Fertilizer plummeting from high.

[furrowtickler]

Thanks, more ammo for the stuborn a$$es around here.

[cottonpicken]

The window of opportunity may be tight.

As grain prices bounce so will fertilizer.



I'll bet a shiny nickel all the big boy suppliers called each other up and said we wont sell our expensive product at a loss.

Fortunatly the market usually finds a way to overwhelm these types.

Everyone should keep calling out the fert prices in their area and sooner or later one of these guys will blink.

[SASKFARMER3]

I was at a meeting in Monday on how to handle the high cost of fertilizer. It was bloody crazy to say the least. These experts actually believe that Dumb farmers will buy the product to produce a crop at a loss in 2009. When I mentioned that its dropping all over the world they looked at me as if I was from Mars. Its just a blip and western Canada grain prices are strong. Excuse me has any one checked the prices lately(their higher than 2004). But what I got out of this meeting was yes the companies are all on the same song sheet. Keep telling farmers that the price has to be where its at(over and over and over) and blitz the media etc with the same song over and over and over. Sooner or later farmers will purchase for a huge profit for us and who cares what happens with grain prices. Keep telling farmers that the price is high and they will fall for it every time.
ITS BS Boys plain BS.

[Hopperbin]

Cotton who says these suppliers even bought, don't they buy when us growers start writing checks?

[cottonpicken]

If they hadent bought they would be offering us an actual international price.

This market is just like any other commodity market,the price is the price-you cant argue it.

[SASKFARMER3]

Nitrogen price relief may be spelled as r-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n. Three sputtering global economic factors are converging to kill these "bull" markets.

Record high crude oil prices primed most free world economic engines to misfire, bringing on a surge in production and exploration – just as skyrocketing fuel costs arrived to hammer consumer spending. Natural gas prices, closely linked with oil and the precursor of nitrogen fertilizers, climbed with oil. Then, like oil, natural gas prices began choking on rising global production and new U.S. discoveries – in the face of slowing global demand.

Then came Uncle Sam's infamous bank bail-out and spreading global financial shockwaves. A world-wide economic slow down suggest declining demand for natural gas for non-ag industrial uses.

From June's wellhead peak of $10.82, natural gas prices plummeted 33% by early October according to U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. That projection was made before the Down Jones went over the cliff. And the EIA warned that a major world-wise economic downturn would significantly impact for gas and oil.

Normally, natural gas prices rise heading into the winter season. But EIA officials recently reported that supply concerns "are dissipating due to abundant supplies in storage and continued reports of ample domestic onshore production."

How that impacts nitrogen?

Nitrogen prices seem to be following oil and natural gas downward. Nitrogen fertilizers are directly related to the price of natural gas (methane), explains Eddie Funderburg, ag consultant for Oklahoma-based Noble Foundation. A ton of anhydrous ammonia fertilizer requires 33,500 cubic feet of natural gas – about 85% of the cost of manufacturing it.

Using $7 per thousand cubic feet, it takes $234.50 of natural gas to make a ton of anhydrous ammonia. Even with ample transportation and marketing margins added on, that's far from the $1,000-a-ton anhydrous prices commanded earlier this year.

As of September 26, U.S. natural gas inventories, according to EIA, were at 50 billion cubic feet above the five-year average. Domestic production is projected to increase nearly 10% for 2008, without tapping the country's newest and largest find in the Northeast.

Global demand for ammonia also rose with oil and gas demand. And ammonia manufacturers have responded, according to an October report by Global Industry Analysts. Pulled by rising fertilizer use in Latin America, Africa and Asia, future growth in ammonia production capacity has been targeted to those regions.

GIA projects worldwide ammonia supplies to rise by 2010. It projects world ammonia markets to climb from 147.6 million metric tons in 2008 to 167 million metric tons by 2012.

However, that prediction is predicated on strong global economic growth and rising gross domestic product. Going into November, both were shrinking on a global scale.

Plummeting open market (speculative) nitrogen trading also is dragging on nitrogen prices. By late October, according to Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures economist, fertilizer morphed into a buyer's market.

Urea at the Gulf hit $300 a ton. Farm gate prices could be had at $650 to $700 a ton, if anyone wanted to buy. But Knorr points out, many dealers locked in much higher prices. Without competition, they may be unwilling to write down their price.

[timm]

Sorry 745 at P and H Moosomin

[SASKFARMER3]

This Week's Prices
for the week beginning thursday 30/10/2008

DAP fob Tampa (metric tonne) $847.50
DAP fob Central Florida (short ton) $765.00
DAP fob NOLA (short ton) $702.50

Urea (Prill) fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne) $268.75
Urea (Prill) fob Baltic (metric tonne) $255.00
Urea (prill) fob China bulk/bagged (metric tonne) No Market
Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (short ton) $314.00
Urea (gran) fob Middle East (metric tonne) $318.00

Ammonia fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne) $342.50
Ammonia cfr Tampa (metric tonne) $575.00

Ammonium nitrate fob NOLA (short ton) No Market

UAN (32% N) fob NOLA (short ton) $293.75

molten sulphur cfr Tampa/delivered C.Florida ($/long ton) $150.75
solid sulphur - Adnoc monthly lifting price at Ruwais ($/tonne) $200.00

[SASKFARMER3]

Oct 16, 08 830 340 494 1943

Oct 23, 08 498 305 475 1943

Oct 30, 08 360 280 484 1943

[SASKFARMER3]

http://www.fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/pdf/2008/TheMarket-103108.pdf

[gustgd]

FNA called they were at 755 tonne pay now product in country. pick up/ delivery Nov.
I never bought but this is lowest so far in Davidson area.

At what prices will others start committing?
Where should it be in others opinions?

[makar]

Pioneer just quoted me $900 for 46 because although their cost has not gone down they are matching a competitor. This is in the peace country. I doubt anyone is biting.