Canola market bottom?

[furrowtickler]

Cotton, S/F, what do you think? I quote this from Larry's page today - "Canola gained additional support from talk that prices have fallen below the cost of production and farmer selling is apt to shutdown accordingly."
Anyone still think we do not have some influance? Hold tight and sell in small increments if needed at all, as others have stated. Watch for the basis at ADM to narrow for the line companies will be the last to do so. My thinking is that wait for a good basis from ADM - cargil et all, as they NEED canola everyday, then hold out for a futures price were you can make money for your operation then see if the local elevators can match it. If you are not close to a crusher, go hunting or just ignore the pressure for a while and enjoy family life.
BTW, I have a 6000bus canola contract that is available at $9.59/bus del N.B. if anyone needs cash flow, if not I will let it go early next week.

[agstar77]

Hah! Hah! Hah! Hah! What a brilliant and inciteful comment. I would be ashamed to sputter that if I was a market master! And what part of ridiculously cheap did they not get. The same could be said of a lot of stocks today , way too cheap. There should be a big rally shortly.

[BreadWinner]

Agstar77 watch your beloved CWB pool price shrivel down to nothing. I am sure they are making record sales during this time of depressed prices just to make sure we dont miss out. Keep the farmer poor that way he always has to sell. By the way 12 months ago when you should have been forward contracting somthing, canola was only worth $7.80 per bushel so $10.00 for this fall probably seemed pretty good.
P.S. cant wait till those "Going out of buisness" pop up adds go on the CWB website.

[Fransisco]

It's way too early to call a bottom.

[furrowtickler]

And wich part is brilliant and insightfull? Agstar, heed what breadwinner has just said, watch the PRO's fall between your fingers for the next 12 months. There is at least a glimmer of hope for some of what we produce - BTW what are the options now to protect the current PRO? I think it will cost you something around $100/tn to protect the current price. CWB working for you right?

[agstar77]

The line about canola prices falling below the cost of production.

[furrowtickler]

Agstar, What is your COP on canola? What is the average COP on canola in western canada taking into consideration fert, fuel, seed, chem, depreciation, interest, rent, land costs, storage, transportation, wages,insecticide, fungicide, and oh yeah - basis at your local delivery point?
Unless canola is produced on land that is paid for, smf, with no machienery costs and very low or no wages - current price levels are close to - just below or just above the COP for the average western candaian canola grower. Nothing to laugh at for those who need to sell.

[agstar77]

Depends whether you grow the average 30 bus crop or the imaginary 50 bus crop.

[Hopperbin]

Agstar every feed buyer that I know is watching the CWB pro on soft wheat right now and pricing accordingly. The reality at the moment is humans are going hungry and the pigs are well fed and ethanol plants getting well booked.

[cottonpicken]

The guys buying ag stocks think its bottomed.