FERTILIZER NEXT TO DROP!!

[charliep]

I made a comment some months back about guys locking in 46-00 for $800-850/tonne.

I hope and these guys priced alot of 09 production at high levels.

Anyone who thinks that fertilizer is going to stay at these levels, when every commodity, metal, energy stock market is in chaos right now is crazy.

Every retailer in the country is saying "prices can't go down our suppliers had these levels booked months ago, the pipeline is full of high priced fertilizer".

To these retailers I see B*##SHIT!!!

Agrium can suck it up just like we are!!

P.S. Anyone with some free cash...........best buy in commodities in your life!!!

[bucket]

The fertilizer companies had their nat gas needs covered months if not years in advance. They have been immune to the increase in nat gas prices and now that the price is back down there is no reason for 850 urea. Its a matter of time before fertilizer comes down and farmers can get back to feeding the world and making money as they deserve. And after oct 14 the grain prices will put western canadian farmers at the forefront of the best producers in the world.

[bucket]

Bucket I really enjoy your posts!! I lack the right words sometimes.

WELL SAID!!

[ProFarmer]

had a fert dealer wanted me to buy phos at 1360 today but I had to take it tommorow, sounded like a used car salesman. Told him to go to h... I am going to sit this one out. Take a cash advance got 25% priced over 13 dollars for canola.I am not going to listen to their scare tactics and borrow 200,000 dollars to put the same amount of fert on as I spent 75,000 for this year. I have until May next year to let this, "free for all" work it self out.

[agstar77]

I agree, we usually fall apply NH3, not this year. If we can't get enough next spring, we will summerfallow some of our land.

[furrowtickler]

Like I said a while ago, let them sweat for a while. I agree with all of you, I do not need to buy an overvalued product 8 months before I "MAY" need it.
Like I said in July, I will feed my famliy first,not theirs. Again, lock the bins do not buy fert and enjoy the finer things in life like family and some time off. As I get a little older, I am lerning to walk away from a paniced crowd.

[kamichel]

I agree with you agstar, I have been twitching at the thought of planting only half my land if Fert is high and Grain prices drop, another reason is my ground is bone dry. I never seen such dry ground in my life, she is dry. I have been continuous cropping for 15 years. And like furrowtickler says about family, I could put the spare time to my family.
I have a supplier that has supposedly booked my dry also but if the price goes down I believe the fert. companies will suck it up. By the way their shares are taking one hell of a licking the last day.

[SASKFARMER3]

They can go to He--.
But here is what were telling our dealers.
1. If we grew 50% more canola wheat oats and barley this year compared to normal (I explained a few posts back I was wrong on over all yield for Sask).
And they want to take almost half my next years crop on just fertilizer prices. It doesn't take a math whiz to figure out what if we did nothing next year, sell what we normally sell this winter and pay bills and then next year sell whats left over and take no fert or chemical for 2009 year. yes 1/2 roundup a few times.
If every farmer told them this instead of buying their product guess what it would drop. Stupid farmers cause stupid prices. Let them eat their high priced product. Their nuts watch china cancel some potash sales soon.
Have a good one 1/3 left to harvest.

[SASKFARMER3]

May 29, 08 434 648 421 1727

Jun 05, 08 445 625 420 1727

Jun 12, 08 453 625 430 1727

Jun 19, 08 510 618 455 1727

Jun 26, 08 525 634 461 1727

Jul 03, 08 545 683 462 1727

Jul 10, 08 545 727 460 1727

Jul 17, 08 625 758 464 1727

Jul 24, 08 650 808 519 1727

Jul 31, 08 775 820 516 1727

Aug 07, 08 810 815 543 1727

Aug 14, 08 800 793 523 1727

Aug 21, 08 843 770 532 1727

Aug 28, 08 853 790 530 2268

Sep 04, 08 880 803 519 2268

Sep 11, 08 880 770 510 2268

Sep 18, 08 870 713 531 2268

Sep 25, 08 860 645 538 2268

[parsley]

Just a thought. What will happen to fertilizer prices and interest rates IF China and India seize a particularly vulnerable moment during this market ride to call in loans that essentially backbone the US? The strong eat the weak.

Patsley

[chaffmeister]

SASKFARMER3:
Where do you get your prices?

[SASKFARMER3]

http://www.yara.com/en/investor_relations/analyst_information/calculator/index.html#

[Zaphod]

Global urea prices are off about $175/tonne from the highs. Sulphur has dropped a lot too, which says that phos demand is shrinking. Ammonia and phos prices are near their highs, but will come under pressure soon too.

Don't get too excited about low nat gas prices. Most of the nitrogen is made in countries where nat gas is priced way below NA futures. Shrinking demand is what will drive the market down, not the raw material costs.

[agstar77]

Mosaic down to 67 from a high of 160. Does this mean lower prices are coming?

[agstar77]

Mosaic now down to 45. Fertilizer companies all crashing and burning. Hopefully this will bring some reality to N prices.