Things to Follow This Week/Strategies

[charliep]

What will people be following this week.

My eyes will be on feed grains. Got an email from someone who took exception to my trading range in the front page Barley Country article (Alberta Barley Commission newsletter) and have to admit to likely being over optimistic but done a month ago/didn't see corn at close to $4/bu (bouncing higher today).

Where is everyone seeing local feed barley bids? Thoughts about CWB opportunities for feed barley? I note the decline in the mid month feed barley PRO to $198 or close to $3/bu local elevator. A CWB fax I get puts Portland barley prices at US $205/tonne or Cdn $245/tonne. Not likely big volume business here (i.e. panamax size to Saudi Arabia) but likely the ability to ship a 25,000 tonne boat or two (Japanese business).

Feed wheat perhaps more frustrating. Actual amount of feed wheat across the prairies, ability to blend higher quality wheat and relationship domestic market to the CWB PRO will all impact domestic feed wheat prices.

[charliep]

Actually am going to toss up the CWB Guaranteed delivery contracts that being offered.

Feed wheat Offer 1

Feed wheat, all classes except Canada Western Red Winter

GDC for Feed Barley Pool A Offer 1 - 2

Feed Barley Pool A Offer 1 - 2

Details can be found at:

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/contracts/guaranteed/

[Hopperbin]

Feed wheat through the board sucks. 100 percent of pro payment now costs 2 dollars per bushel. So you end up with 3.25 in pocket here. I expect feed wheat to crash this Thursday when the new pro comes out, the feed grain buyers are watching the pro. I accuse the CWB of taking money from the feed grains sold and also accuse them of not exporting feed grains so as to flood the market here to make themselves look good in the pool accounting.

[charliep]

Has any seen any international feed wheat prices? I haven't but sometimes use Portland corn to gage.

Portland corn prices are about $9.50/cwt today (100 pounds) or US $210/tonne. In Canadian bucks, that is about $240/tonne. To convert to a local price, you would knock off fobbing Vancouver prices of $15/tonne, likely cleaning of close to $5/tonne (don't know why we clean feed grains), rail costs $40/tonne, local elevator elevation of $15/tonne and $5/tonne of carry/profit in the case of open market or CWB costs. That puts a local feed wheat price at about $160/tonne or $4.35/bu.

Unrelated but how aware are farmers of the deductions/rising costs of moving grain bin to customer?