Is the worst over?

[malleefarmer]

Taliking wheat mostly, is the worst over?

See last week on dec contract it tried to break through 500, think traded to 503 but bounced off.

Any thoughts cotton, sask charlie tom anyone.

Next question when prices eventually do spike upwards say next march april how high will the be 600 to 700 cents, i doubt we will see the lofty highs which occured in feb/arch this year.

crops in aust vary from good to no harvest all ive not started yet.

In west aust the crops are yielding better than expected and seems as though in south aust its the same but quality is poor here low bushel wieghts

thanks in advance

[TOM4CWB]

Mallee,

Is the worst over?

It took decades to get here... is it possible to be over in a month or 2?

Restructuring of the global economic system... will be the goal from what I see.

1 global currency.

The new world order.

How long will this take Mallee?

Have we had enough pain to push us into this solution?

I DOUBT IT!

[mbratrud]

Assuming your referring to Canola. $9.50 to $10.00 per bushel in a defered position is likely as good as it get in my opinion. There is a tonne of seed out there and a wilingness to sell at $10 ,so no need for it to go higher. Unless we have a complete reverse perfect storm in the coming months.... and who knows!! All that is clear right now is the S&D looks bearish and we are going into a world recession. This does not bode well for $600 plus Canola unfortunatly.
$500 is doughtful really...

[malleefarmer]

was reffering to wheat

ps none of you guys have wool of course but wool prices have crashed here in aust by around 25% in the space of four weeks to be below the cost of production.

[cottonpicken]

I see a massive sling shot reversal,even in the price of wool.

Timeline-before the first of may.

[Zaphod]

There will be a few weather-related bounces next spring (your fall) but the global economy is going to suffer for a couple of years. No quick fix in my opinion.

[cottonpicken]

when it comes to what is happening,the reality of the situation is the brick wall that everything else smashes against and then dies

and remeber i dont want any of this to be true

china can buy all the farmland in kansas every couple of months

the derivatives market is now said to be in the quadrillion dollar range

afew weeks ago gold clipped a new high

afew weeks ago oil clipped a new high

and what ever it takes for everybody to understand the difference between arithmetical growth and geometrical growth-get up to speed

ad naseum-watch the freaking bond market

facta non verba

[TOM4CWB]

Cottonpicken,

On grains... I really would be happy IF you were right... BUT:

The chances are 1 in 100 that you are!

1. There will have to be a massive production shortfall to redirect wheat prices...
My evidence?

"• The International Grains Council (IGC) increased its world wheat production estimate by 7.0 MMT from last month to 683.0 MMT, and 3.0 MMT higher than USDA's October estimate. Much of the increase is attributed to higher production in the EU (2.7 MMT) and Russia (4.0 MMT)."

Consumption is going down... as is trade... because of the world recession.

FOR prices to slingshot up... in the spring of 2009... Black Oil will have to go through the roof... and even if they do... we will still be at $8 CBOT with oil trading at $130/bbl.

If oil is $130/bbl... AU and CDN$'s spike through the roof... from $.80 to par or higher... which knocks 20% plus back off our grain prices!

Canada, EU, Russia, South America... even Australia will have more to export than last year... 60mmt more... wheat. Where will this go first... to allow the prices to slingshot back up?

[TOM4CWB]

Mallee;

This is a telling statement:

"The developments in the worst financial crisis in eight decades followed signs in the past week that world markets were stabilizing, with interbank rates falling and U.S. stocks posting their biggest weekly gain in 34 years"

http://fresh.bnn.ca/reuters_story.aspx?story=2008-11-02T101304Z_01_TRE49N5VU_RTROPTT_0_CBUSINESS-US-FINANCIAL6.XML

Most folks are concerned that after the US election... finances deteriorate... not get better!

US wht futures can go up... but what will cash prices do? Basis?

[cropduster]

T4......what`s your opinion/feelings on the CWB contingency fund.........are they gonna be xtra heavy with their basis this year because of last.I`m hearing they got a lot of funds to recoup for what they lost.

[TOM4CWB]

Cropduster,

The basis SHOULD have come off the last couple of weeks... instead the CWB took more from our PPO contracts.

The risk management system leaves the CWB free to raid the contingency fund... to prop up the pool... just as they are propping up the pools with PPO revenues by their own admissions.

This 'late' pricing premium... is a farce... the basis is the real issue... and the negative $21 basis on CWRS that is $40/t out of wack... just netted the CWB contingency fund a massive influx of cash... that can now be sent to the pools to pay for the hedges... because the CWB uses the pools to hedge the PPO's... over the long haul of the pool/crop year.

Initial CWB hedges are removed... otherwise the CWB should be easily capable of paying profits on hedge positions... when they accrue to a grower. BUT the CWB won't pay... which is proof enough... the risk management position does not exist outright a few months after the hedge is done by the grower.

The pool is the hedge... in the end... and the contingency fund is manipulated to pay the pool. Proof?

The $6/bu positive basis paid off the PNW this spring... SHOULD have meant massive profits in the Contingency Fund... instead Chairman Ritter insisted there were massive 'problems'... in the PPO's... which means only one thing!

Risk Management LOSSES.

It SHOULD have been be impossible to lose money on PPO's... if a decent set of guidelines were in place governing their management!

The first 4 years (till 2005)of PPO's are proof enough that this was not only possible... but practical and achievable!

THESE 'Single minded' directors fumbled the ball... messed up big time... and now want to blame the markets!

i CALL THEIR bluff! a FORENSIC AUDIT WOULD PROVE MY POINTS!

[TOM4CWB]

Cropduster,

Remember when the CWB 'bought' off 'designated area' growers during the 2004 Directors election?

Millions were paid... on hedges growers put in place... even though the CWB was not supposed to pay out... when folks couldn't deliver because of feed wheat.

My memory will not forget this manipulation... bribe... and lack of integrity... till someone fixes this corrupt broken system!

[cropduster]

Sorry to get your blood pressure up Tom!!Kinda knew the answer ,just thought the quonset donkey would enlighten us!!!!!!Kinda nice he`s gonna be relegated to his quonset.Just the right size of horizons!!

[cottonpicken]

Your your giving me odds?

The only thing i've missed in five years was the current stampede into us bonds.I underestimated the stupidity of people.

The set up is now perfect.

When there is a default on the gold contract,were gone.

The events that gave us 20 buck wheat are still in play.

How could you forget what happened only a few short months ago?

[cottonpicken]

Your your giving me odds?

The only thing i've missed in five years was the current stampede into us bonds.I underestimated the stupidity of people.

The set up is now perfect.

When there is a default on the gold contract,were gone.

The events that gave us 20 buck wheat are still in play.

How could you forget what happened only a few short months ago?