Hey folks, what about CWB 2002-03 marketing performance;
If the CWB refuses to take C Series grain offered by farmers, it will finish off the 2002-03 crop year with the perfect worst possible combinations of marketing decisions any marketer could make to maximise farmers grain returns.
1.In May/June/July of 2002 the CWB was selling new crop 02 wheat, at clear-out prices, while many farmers were seeing their crops roast and die in the field. The CWB was in denial, and didn’t wake up until too late.
2.In early August after the CWB woke up, it found it had committed a much larger than normal percentage of 02 harvest grain sales than it felt comfortable with, so what did the CWB do? They froze up and stopped selling new crop grain, claimed they were withdrawing from the market, then cleared out old crop instore grain to fill committed contracts.
3.Then prices plummeted through Nov/December 02 the CWB manipulated election results by holding up the PRO. The Nov 02 PRO (1CWRS 13.5) was 296/t, (Dropping from $312 in Oct) and by January of 2003 (the PRO down to $274/t), the CWB saw it needed to sell at least some of the 2002 harvest at good prices.
But the CWB soon found sales values were already down close to initial prices. So the CWB sold a little, but gambled that a spring rally would allow better pricing opportunities for the rest of the 2002 harvest.
4.March rolled around (the PRO was $256) and it was clear mistakes could not stop the pool from going into a deficit if the market kept dropping.
5.May brought the strategy of buying market share back internationally, and like DTN sales reported ($177US in store Brazil) to CWB sales in Brazil the CWB made sales at huge losses to the pool accounts.
6.Now the CWB directors are caught big time. The CWB speculated on procured grain when prices were high. To not accept “C” series grain because of early mistakes would be unforgivable to many farmers, especially when the February CWB contract was canceled, leaving only one contract to offer CWB grains for half the crop year, on May 30th. Would the CWB intentionally leave farmers holding the mistakes?
Could the CWB be this evil?
7.I speculate Minister Goodale recently got pressure from Manley and the Treasury Board, because the Canadian economy is falling apart while the CWB pool deficits mount higher daily.
Who will control the CWB, farmers, or Goodale (the villain of convenience he is) and Treasury Board?
If the CWB refuses to take C Series grain offered by farmers, it will finish off the 2002-03 crop year with the perfect worst possible combinations of marketing decisions any marketer could make to maximise farmers grain returns.
1.In May/June/July of 2002 the CWB was selling new crop 02 wheat, at clear-out prices, while many farmers were seeing their crops roast and die in the field. The CWB was in denial, and didn’t wake up until too late.
2.In early August after the CWB woke up, it found it had committed a much larger than normal percentage of 02 harvest grain sales than it felt comfortable with, so what did the CWB do? They froze up and stopped selling new crop grain, claimed they were withdrawing from the market, then cleared out old crop instore grain to fill committed contracts.
3.Then prices plummeted through Nov/December 02 the CWB manipulated election results by holding up the PRO. The Nov 02 PRO (1CWRS 13.5) was 296/t, (Dropping from $312 in Oct) and by January of 2003 (the PRO down to $274/t), the CWB saw it needed to sell at least some of the 2002 harvest at good prices.
But the CWB soon found sales values were already down close to initial prices. So the CWB sold a little, but gambled that a spring rally would allow better pricing opportunities for the rest of the 2002 harvest.
4.March rolled around (the PRO was $256) and it was clear mistakes could not stop the pool from going into a deficit if the market kept dropping.
5.May brought the strategy of buying market share back internationally, and like DTN sales reported ($177US in store Brazil) to CWB sales in Brazil the CWB made sales at huge losses to the pool accounts.
6.Now the CWB directors are caught big time. The CWB speculated on procured grain when prices were high. To not accept “C” series grain because of early mistakes would be unforgivable to many farmers, especially when the February CWB contract was canceled, leaving only one contract to offer CWB grains for half the crop year, on May 30th. Would the CWB intentionally leave farmers holding the mistakes?
Could the CWB be this evil?
7.I speculate Minister Goodale recently got pressure from Manley and the Treasury Board, because the Canadian economy is falling apart while the CWB pool deficits mount higher daily.
Who will control the CWB, farmers, or Goodale (the villain of convenience he is) and Treasury Board?
Comment