Viterra To Prosper

[TOM4CWB]

Choice2U,

BNN haqd a report on Agrium today... between $46 and $50... and back to $46/share... high volitility... high risk stock... IF the bottom is not in black oil.

Black oil call options... CDN$ Call Options... any one of these have a direct relationship with grains... hence fertiliser... even natural gas will give a fair cross hedge... or even a basket of all the above.

Going 'Long' in this volitile a market means an easy 25% can be gained or lost in a couple of days... not at all for those who are not gamblers!

[craig]

Burbert
I'm sure Viterra staff would hate, resent having to do business with you. For that matter I'm sure just about every farm business you have to deal with probably shares that same view point.You seem to thing we should all work together through the CWB but it would seem you can't even make an attempt to build any business relations. Never happy unless life and wealth are delivered on a silver platter.

[Burbert]

Maybe hate was the wrong word to use, describing Viterra. Loathe or despise would probably be better words to describe their ongoing relationship with the stupid farmers, that they have to deal with on a daily basis. Apologies to all those thin skinned, forward thinking, freebooters out there, who love paying high prices and being taken advantage of, yous are the guys that Viterra wants to deal with each and every time! But wait, the BEST OF TIMES is coming down the pipe, higher interest rates are looming, lots of the same happy go lucky farmers involved in Angribusiness in our great nation will fall by the wayside sooner than later! Bet the fiends at Viterra will come to your rescue then. LOL's

[chuckChuck]

Several of your posts complain about the lack of competition and price fixing on the input side in the open market and then go on to blame all the problems in agriculture on the CWB. What a laugh! That is what happens when you lose perspective because of strongly held ideology. Perhaps some of you have missed the increasing move towards bigger and bigger players in ag markets with less and less competition. Why do you think ranchers in the US tried to sue packers for uncompetitive behaviour. Why did Obama campaign on a the notion of stopping packer ownership of cattle? Why are there only a handfull of packers left in the Canadian market? Where is the real competition you speak of? If you would take a moment to stop praying at the altar of the free and unregulated market you might notice that there are many problems in the open market that need fixing. Having the delusion that free markets are going to act in your interest as a small and tiny player is at best wishful thinking. If free markets are so wonderful why does Harper support import tarrifs, cost of production formulas, and supply mangement for dairy and poultry producers? These are socialist intervention. Why dosen't he just let the freemarket prevail? Most farmers voted for Harper so that includes many of you who are so adamant about free and unregulated markets.

[LWeber]

Change or be changed.

Like conventional to organic.

How many farmers voted for you in the Federal election Mr. Flaman?

How many will vote for you in the CWB election?

If you would take a moment to stop praying at the altar of the (monopoly) market you might notice that there are many problems (at) the (CWB) that need fixing. Having the delusion that the (CWB) is going to act in your interest as a (large and international player) is at best wishful thinking.

[TOM4CWB]

LWeber,

The CWB has lost more of our money in the past two years...

AND
The especially the retiring CWBdirectors know it. Who got it? Multinationals... other wealthy nations

Western Canadian farmers can't afford it. Argentina, Ukraine, Brazil... FSU nations... all know they can produce grain for half of what western Canada can.

If we don't market 'smart'... our families will have no future in grain production for the global market place.

[TOM4CWB]

Chuckchuck,

In case you missed it... Supply Management and CWB policy were put in place by the members of the Conservative Party of Canada... and PM Harper is RESPONSIBLE to implement these policies.

Democracy at work... Your side lost your CWB phony monopoly... you needed to get Flaman in as a Liberal to win... if you were to have ANY credible argument!

[parsley]

Change or be changed. I missed that quote of Obama's. Pars

[LWeber]

If it was Obama it would be:

(Without teleprompter)

Change uh or uh be uh uh changed

Affirmative action speaking: Equal uhs for equal words.

[chuckChuck]

Mr. Weber, Tom and others,
With a little research on the internet it is possible to compare 2007/08 grain prices net to farmers. Lets take a look at durum. The USDA numbers show the weighted average durum price farmers received from June to May 2007/08 was $9.75/bu.USD net to farmers.
The # 2 CWAD 11.5 % protein PRO as of October based on 2007/08 August 1 - July 31 crop year was $12.38/bu. CAD (average net to SK. farmers). In order to fairly compare prices you would have to adjust for the 2 month diference in the timing of sales, currency, slight grade differences and the market advantage that US farmers have in higher domestic usage (say 50%)which translates into higher net returns because of proximity to US mills in contrast to our more distant markets which net us less.

