2008/09 Durum Market

[highwayman]

Charlie, what is your take on current durum strategies? Should a producer be biting the bullet and taking an EPO or possibly a fixed price in light of all the speculation that PRO's will be dropping significantly in the coming months. Talk from some analysts is that there may only be a 50% call on durum this marketing year and we should all be ready to carry at least half of our crop in to the next crop year. With this info out there already what will that obviously do to contract tonnage offered by farmers, I think we know the answer to that one. With current cash bids in Montanna and North Dakota at $12 or better dropped in the pit its awfully hard to feel the love for the CWB.

[charliep]

Not sure I have answers so am going to open up for discussion.

Given Canada's importance in world durum wheat trade, a piece of the puzzle I will be looking at is our crop size and in particular quality. The advice/strategy from my mind may depend a lot of whether you are dealing with 1CWAD 13 protein or a plain Jane 3CWAD. But again, I look for others opinion.

[charliep]

Apologize for putting politics into a good marketing question but I have to note the response the Informa study (page 6 CWB Aug./Sept. Grain Matters) the table there shows the CWB pooled durum price outperformed the North Dakota and Montana one by $1.15/bu and $2.25/bu respectively. Strangely the price signal when you compare the North Dakota (main durum state) to the CWB PRO shows the CWB forecast was only higher than US cash price one month (September).

Fast forward to today. CWB PRO from August $9.18/bu Saskatchewan (note a forecast). North Dakota farmer paid $12/bu.

[charliep]

Should also add the PPO's (assuming you want to be paid on delivery). A 1CWAD 13 protein FPC would pay $7.04/bu
SK. A 100 % EPO would put $6.95/bu in your pocket with an opportunity to enjoy payments above the $9.18/bu. Other than getting mad, I likely wouldn't be prepared to spend the $2/bu.

[charliep]

Update for today.

A 1CWAD 13 protein FPC would pay $7.08/bu SK. A 100 % EPO would put $6.89/bu in your pocket with an opportunity to enjoy payments above the $8.96/bu.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie here is something. Price the US dumped in pit. Milling Durum Sep 30, 08 11.25
Terminal Durum #1 HAD Sep 30, 08 9.75
Also farmers beware of the new elevator game thats happening in Durum. Took this years in to see what its grading Protien good grade they say a #3 looks better than last year. but they tell you they have room for a 3 not a 2 so deliver all you want.ok then I went back with last years #1 and #2 samples and they graded it a #3.
Nice Job CWB sold our durum again to soon. US and southern sask has quality problems rain did not come at right time. So their blending your grain with this and selling all below market for premium. Wink wink.
Also if durum is yielding 30 south of regina all way to US border, isnt this a big durum area.
This revenue sharing is killing farmers.$2.89 a bushel difference.
Charlie is the CWB makes us blow out our wheats as a lost liter doesnt this keep the price lower for crops that pay bills like peas, lentils canola flax oats etc. Have one that low balls prices and takes years to pay you or cash right now. (yes the CWB has programs for earlier payment)

[furrowtickler]

Anyone see the article in the western producer about how fert prices still make sense? Apparently 90bus/ac durum @ $9/bus is figured into their calculations. This is an issue that is so wrong. Whoever wrote the article should get their a$$ kicked.

[wedino]

Saskfarmer, have you tried this?

<a href="http://www.samplenseal.com/">
Sample n Seal</a>