Pro's for today!!

[Hopperbin]

Starting to get very upset with the CWB pro's.
Without a doubt the pro is going to get crushed.

Agstar, Vader, did the CWB make no salees at high levels?? I gurantee after today the Pro, on HRS will right where the futures are today.

How is this possible if they made "average" sales throughout the year??

Time to open the books!!!

[charliep]

Just curious is any would care to stick their neck out and forecast the PRO drop today.

My bets are on $25/tonne. Should be $30 but the CWB wouldn't take it down the full amount.

Logic based on December contracts (should look at March May and July as well but too lazy/you can do that.

Yesterday - MGE converted Dec. futures - $275.76/tonne. Sept. 24 (day before Sept. PRO) - $305.65/tonne. Decline - about $30.

KCBT converted Dec. futures - $252.19/tonne, Sept. 24 - $288.31. Decline - $36.12.

CBT converted Dec. futures - $237.62/tonne. Sept. 24 - $277.39. Decline - $39.77.

Don't want to add pain but thankful for the drop in value of the loonie. Yesterdays loonie was 80 cents in the CWB calculations. A month ago it was 97 cents. You would be enduring an extra buck/bu of pain today with a stronger 97 cent loonie.

[bucket]

down 45 on cwrs

down 55 on durum

INCOMPETENT

[chaffmeister]

charlie brings up a good point. Impact of FX.

I also watch EPO discounts in the hopes it will shed some light on the mystery of CWB pricing.

Sept 26th:
Cdn dollar............1.0330 (0.9661)
CWRS 100% EPO disc....$48.00

Oct 22nd:
Cdn dollar............1.2533 (0.7969)
CWRS 100% EPO disc....$92.50

A weaker Cdn dollar strengthens price prospects in Cdn dollars, so I wonder what the EPO would have been if the exchange rate hadn't moved.

This might be simplistic analysis, but this EPO discount is telling me that the CWB figures the current market is about $100 below the current PRO.

Since we're about half way through the selling period for the crop year, I'm going to guess that the PRO should be down by $50/tonne.

But, for purely political reasons, I suspect the CWB will drop it by only $25 (or less).

[charliep]

Agree with the comment on use of the EPO premiums as a guide to initial payments.

September PRO $331 port 1CWRS 13.5.

Oct. 23 100 % EPO money in pocket after premium paid - $239. Enjoy payments over $331.

90% EPO money in pocket after premium paid - $236.15. Enjoy payments over $297.15.

80 % EPO money in pocket after premium paid - $233.05. Enjoy payment over $264.80.

FPC $231.

[charliep]

Mistake alert. FPC $270.33.

[charliep]

Previous posting with this afternoon's/October PRO information.

September PRO $331 port 1CWRS 13.5. OCTOBER PRO $307

Oct. 23 100 % EPO money in pocket after premium paid - $239. Enjoy payments over $331. OCTOBER 24 100% EPO AFTER PREMIUMS PAID - $277.50. ENJOY PAYMENTS OVER $307.

90% EPO money in pocket after premium paid - $236.15. Enjoy payments over $297.15. OCTOBER 24 90 % EPO MONEY IN POCKET AFTER PREMIUM PAID - $233.05. ENJOY PAYMENTS OVER $276.30.

80 % EPO money in pocket after premium paid - $233.05. Enjoy payment over $264.80. OCTOBER 24 EPO MONEY IN POCKET AFTER THE PREMIUM PAID - $223.85. ENJOY PAYMENTS OVER $245.60.

FPC yesterday - $270.33. TODAY $270.96.

INITIAL PAYMENT - $219.20.

SKILL TESTING QUESTION. WHEN THE TAX PAYER GUARANTEES AN INITIAL PAYMENT OF $219.20, WHY WOULD A FARMER GIVE UP $21.75 OF EPO PREMIUM TO GENERATE ANOTHER $4.65 OF CASHFLOW? DOES THIS EPO PROGRAM AS OFFERED TODAY MEET FARMERS BUSINESS NEEDS?

[charliep]

ERROR ALERT. TODAY 100 % EPO AFTER PREMIUMS SHOULD HAVE BEEN $237.50 (NOT $277.50)

Oct. 23 100 % EPO money in pocket after premium paid - $239. Enjoy payments over $331. OCTOBER 24 100% EPO AFTER PREMIUMS PAID - $237.50. ENJOY PAYMENTS OVER $307.