‘Out of panic come great long-term opportunities'
Article Comments JOHN PARTRIDGE
Globe and Mail Update
October 6, 2008 at 2:17 PM EDT
Vincent Delisle, equity strategist, Scotia Capital, Montreal
“My read on today is panic, extreme oversold conditions and certainly from a near-term perspective, this has to be viewed as a buying opportunity.”
Andrew Martyn, vice-president and portfolio manager, Davis-Rea Ltd., Toronto
“It's too late to sell for the vast majority of stocks out there. You've got to think like a buyer now and you have to take advantage of people who want to throw up stock on 1,000-point-down days. . .
“The right decision today would be buying call options for six months. If they go back up, you have trapped these values. If they go back down brutally, you can re-establish positions lower.”
Jim Stanford, economist, Canadian Auto Workers union, Toronto
“Canada had its own bubble, the commodities bubble, that inflated right alongside the American subprime bubble. Now our bubble has popped, too – and Canadians will pay for the price for putting so many of our eggs in the commodities basket.
“We learned in the 1930s that government can't just sit on the sidelines when the private-sector economy goes bananas. We need government to wade right in there, get its hands dirty, and do everything it can to support jobs and spending. The question is, after decades of obsession with deficits, will we need another depression before we remember that lesson?”
Al Goldman, chief market strategist and vice-president, AG Edwards, St. Louis
“We do have panic, and out of panic come great long-term opportunities for people who can buy when it looks like it's going down to zero and we can start all over.
“Unfortunately ... it's very, very difficult for most investors to buy when the market is most attractive, and I'm not calling bottom here: I'm just saying I think it's a great time for people to start getting mentally ready to do some long-term buying – kind of ‘Get ready, get set, but don't go yet'.”
Murray Leith, director of investment research, Odlum Brown Ltd., Vancouver
“I don't think we're getting a lot of panic phone calls. We probably will, by the time this thing is all over ... There's definitely going to be a global recession. That's already in the cards. It just depends how deep it is ...
“This isn't the Great Depression part two, or Japan ... The policy mistakes [of those crashes] aren't being made here.”
Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist BMO Capital Markets, Toronto
“Trying to do an economic forecast in this kind of turmoil is a bit like trying to put a value on your house while the kitchen is on fire. You just don't know how long the fire is going to go on for, or how much damage it's going to do.”
Myles Zyblock, chief institutional strategist, RBC Capital Markets, Toronto
“The financial crisis has led to de-leveraging, and that's forcing a lot of investors to sell into beaten-down markets.
“We're waking up to the fact that there are no real easy solutions to this and that $700-billion. . .may not be sufficient.”
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief, Stock Picker's Almanac, New York
“The 2004 low on the Dow was 9,750 and as we get to that level, we are encroaching on a technical breaking point.
“I'm starting to see fear mount further, and I'm not sure it's over yet.
Tobias Levkovich, strategist Citigroup Global Markets, New York
“An equity market bottom appears to be forming. The combination of non-financial cash holdings to equity market cap levels, peak-like volatility, typical market pullbacks around recessions and the sense of resignation within investor sentiment all suggest that stock prices are near a bottom.”
Peter Morici, professor, University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission
“It's official! The [U.S.] bank bailout has not worked. Global stock prices are in a panic rush to the bottom.
“The bank bailout cannot fulfill its primary mission to restore investor confidence, because it does only half the job. [It] will provide banks with much-needed liquidity but it does not address the compensation and management practices on Wall Street that drove irresponsible decisions and gave rise to the crisis. It does not address the void of sound leadership at the top of major financial institutions like Citigroup and Merrill Lynch.”
--------------------------------------
The reason I posted this is to take note of the general attitude of the comments.
Almost all say the world is not comming to an end and that things will recover once people start looking at the situation from the vantage point of opportunity
Except of course the guy from the autoworkers union, he wants the government to spend like a drunken sailor propping up jobs. He's already decided were headed into a depression.
But then again if you represent workers from an industry that has spent the last twenty years perfecting the art of building crappy products you might see the world as he does.
