Is the worst over?

[malleefarmer]

Taliking wheat mostly, is the worst over?

See last week on dec contract it tried to break through 500, think traded to 503 but bounced off.

Any thoughts cotton, sask charlie tom anyone.

Next question when prices eventually do spike upwards say next march april how high will the be 600 to 700 cents, i doubt we will see the lofty highs which occured in feb/arch this year.

crops in aust vary from good to no harvest all ive not started yet.

In west aust the crops are yielding better than expected and seems as though in south aust its the same but quality is poor here low bushel wieghts

thanks in advance

[TOM4CWB]

Mallee,

Is the worst over?

It took decades to get here... is it possible to be over in a month or 2?

Restructuring of the global economic system... will be the goal from what I see.

1 global currency.

The new world order.

How long will this take Mallee?

Have we had enough pain to push us into this solution?

I DOUBT IT!

[mbratrud]

Assuming your referring to Canola. $9.50 to $10.00 per bushel in a defered position is likely as good as it get in my opinion. There is a tonne of seed out there and a wilingness to sell at $10 ,so no need for it to go higher. Unless we have a complete reverse perfect storm in the coming months.... and who knows!! All that is clear right now is the S&D looks bearish and we are going into a world recession. This does not bode well for $600 plus Canola unfortunatly.
$500 is doughtful really...

[malleefarmer]

was reffering to wheat

ps none of you guys have wool of course but wool prices have crashed here in aust by around 25% in the space of four weeks to be below the cost of production.

[cottonpicken]

I see a massive sling shot reversal,even in the price of wool.

Timeline-before the first of may.

[Zaphod]

There will be a few weather-related bounces next spring (your fall) but the global economy is going to suffer for a couple of years. No quick fix in my opinion.

[cottonpicken]

when it comes to what is happening,the reality of the situation is the brick wall that everything else smashes against and then dies

and remeber i dont want any of this to be true

china can buy all the farmland in kansas every couple of months

the derivatives market is now said to be in the quadrillion dollar range

afew weeks ago gold clipped a new high

afew weeks ago oil clipped a new high

and what ever it takes for everybody to understand the difference between arithmetical growth and geometrical growth-get up to speed

ad naseum-watch the freaking bond market

facta non verba

[TOM4CWB]

Cottonpicken,

On grains... I really would be happy IF you were right... BUT:

The chances are 1 in 100 that you are!

1. There will have to be a massive production shortfall to redirect wheat prices...
My evidence?

"• The International Grains Council (IGC) increased its world wheat production estimate by 7.0 MMT from last month to 683.0 MMT, and 3.0 MMT higher than USDA's October estimate. Much of the increase is attributed to higher production in the EU (2.7 MMT) and Russia (4.0 MMT)."

Consumption is going down... as is trade... because of the world recession.

FOR prices to slingshot up... in the spring of 2009... Black Oil will have to go through the roof... and even if they do... we will still be at $8 CBOT with oil trading at $130/bbl.

If oil is $130/bbl... AU and CDN$'s spike through the roof... from $.80 to par or higher... which knocks 20% plus back off our grain prices!

Canada, EU, Russia, South America... even Australia will have more to export than last year... 60mmt more... wheat. Where will this go first... to allow the prices to slingshot back up?

[TOM4CWB]

Mallee;

This is a telling statement:

"The developments in the worst financial crisis in eight decades followed signs in the past week that world markets were stabilizing, with interbank rates falling and U.S. stocks posting their biggest weekly gain in 34 years"

http://fresh.bnn.ca/reuters_story.aspx?story=2008-11-02T101304Z_01_TRE49N5VU_RTROPTT_0_CBUSINESS-US-FINANCIAL6.XML

Most folks are concerned that after the US election... finances deteriorate... not get better!

US wht futures can go up... but what will cash prices do? Basis?

[cropduster]

T4......what`s your opinion/feelings on the CWB contingency fund.........are they gonna be xtra heavy with their basis this year because of last.I`m hearing they got a lot of funds to recoup for what they lost.