Traders still think a large canola crop?

[Zaphod]

Good point about the 750,000 tonnes. I'm not certain, but my take is that when they asked guys about their July 31 stocks, more canola showed up than they expected. The same thing will happen in lentils, probably mustard and maybe even durum. We could see some serious backpedalling next week, when StatsCan puts out their next S&Ds. That doesn't mean that any of these crops will be burdensome, but if they did screw up, it would be in underestimating production last year.

Gotta remember that it's only one estimate and the market will eventually settle out at some kind of equilibrium. If StatsCan is wrong, the trade will ignore it or discount it. Usually, the impact of a StatsCan report doesn't last more than two days and then the trade gets back to business. From what I hear, the line companies put way more stock in what their local guys are saying than in StatsCan.

[charliep]

What I think people are talking about is market information and using it to make better decisions/develop a marketing plan. If anyone thinks the Canadian canola crop is overestimated based on current information and international prices/US future have over reacted to what seems to be good news (plus you have bills paid this fall), then by all means lock the bins this fall and sell winter/spring.

Perhaps as being an occupational hazard of being an analyst, my attention is focused on the consumption side. Will note in this weeks western producer the COPA quote which highlight at least 4.5 to 4.6 mln tonnes of Canadian canola crush in 2008/09. Japan comes into the Canadian market for 1.8 to 2 mln tonnes (depending somewhat on the Aussie crop). Mexico is there for a further 1 to 1.2 mln tonnes solid sales. You can add in US plus other regular buyers and some dockage/seed and you have 8 mln tonnes of every year productiton requirements to satisfy these committed business.

You can put in the number has to actual production and where the extra will be sold. Grade is an unknown as well and if the negativity is right, Canada will have to be finding a lot new homes for 3CW and sample. This will be a far bigger issue that production.

[charliep]

I should also note that a major theme in this weeks western producter is whether there is enough canola production capability in N.E. Saskatchewan to supply the 2 new crushing plants. A good thing for farmers (particularly local ones).

[agstar77]

Something that may be of interest, if you listen to cramer on cnbc, he has stated that China has stopped importing. They are not ordering cargo ships. He believes this part of the comodity collapse. When they re-enter the market there will be a commodity rebound.

[GreenValley]

Been done using cash advanced from Canola
Board, I think. Just go to elevator and request Cash Advanced for Canola. Will do again this year and lock bin and throw key and open in spring or summer as heard that there is no sunspot for entire August month as it may getting cooling instead of warming. I am in for 16.00/bus, go for wild ride again in spring or summer 2009 not in fall or winter.

[furrowtickler]

Dave, Canola with average yeilds is barely at break even levels now. If it is not priced lock er up in the bin! This is what we (S.F.) and others were talking about, it will get worse yet. Wait it out until Feb and put out $15-16/bus gpo's on it - send a message, do not give it away.

[SASKFARMER3]

Read Allen Johnson's comments. the buyers have backed away hopping farmers need money.

[TOM4CWB]

Sask,et el;

It is all about the black oil.

We have said this for some time.

If oil stablises at around $80/t... Canola will then put bottom in at about $450/t.

Don't blame people who are just responding to s&d market conditions!

It is a good size Canola crop... and quality on average will be down some... but we have been through this on 50% of the years before.

The sunspot reports are bang on... until someone learns how to change the sun... colder & warmer; climate change is a given!

[TOM4CWB]

oops, that was $80/bbl

[cottonpicken]

Were screwed till nov 5.

Then our prices will take off.

IMO.