That said, it is almost a certainity that the CWB has outperformed the US open marketing system by a significant margin on behalf of Canadian farmers. Any comparison of spot market prices during this time period to a CWB pooled price is not a fair comparison. It was widely reported that many (more than 1/2 of US farmers) sold at $7.00 or less. Of course there were a few who sold at higher prices with the peak of average monthly prices coming in the month of March at $15.40 USD. The total benefit of all Canadian durum farmers receiving $12.00 per bushel or better far outperforms the US system that delivered relatively dismal prices to many. Not to mention that there is every reason to believe that carefull marketing by the CWB in the durum market increased prices overall because they controled the biggest majority of exportable supplies. Therefore I find it difficult to believe that CWB is doing such a bad job.

[chuckChuck]

Tom,
I am curious Tom how it is ok for the Conservatives to support socialism for dairy and poultry farmers and free market capitalism for grain farmers? Are there two classes of farmers in this country? One that is protected by trade barriers and one that is not? Either you are for free markets or you are not. Which is it? Beacuse all the BS arguments about freedom and property ownership that many Cons. espouse don't ring true or fair since they also support supply mangement apparently.

"n case you missed it... Supply Management and CWB policy were put in place by the members of the Conservative Party of Canada... and PM Harper is RESPONSIBLE to implement these policies. Democracy at work... Your side lost your CWB phony monopoly... you needed to get Flaman in as a Liberal to win... if you were to have ANY credible argument!"

[Hopperbin]

Chuckchuck you should adjust for the lower than going rate prices that we were forced to take on the fixed price contracts? How about we open the books for all to see? Before you brag about a 12.38 return lets take a look at the return to all producers including the Fixed price contracts because they are producers also.

[LWeber]

QUOTE:

With a little research on the internet it is possible to compare 2007/08 grain prices net to farmers.

UNQUOTE

If that is the methodology you would like to choose, you cannot cherry pick one year. One year could be an anomally. Go back and do the excercise again the past five years - and then tell this forum your findings.

And while you are at it - do it for CWRS. And then tell us how you "find it difficult to believe that CWB is doing such a bad job."

Does that fall into the fiduciary responsibility category?

[TOM4CWB]

Chuckchuck,

You are bang on right about there being two kinds of farmers in Canada... those inside the 'designated area'... and those outside.

If you live inside the 'designated area'... your wheat price is $3/bu lower... than if you live in the interior of B.C.... Creston Valley gets to export to the US... or anywhere on the globe for that matter... without restriction... and keep the 'US Premium' without prejudice.


AGAIN I ask...How about 'designated area' grain growers being allowed the freedom to choose who they sell their grain to... like the rest of Canada outside the 'designated area" has the right to do?

OR would that cost 'designated area'SM5 too much for their feed grains... because they would have to compete with the rest of the world for our grain... How about a level playing field for feed costs?

At least SM5 has a franchise fee(quota).. and a benefit for the quota purchased... (profitable prices) what is so unbusinesslike about this...

CHuckchuck?
SINCE Conservative members voted in favour of this... what was so bad about that decision?

[chuckChuck]

Mr. Weber,
One year does not tell the whole story, I admit that. But 07/08 was a dramatic example of how the single desk can outperform the open market for most farmers (not all). Indeed what is needed is multi year analysis and comparison. However when that happens and the results favour the single desk often the authors are deemed to be biased, selective, and the recipients of a smeer campaign.

You obviously know about many of the multi-year studies. The KFT study showed an average benefit from the CWB for spring wheat over many years of around $13 per tonne with some years much higher. Informa recently did a study that showed the opposite. Read the CWB response on Informa and make your conclusion.

When you look at a business plan, whose numbers do you believe? Are you inclined to believe anecdotal evidence presented with a political bias or would you put more weight on independent academic studies using correct methodolgy? The reality is most farmers don't have all the information or expertise to make an informed choice. How would it be possible for farmers to know what is happening in 70 different markets for wheat? How is it possible for farmers to know what impact the large domestic usage has on US prices relative our lower domestic usage?

When I look at the arguments some farmers still can't understand why you can't fairly compare the difference between a spot price and a pooled price.

In conclusion there are numerous credible studies showing a benefit from the single desk. There are other studies primarily coming out of Alberta that show the opposite. I am willing to bet that if you asked 10 economists to riview the literature on this issue that the majority would find the single desk provides a significant benefit.