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What is Perspective on Wheat Marketing?

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    What is Perspective on Wheat Marketing?

    Charlie,

    I thought this would be a good discussion point on marketing plans... how they should be implemented... and others 'marketing' perspectives our farms need to consider!

    How do we 'sell' ourselves & our services as growers...

    Are we 'realists' understanding wheat is 87% politics and 13%px...

    Does anyone actually believe his will ever change?

    What is a 'fair' return for our family farm... what are we entitled to... ?

    Here is a US Perspective:

    "Word on Wheat: Falling Prices and Rising Anxiety on Farms
    October 31, 2008


    Paul Penner
    NAWG Environment and Renewable Resources Chairman

    Say good bye to $8 wheat. No, $7 wheat. Change that to $6 wheat. Um, $5 looks to be going fast. Should I have priced more earlier?

    Welcome inside the head of a wheat grower from Kansas.

    A little over three months ago, most farmers had no clue prices would fall this far so fast. A number of neighbors have, in fact, confided to me that they were doing what many producers do - following a disciplined marketing plan, pre-pricing and selling a percentage each month, though this year may turn out to be the year to get rid of the whole inventory before the end of harvest.

    But while very few among us imagined the price of wheat would decline like it has – just like few evidently anticipated the problems our country’s larger economy would be facing – we as farmers knew the days of record high prices were, indeed, numbered. History and logic tell you that what goes up must come down, and the cure for high prices has always been high prices.

    Watching my market updates these days makes me prouder than ever of NAWG for defending the direct payment and the crop insurance program and supporting permanent disaster elements in the 2008 Farm Bill, even while critics claimed these were unnecessary and the safety-net was a give-away.

    When Congress comes back next year, Members are going to face a whole host of issues due to our current financial ‘crisis’. Many of these will cost a lot of money to fix, and where do you think they are going to try to find that money? In part, farm programs.

    This is a new day, with tons of uncertainty coming at us like a freight train. Fertilizer and other input costs have got to come down, fast, or red ink will flow like water in the streets. We all have a lot of questions to address, both on our individual farms and in our state and national farm organizations.

    Whether we like it or not, we’ve been thrown into these circumstances and have to make the best of it. As producers, that probably means taking a good, hard look at market conditions and having honest conversations with our bankers. As an association, that means continuing to fight for policies that help farmers survive the bad times when they come, even if that proves unpopular.

    Now this farmer’s going out to the shop to get the combine ready to cut some milo. That’s still the best therapy for a farmer, even with low prices.

    - Penner is a wheat producer in Hillsboro, Kan."

    http://www.wheatworld.org/html/news.cfm?ID=1494

    #2
    Man,i just deleted the biggest rant ever.

    I would have been banned forever.

    Comment


      #3
      Cottonpicken, most of the posts I start wind up censored by myself. More and more are being deleted as nothing more than a CWB rant before I hit post. I need a breathalizer on my laptop.
      Can you summarize your thoughts on the wheat market? I enjoy most of your posts (dont understand some though).

      Thanks and as always

      Screw the C-- oh never mind

      Comment


        #4
        Highly subsidized american and european farmers have always gotten under my skin.

        I dont know how much they lower the price of grains but i'd bet its Substantial.

        Comment


          #5
          There is a reason land prices in the U.S. are where they are. Heavy subsidization, by either Dems or Reps. They pull us down with there subsidized prices, no matter how efficient we are you can't fight subsidies at their levels. This also put's the boots to us selling all our grain into the U.S., it won't happen. If the monetary collapse occurs in the U.S. , we will even be deeper in doo- doo.

          Comment


            #6
            agstar77,

            I am somewhat confused... what 'export subsidies' are there on US Wheat?

            The CWB has the ability to subsidise any sale... any day... on all our board grains... and the only ability to tell there has been a CWB 'export subsidy'... is when we are selling below US export prices... and CWB buybacks are expensive to the point where it is impossible to make a sale to the south across the 49th.

            Why the attack so vicious against US wheat growers... when CDN'single deskers' are way worse... at promoting the export subsidy game through the CWB pool account sales?

            Comment


              #7
              agstar,

              1. You acknowledge that the USA is our best buying volume customer.If they weren't, even the CWB wouldn't be selling to them, right?

              2. Thn you trash our best buying customer.

              Maybe you should rethink your logic. Parsley

              Comment


                #8
                What logic?

                Comment


                  #9
                  agstar's logic is sublimated. His is a blind-spot. Maybe it's been inherited. Maybe his spouse works at the Board. He needs a repair patch, though. Not a blink repair, either. Parsley

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Only somewhat confused? There was no mention of export subsidies. The American government spending on Ag subsidies is well documented. The U.S. is a premium market because of it's proximity and comparitive value.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Agstar77,

                      ARE YOU SERIOUS?

                      The US is a premium market... because they are a dependable... trustworthy... supplier. They have a trasparent pricing system... and buyers support them before Canada because of this.

                      Japan buys more high quality wheat from the US than the CWB... because they get better value... and Japan pays the US more for that quality... (Even though the CWB claims the opposite)

                      When I ship to the US... I displace domestic wheat into the domestic market... which is instantly replaced in the export market by that displaced domestic US Wheat... hence the reason the US charges me the normal export basis when it buys my Canadian wheat.

                      Agstar77... the end of the CWB's DPC... clearly proves the failure of the CWB to compete in full value export markets around the globe... even though the US grain export system is more costly than the western Canadian system.

                      Further the basis off the west coast of North America (PNW) has clearly become much better (over $2/buUS in the past 2 months) and the CWB instead has widened the basis instead of narrowing it by the $.60/buUS. freight rates have become the cheapest in many decades... which is part of the reason the US has a better basis off the PNW... and the CWB inhaled that premium as well.

                      I sold Commodity Canola to Cargill last week at a $16/t basis under the Nov08 contract for delivery that day.

                      Don't tell me the CWB is being fair... let alone extracting a premium for my farm. The CWB is extracting a huge premium FROM my farm... right now on my prepriced wheat over $1/bu.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        This guy sounds super intelligent.

                        Tom this is why your so depressed, you have to quit listening to this crap.

                        $8.00 MGEX wheat before Mar/09.

                        I used to watch CNBC for info, now just watch for the humour. If the markets are down during the session, the sky is falling. If they are up, the charts look promising.

                        $11.00/beans Mar/09
                        $0.90/ Canadian buck Jan/09

                        Comment

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