do they mean depression?

[charliep]

Hopperbin

Will note your comments on China and India. 25 % (at best) in these countries are middle class as defined by them (not north american middle class). 75 % are subsistance (mainly farmers).

North Americas demands to meet our higher life style has driven by ability to get cheap goods from not only these countries but many others. As North America and Western Europe slows down, demand for these luxury goods will also slow. This will impact the developing worlds economies/ability to drive their growth. Already starting to see in the container market - less need for containers/boats on the ocean hauling stuff.

[jensend]

i understand schiff's reasoning and i don't disagree with it. whether or not there is weimar republic type of inflation or not depends how much money the americans (and europeans) decide to print. it seems to me that the burst of inflation in commodities we've seen over the past twelve months may have been enough to cripple the major economies and now things are in a prolonged deflationary slump. i don't know which way it will go but i do think we're in for some very tough times. inflation has not been very good to farmers or ranchers. when everything inflates (as we've just seen) it gives rise to increased financial risk and greatly increased cost of everything from inputs through machinery and energy. i guess i better get the horses trained better!

[jensend]

The bailout will only be a temporary fix.

Laughed my ass off today when I heard the next move is to lower intrest rates. Yeah lowering intrest rates is going to fix the problem.

Anyone pull up a an John Deere chart, or Agco chart lately?? Local dealers are sold out of combines for 09. Might be a good time to be putting some money in machinery. LOL!!

[agstar77]

One of the problems in the U.S. is the lack of available credit for consumer loans. e.g. cars. I wonder if this has spread to the Ag sector and if anyone knows how much credit is needed to put in the U.S. crop. Not to mention financing new combines and tractors. I suggest there will be no shortage of equipment if you have cash.

[jensend]

i've read that some calf sales in montana were cancelled because buyers can't get financing so can't buy feeders. the article in the globe and mail this morning saying that the crunch is showing up in canada is not encouraging. it's going to affect all of us one way or another.

[furrowtickler]

I agree with you on that one agstar. The value of one's grain/oilseed inventory has been dropping daily as well - this may have big ramifications for these future purchases.