FERTILIZER NEXT TO DROP!!

[chaffmeister]

SASKFARMER3:
Where do you get your prices?

[SASKFARMER3]

http://www.yara.com/en/investor_relations/analyst_information/calculator/index.html#

[Zaphod]

Global urea prices are off about $175/tonne from the highs. Sulphur has dropped a lot too, which says that phos demand is shrinking. Ammonia and phos prices are near their highs, but will come under pressure soon too.

Don't get too excited about low nat gas prices. Most of the nitrogen is made in countries where nat gas is priced way below NA futures. Shrinking demand is what will drive the market down, not the raw material costs.

[agstar77]

Mosaic down to 67 from a high of 160. Does this mean lower prices are coming?

[agstar77]

Mosaic now down to 45. Fertilizer companies all crashing and burning. Hopefully this will bring some reality to N prices.

[jensend]

if you look at the yara price chart, even though prices have dropped lately look where they are now compared to dec. 20, 2007. still way up. the only reason fertilizer prices will drop is if grain prices can't support them. through all the excitement of the last twelve months the only thing that hapened, really, is there was a price spike in grains. that's being washed out now (and possible more still to come according to this morning's syngenta letter) and the rest of the market structure hasn't changed. the cwb exists as it did and the farmer has few sellers for inputs and buyers for production. there is no reason for margins to get any better because there is no more competition across the table from farmers for purchases or sales.

[silverback]

Just read that Mosaic has cut production of phosphate... due to lower demand and lower prices!

Apparently they don't want to return to prices of even last fall.

[bucket]

Mosaic is partly owned by cargill. If they want to hurt you the simple thing to do is not deliver to cargill. Out of all the nonsense gas boycotts theory I have heard - this is one boycott that would work. They would notice if they couldn't fill a train or two. And if farmers told them it was because of their gouging practices that they were not getting anymore grain the cargills would have to do some refiguring.

[agstar77]

Now you see how contracts with grain companies tie you in to deliveries, so the boycott you suggest is not practical. The trend in producer contracts will continue. They have some upside but they also have a darkside too. Once the CWB is eliminated , the combination of production contracts and few delivery points will put more of a gun to your head than the CWB ever did.

[Hopperbin]

Phosphate is one nutrient that we can cut back on to some extent without yield loss providing enough phosphate was used in the past. So no surprise there less demand when the price more than doubles.
In the past I had a supplier tell me not to purchase until later spring, he was right and too bad he is not around anymore. I don't deal with Viterra much but the when I asked the guy there that Fertilizer prices should be softenning he said hahahahahha never heard of that happening yet hahahaha. I failed to see the humour and walked out. I am all for putting pressure on our suppliers, we need to put pressure, change suppliers if need. Otherwise the price will not move. I like the idea of using a coop in these times because we had a very good dividend return last year.