technicals, etc. You might want to put a ICE canola chart over a CBT bean oil one. My experience is the Statscan estimate has a life of about a day in the market at best and most often can be measured in minutes. This year might be an exception in that 800,000 tonnes of additional old crop supplies were found - not new news to the market even then for most analysts.

Also note that USDA estimates are survey based as well. You are right in that there is more ground proofing in terms of extension staff/private industry in field observation when the crop has advanced. Also more private forecasters down there/crop tours.