Oh My God China has some Production Problems!

[SASKFARMER3]

Northeast China drought damages soybeans: For the second year in a row inadequate rainfall has produced a very disappointing soybean crop in Heilongjiang, China’s leading soybean province that produces one-third of the national crop. Harbin received only 60% of normal rainfall from June1 through August, the most important period for soybean production. Hot temperatures made drought stress worse.
Another bumper crop brought to you by the BS crop reporting.

[agstar77]

There are reports of drought damage to corn and soybeans in Indiana and Iowa.

[Zaphod]

It doesn't look too droughty to me.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/1cpnp2.gif

The latest that I heard was that China was going to produce 1.5 million tonnes more than last year. Oh wait, that's bearish. It must be BS.

[jensend]

darned near every country has some production problems every year. analysts seem to not expect huge crops everywhere all the time. i would guess they are more aware of the global situation than 99.99% of canadian farmers or even the western producer. take a deep breath.

[jensend]

don't think what's happened over the last twelve months has a lot to do with s&d. it's been a run of money looking for something to do and grains exploded. in the last year it looks like supply (globally) has increased and there isn't another billion mouths to feed from the last year. yara's fert. price posting shows p2o5 up 30% since mid-august and nh3 up i think about 10%. fertilizer prices will adjust somewhat to grain prices but they built such a huge cushion into their prices they've got room to play with.

[Zaphod]

I would only partly agree. There's no question that grain and oilseed supplies were low and that a rally was due. The question is whether it was overdone because of the funds. My opinion is yes. The problem is that if they move to big short positions while the index funds bail out, will the reaction to the downside be overdone. Quite probably.

[SASKFARMER3]

Rumor today in grain trade is that Countries China and India are paying the penalties and dropping contracts for peas and hrs canola etc.
Just wait these two will do the same to the fert companies etc.