Traders still think a large canola crop?

[furrowtickler]

Dave, Canola with average yeilds is barely at break even levels now. If it is not priced lock er up in the bin! This is what we (S.F.) and others were talking about, it will get worse yet. Wait it out until Feb and put out $15-16/bus gpo's on it - send a message, do not give it away.

[SASKFARMER3]

Read Allen Johnson's comments. the buyers have backed away hopping farmers need money.

[TOM4CWB]

Sask,et el;

It is all about the black oil.

We have said this for some time.

If oil stablises at around $80/t... Canola will then put bottom in at about $450/t.

Don't blame people who are just responding to s&d market conditions!

It is a good size Canola crop... and quality on average will be down some... but we have been through this on 50% of the years before.

The sunspot reports are bang on... until someone learns how to change the sun... colder & warmer; climate change is a given!

[TOM4CWB]

oops, that was $80/bbl

[cottonpicken]

Were screwed till nov 5.

Then our prices will take off.

IMO.

[furrowtickler]

I think you may be right cotton.

[parsley]

I read Johnston's comments, too, SF3,

I think Johnston will send you a copy of his newsletter, if you email him.

allan@ajagra.com

Some interesting comments the last while, from someone who is actually trading grain.

Parsley

[bgmb]

What happens on nov 5th cotton?

[cottonpicken]

We have had a broad based commodity sell off and a rally in the us dollar.

This all happened right after gold punched a thousand,oil was sky rocketing,the us dollar was falling off a clff,inflation was more widley accepted as out of control,the us housing market became nationalized,the us auto sector is about to be nationalized,the war was about to be expaned into iran(which will not be a cake walk,banks were going broke and being bailed out,etc,etc.

and then boom!

Everything reverses and the opposite happens.

After the crisis of 87,the us government put together a team of people to intervene in the markets to help stabilize things if things started spinning out of control.

They are called the plunge protection team.

No,i'm not making this up.

So WHY has this "thing" happened.

Its an election year.And i believe the election falls on nov 4.

[GreenValley]

US govt taken over fannie and freddie, the question is would this effect to US dollar and bring hard assets, like gold, commodity may go up. keep more print money
So lock up, throw key away.

[SASKFARMER3]

Tom your usually a up to minuet kind of guy but aren't you from Alberta where the hell is the huge crop its still grass green and it froze the last two weeks. Been their before your boys are in for one hell of a surprise. And what about the Peace. Did you forget its dry their.

[TOM4CWB]

Sask,

Time will tell... I think you are overreacting!

SK. has escaped so far...

If canola is grassgreen now... it is a hail or an over/unbalanced application of N issue... not the normal crop situation in general.

West of highway 2... they have had many years with frozen argentine Canola.... they used to grow only polish... when grade was the concern!

Same in northern SK.

Most canola has been swathed for over a week now... and is generally safe from frost.

I have been amazed at even straight cut canola ad how little green problems occur if it was desicated at the proper time... in years past!

[SASKFARMER3]

Where in Northern west Sask is most canola swath? But time will tell the real story of this year. And I bet I will be closer to the truth its a plain old average crop with grade issues.

[Burbert]

Canola crop looks to be smaller than usual. Losts of production/weather problems this year. Canola acres aren't that big either.

[cottonpicken]

The question is where does it all end.

Fannie and freddie represent half of the 12 trillion dollar us morgage market.

As more dollars are injected into the system they bid up the price of the widjets.