Corn down in States may little lower than what USDA estimate from last week report. it due to 2 weeks late, need replant due flood, drought in August for Ohio, Wis. These comment from Storm Exhange analysis. Corn may be lower than 152 by USDA, say around 144. Look like we going to wild ride again in 2009.
Storm Exchange: U.S. Corn Yield Likely Much Lower Than What USDA Predicts
9/15/2008
AgWeb.com Editors
A much lower U.S. corn yield is in the works for 2008 than what USDA is currently predicting, according to weather analysis firm Storm Exchange.
Analysts at Storm Exchange estimate U.S. corn yield for 2008 at 144 bushels/acre, which is nearly 6% lower than what USDA figured Friday in their September yield projection of 152.3 bushels/acre, due to a host of contributing factors:
* Corn was planted 1-2 weeks late preventing chances for a bumper yield.
* 10-12% of corn was severely damaged from flooding and needed to be replanted. This corn went in 3 weeks late and has no chance for a normal yield.
* Yellowing from nitrogen deficiency was widespread across the Midwest and led to reduced plant vigor and small ears.
* August rainfall ranked among the 6th-7th lowest in Wisconsin and Ohio in a 114-year history and 10th lowest in Iowa, Indiana and Michigan, stressing corn and hindering kernel fill
* Slow maturity in the Northern Midwest leads to small light-weight kernels. Minnesota has never produced a normal yield when corn was maturing at the current slow rate
* The risk of a damaging freeze is elevated in the Upper Midwest due to delayed planting dates and slow development in a cool summer
After a dry August, USDA typically overestimates the yield in September, according to Storm Exchange analysts. USDA bases their September corn yield estimate on three variables: Plant population (number of stalks per acre), ear leagth and ear girth.
However, Storm Exchange notes that kernel size is left out of the USDA analysis. The effects of a dry August ultimatley would result in small, light-weight kernels that may not be realized until the harvest gets fully under way, Storm Exchange says.
Variability Presents Challenges in Calculating Yield
Another danger to trying to nail down corn yield forecasts is high variability in fields. Yellow and stunted corn is not fully factored into USDA's yield estimate, Storm Exchange analysts argue.
USDA scouts faced a unique challenge obtaining the proper balance in fields that contain both small and large ears of corn. Due to the extreme wetness that occured earlier in the year, stunted ears of corn develop in the wet spots while normal-sized ears may develop where flood water drained away quickly.
The 1995 season was very similar, Storm Exchange says. That year, the growing season began wet with widespread flooding but ended on a very dry note in August. US corn yield in 1995 finished 10% below trend but was over-stated on the September report - dropping 6% to the final estimate.
Retarded Maturity in a Cool Summer
Very cool summer temperatures - in addition to delayed planting dates - have slowed maturity in northern states Minnesota, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Iowa, Storm Exchange says.
Corn is ripening two weeks behind normal and will not fully be ripe in early October - the average date of the first frost, Storm Exchange says. Based on Storm Exchange research, risk of a damaging freeze for Minnesota is 40% , Iowa is 30% while South Dakota's risk sits at 70%.
But regardless of frost, late-maturing corn will make a disappointing low yield because of inefficient kernel filling that occurs with natural cooling in September, Storm Exchange argues, which helps put U.S. corn yield much lower than what USDA is predicting.
Related Stories
USDA’s Corn Yield Estimates Too High, According to Farm Journal Poll
Links to AgWeb.com Report Coverage
Storm Exchange: U.S. Corn Yield Likely Much Lower Than What USDA Predicts
9/15/2008
AgWeb.com Editors
A much lower U.S. corn yield is in the works for 2008 than what USDA is currently predicting, according to weather analysis firm Storm Exchange.
Analysts at Storm Exchange estimate U.S. corn yield for 2008 at 144 bushels/acre, which is nearly 6% lower than what USDA figured Friday in their September yield projection of 152.3 bushels/acre, due to a host of contributing factors:
* Corn was planted 1-2 weeks late preventing chances for a bumper yield.
* 10-12% of corn was severely damaged from flooding and needed to be replanted. This corn went in 3 weeks late and has no chance for a normal yield.
* Yellowing from nitrogen deficiency was widespread across the Midwest and led to reduced plant vigor and small ears.
* August rainfall ranked among the 6th-7th lowest in Wisconsin and Ohio in a 114-year history and 10th lowest in Iowa, Indiana and Michigan, stressing corn and hindering kernel fill
* Slow maturity in the Northern Midwest leads to small light-weight kernels. Minnesota has never produced a normal yield when corn was maturing at the current slow rate
* The risk of a damaging freeze is elevated in the Upper Midwest due to delayed planting dates and slow development in a cool summer
After a dry August, USDA typically overestimates the yield in September, according to Storm Exchange analysts. USDA bases their September corn yield estimate on three variables: Plant population (number of stalks per acre), ear leagth and ear girth.
However, Storm Exchange notes that kernel size is left out of the USDA analysis. The effects of a dry August ultimatley would result in small, light-weight kernels that may not be realized until the harvest gets fully under way, Storm Exchange says.
Variability Presents Challenges in Calculating Yield
Another danger to trying to nail down corn yield forecasts is high variability in fields. Yellow and stunted corn is not fully factored into USDA's yield estimate, Storm Exchange analysts argue.
USDA scouts faced a unique challenge obtaining the proper balance in fields that contain both small and large ears of corn. Due to the extreme wetness that occured earlier in the year, stunted ears of corn develop in the wet spots while normal-sized ears may develop where flood water drained away quickly.
The 1995 season was very similar, Storm Exchange says. That year, the growing season began wet with widespread flooding but ended on a very dry note in August. US corn yield in 1995 finished 10% below trend but was over-stated on the September report - dropping 6% to the final estimate.
Retarded Maturity in a Cool Summer
Very cool summer temperatures - in addition to delayed planting dates - have slowed maturity in northern states Minnesota, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Iowa, Storm Exchange says.
Corn is ripening two weeks behind normal and will not fully be ripe in early October - the average date of the first frost, Storm Exchange says. Based on Storm Exchange research, risk of a damaging freeze for Minnesota is 40% , Iowa is 30% while South Dakota's risk sits at 70%.
But regardless of frost, late-maturing corn will make a disappointing low yield because of inefficient kernel filling that occurs with natural cooling in September, Storm Exchange argues, which helps put U.S. corn yield much lower than what USDA is predicting.
Related Stories
USDA’s Corn Yield Estimates Too High, According to Farm Journal Poll
Links to AgWeb.com Report Coverage