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Is the worst over?

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    #11
    Cropduster,

    The basis SHOULD have come off the last couple of weeks... instead the CWB took more from our PPO contracts.

    The risk management system leaves the CWB free to raid the contingency fund... to prop up the pool... just as they are propping up the pools with PPO revenues by their own admissions.

    This 'late' pricing premium... is a farce... the basis is the real issue... and the negative $21 basis on CWRS that is $40/t out of wack... just netted the CWB contingency fund a massive influx of cash... that can now be sent to the pools to pay for the hedges... because the CWB uses the pools to hedge the PPO's... over the long haul of the pool/crop year.

    Initial CWB hedges are removed... otherwise the CWB should be easily capable of paying profits on hedge positions... when they accrue to a grower. BUT the CWB won't pay... which is proof enough... the risk management position does not exist outright a few months after the hedge is done by the grower.

    The pool is the hedge... in the end... and the contingency fund is manipulated to pay the pool. Proof?

    The $6/bu positive basis paid off the PNW this spring... SHOULD have meant massive profits in the Contingency Fund... instead Chairman Ritter insisted there were massive 'problems'... in the PPO's... which means only one thing!

    Risk Management LOSSES.

    It SHOULD have been be impossible to lose money on PPO's... if a decent set of guidelines were in place governing their management!

    The first 4 years (till 2005)of PPO's are proof enough that this was not only possible... but practical and achievable!

    THESE 'Single minded' directors fumbled the ball... messed up big time... and now want to blame the markets!

    i CALL THEIR bluff! a FORENSIC AUDIT WOULD PROVE MY POINTS!

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      #12
      Cropduster,

      Remember when the CWB 'bought' off 'designated area' growers during the 2004 Directors election?

      Millions were paid... on hedges growers put in place... even though the CWB was not supposed to pay out... when folks couldn't deliver because of feed wheat.

      My memory will not forget this manipulation... bribe... and lack of integrity... till someone fixes this corrupt broken system!

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        #13
        Sorry to get your blood pressure up Tom!!Kinda knew the answer ,just thought the quonset donkey would enlighten us!!!!!!Kinda nice he`s gonna be relegated to his quonset.Just the right size of horizons!!

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          #14
          Your your giving me odds?

          The only thing i've missed in five years was the current stampede into us bonds.I underestimated the stupidity of people.

          The set up is now perfect.

          When there is a default on the gold contract,were gone.

          The events that gave us 20 buck wheat are still in play.

          How could you forget what happened only a few short months ago?

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            #15
            Your your giving me odds?

            The only thing i've missed in five years was the current stampede into us bonds.I underestimated the stupidity of people.

            The set up is now perfect.

            When there is a default on the gold contract,were gone.

            The events that gave us 20 buck wheat are still in play.

            How could you forget what happened only a few short months ago?

            Comment


              #16
              Cottonpicken,

              The summer of 2008 has produced over 70mmt of wheat MORE than 2007.

              Plus the world economy is in a tailspin... on top.

              That makes a massive difference...

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                #17
                There is one other difference that I don't think has fully played out yet. I think world currency relationships are still going to realign. The question is when - and at what ratios. My belief is the US dollar is going to have to drop at some point, perhaps very quickly and very far. That will change all commodity pricing.

                I cannot see any other way out for them. They have huge debts to repay, and are becoming less and less competitive with the rest of the world. A lower $US will eventually happen and bring them some relief from both of these problems.

                But then - I'm no expert. Just dirt farmer logic.........

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                  #18
                  Kodiak

                  Based on your thoughts, should a farmer be hedging the loonie? This is based on the thought a weaker USD dollar will eventually work back to higher US futures. The higher US prices will be offset by a stronger loonie under your philosophy. Input prices/equipment prices should come down with a stronger loonie but this doesn't seem to have occurred very quickly in the past.

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                    #19
                    The ENTIRE world is inflating.

                    The greatest head fake ever has just happened.

                    The us alone pumped 2.7 trillion this year.

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