Our area looks like Sept 20 instead of Oct 20

[skhadenuf]

Well snappy I guess some better sell before she hits 7 bucks or lower , I think I'm going to wait til March or April, I am not saying there is a poor crop overall but there was too much hail, drought and early froze stuff that I know for a fact was not great in fact worked under for this to be huge crop. If I am wrong I'm wrong we'll see come April May. Those fields that looked like crap and then got some rain and looked nice flowering still had half the plants and maybe looked all nice and yellow at 60 miles an hour going down the road, but reality is when talking to guys after harvested lots of 15 to 25 bushel acre crops.

[skhadenuf]

The crop is huge. End of story.


Is it going to make one bit of difference in the big scheme of things???

Nope.

[Hopperbin]

Through in 2 new crushers in Yorkton and Cargill's second in Clavet and we may have 0 basis back at my location instead of the minus 70's.

[SASKFARMER3]

Damn rain shut us down this morning. Yea you just have to love when two storms join over your farm.

[vvalk]

Snappy. You are right. Drove from the US border to 2 hrs north of Edmonton. I would say 30% to 40% of the feilds were canola and most running over 40. My farm for the fist time had 40 bus avg over every acre. Even down in Foremost counrty there was big yeilds. The biggest ever.

[vvalk]

Look for a 3 to maybe 3.5 million tonne carry over. Thats 30% stocks to use ratio and previous record is 22%. Unless soy goes to the moon I think we will see $7 canola. They won't even have to buy acres come spring.

[skhadenuf]

Like I said previous, better sell her all right now then cause its around 8.25 or so. We'll see come march or april. Which crops acres were cut back so much to have all these canola acres? Must be a run up on the price of that commodity coming with less acres. With fertilizer, seed, chemical and fuel the price they are they won't be buying acres alright because nobody's gonna seed it for 7.00.

[charliep]

Things that make me perhaps not so negative.

1) Canadian dollar decline relative to the US will make our crops more competitive. US dollar is rallying relative to most currencies.

2) Ocean freight is also coming down somewhat.

3) Cheaper prices will keep consumption up around the world. Food is a necessity and will get priority. Problems in the US ethanol industry are a dark cloud that needs to be watched.

4) World crop supplies are not excessive so large crops are needed again in 2009. The world will go through the normal number of crop production scares over the spring/summer of 2009.

[vvalk]

Charlie What about rail freight. Even if we can sell it, can we freight another 2 million tonnes to the coast?

[charliep]

No doubt carryovers will increase this year. Not quite as negative as you are on canola carryover July 31, 2009 but a recognition of lots of canola in other areas of the world that will impact our ability to export.

What is the opportunity to increase grain and oilseed disapearance domestically and across the border? Increased Canadian canola crush capacity. More livestock feeding. Ethanol plants on the prairies. More grain shipped south.

On port capacity, I suspect there should be more opportunity to ship grain off the west. Another thread has comments on need to improve rail company performance. I suspect there are also things that can be done from a supply chain/logistics management to increase rail capacity/terminal performance (i.e. more than just railways that amount of grain shipped west).

From conversations here, there may be more willingness for farmers to store grain if prices stay at current levels.