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October CWB PRO Released

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    October CWB PRO Released

    From press release.

    Begin Quote

    "Pool Return Outlooks
    2008-09 crop year
    DATE: October 23, 2008
    Wheat, Durum Values Lower While Malting Barley Unchanged in CWB 2008-09 PRO
    Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its October Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2008-09 crop year. Milling wheat values declined $24 per tonne from the September PRO, while milling durum values are down $37. Feed barley is down $5 and designated barley remains unchanged from the mid-October PRO.


    The decline in the Canadian dollar has helped support all four pool return outlooks, as has a dramatic drop in ocean freight rates. The Canadian dollar is at its lowest levels in four years and ocean freight rates are now approaching six year lows.


    The uncertainty and concern in financial, equity and commodity markets continues to impact the buying behaviour of grain customers. In general, grain processors are attempting to reduce risk exposure. In the short term, this results in reduced inventories, hand-to-mouth purchasing and delays in capital investments. Weaker demand at a time of record world wheat supply is an underlying factor in the dramatic declines we have seen in grain market prices. In the current environment of global economic uncertainty, grain market price volatility has the potential to continue to significantly impact forecast pool returns." End quote.

    source: http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2008_20081023.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2008-09

    As expected. No comment.

    #2
    Charlie
    As usual we neglect to say that a large percentage of the increased wheat supply in the world is of poor quality. How come reporting of milling wheat supplies never account for the percentage that ends up in the feed market. Mid range Pro's for CPS are at the point they match my feed wheat pricing. Would note that ocean freight and crashing dollar which is positive news is never counted by the CWB as strongly as negative news. In an open market such a conservative player would never be in the game. Didn't check but what was the impact of the shrinking PRO's on FPCs.

    Comment


      #3
      FPC values pretty much stayed the same.

      1CWRS 13.5 Oct. 23-$270.96 Oct. 22-$270.33

      1CWRW select 11.5 Oct. 23- $243.29 Oct. 22 -
      $235.66

      1SWS Oct. 23 - $205 Oct. 22 - $201.81

      1CWAD 13 Oct. 23 - $308.29 Oct. 22 - $311.18

      Comment


        #4
        craig

        One thing I have everyone note is the complete
        and utter stupidity. I realize only an idiot would
        sign an EPO for CPS/CWRW but why even put the
        numbers out.


        Reason I am irate. The PRO today for 1CPS wheat
        is $268/tonne port. The 100 % EPO discount is
        $68/tonne or a deposited in the bank cheque of
        $200/tonne. 80 % and 90 % EPO values are not
        offered because they would be below initial
        payment (the CWB would send a farmer a bill).
        Initial payment is $192/tonne port. So for $8 of
        cash flow benefit a farmer gives up $68/tonne of
        potential gain if you believe the PRO.

        I am likely the only one who follows this. Most
        farmers would look at this, say it was stupid and
        not sign. My question is why the CWB posts
        irrelevant numbers to farmers. Competition would
        make the CWB responsive to the market/offer risk
        management services that are useable. Enough
        ranting.

        Comment


          #5
          Charlie:

          If it makes you feel less alone, I follow this stuff too. Afraid I don't get irate, but I sure shake my head a lot.

          Comment


            #6
            That means we are getting a lot closer to the pools running a deficit. Just wait for it. There's a lot of crop year left and buyers are backing away from the market. Either the CWB will get aggressive to hit their export target and drive prices even lower or they will back away and farmers will end up storing a lot of wheat (again). Pick your poison.

            Comment


              #7
              Charlie,

              Just think what signal this EPO premium sends buyers.

              "just wait... and you will be able to get the CWB to sell for a 30% discount"... if not why would the CWB charge such huge discounts?

              This is madness at CWB peak... marketing at its worst!

              Comment


                #8
                Tom think it is another CWB shot at trying to support the pros for later. Although a very sad one. Yes Charlie they should not even post deals like that.

                Comment


                  #9
                  You guys are assuming that the CWB realizes that such options are non-viable in the real world.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Checking,

                    The sad part is the CWB sales dept. is coming up with these prices/projections... and buyers see transparent market signals of where the CWB sales dept. believe prices are headed... for the rest of this pool year!

                    BINGO... just be at the right place... at the right time... and WHAT A DEAL.

                    SOLD At prices you and I would never consider selling at.

                    Comment

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