Article Comments JOHN PARTRIDGE
Globe and Mail Update
October 6, 2008 at 2:17 PM EDT
Vincent Delisle, equity strategist, Scotia Capital, Montreal
“My read on today is panic, extreme oversold conditions and certainly from a near-term perspective, this has to be viewed as a buying opportunity.”
Andrew Martyn, vice-president and portfolio manager, Davis-Rea Ltd., Toronto
“It's too late to sell for the vast majority of stocks out there. You've got to think like a buyer now and you have to take advantage of people who want to throw up stock on 1,000-point-down days. . .
“The right decision today would be buying call options for six months. If they go back up, you have trapped these values. If they go back down brutally, you can re-establish positions lower.”
Jim Stanford, economist, Canadian Auto Workers union, Toronto
“Canada had its own bubble, the commodities bubble, that inflated right alongside the American subprime bubble. Now our bubble has popped, too – and Canadians will pay for the price for putting so many of our eggs in the commodities basket.
“We learned in the 1930s that government can't just sit on the sidelines when the private-sector economy goes bananas. We need government to wade right in there, get its hands dirty, and do everything it can to support jobs and spending. The question is, after decades of obsession with deficits, will we need another depression before we remember that lesson?”
Al Goldman, chief market strategist and vice-president, AG Edwards, St. Louis
“We do have panic, and out of panic come great long-term opportunities for people who can buy when it looks like it's going down to zero and we can start all over.
“Unfortunately ... it's very, very difficult for most investors to buy when the market is most attractive, and I'm not calling bottom here: I'm just saying I think it's a great time for people to start getting mentally ready to do some long-term buying – kind of ‘Get ready, get set, but don't go yet'.”
Murray Leith, director of investment research, Odlum Brown Ltd., Vancouver
“I don't think we're getting a lot of panic phone calls. We probably will, by the time this thing is all over ... There's definitely going to be a global recession. That's already in the cards. It just depends how deep it is ...
“This isn't the Great Depression part two, or Japan ... The policy mistakes [of those crashes] aren't being made here.”
Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist BMO Capital Markets, Toronto
“Trying to do an economic forecast in this kind of turmoil is a bit like trying to put a value on your house while the kitchen is on fire. You just don't know how long the fire is going to go on for, or how much damage it's going to do.”
Myles Zyblock, chief institutional strategist, RBC Capital Markets, Toronto
“The financial crisis has led to de-leveraging, and that's forcing a lot of investors to sell into beaten-down markets.
“We're waking up to the fact that there are no real easy solutions to this and that $700-billion. . .may not be sufficient.”
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief, Stock Picker's Almanac, New York
“The 2004 low on the Dow was 9,750 and as we get to that level, we are encroaching on a technical breaking point.
“I'm starting to see fear mount further, and I'm not sure it's over yet.
Tobias Levkovich, strategist Citigroup Global Markets, New York
“An equity market bottom appears to be forming. The combination of non-financial cash holdings to equity market cap levels, peak-like volatility, typical market pullbacks around recessions and the sense of resignation within investor sentiment all suggest that stock prices are near a bottom.”
Peter Morici, professor, University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission
“It's official! The [U.S.] bank bailout has not worked. Global stock prices are in a panic rush to the bottom.
“The bank bailout cannot fulfill its primary mission to restore investor confidence, because it does only half the job. [It] will provide banks with much-needed liquidity but it does not address the compensation and management practices on Wall Street that drove irresponsible decisions and gave rise to the crisis. It does not address the void of sound leadership at the top of major financial institutions like Citigroup and Merrill Lynch.”
--------------------------------------
The reason I posted this is to take note of the general attitude of the comments.
Almost all say the world is not comming to an end and that things will recover once people start looking at the situation from the vantage point of opportunity
Except of course the guy from the autoworkers union, he wants the government to spend like a drunken sailor propping up jobs. He's already decided were headed into a depression.
But then again if you represent workers from an industry that has spent the last twenty years perfecting the art of building crappy products you might see the world as he does.
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