Factors to Follow/Strategies

[charliep]

Didn't get a chance to post Monday so will do so now.

Today's big negatives in the crop markets got me a little excited but when I get this attitude/fear factor, I have to look at the charts to put into perspective. When I do this, I note the relative stability of the market within a trading range since the beginning of October. Didn't answer Malleefarmer in one of his recent posts (too scared of being wrong) but very interesting times.

I also note the wide variation in canola basis levels between companies. What is everyone seeing in basis levels they are being offered? what is the carry in canola deferred delivery contracts (how much is the market paying to store?

[cottonpicken]

Canadian dollar is sending positive signals,10 points in 8 days.

Still believe liquidity will poor into commodities,watching american bond market with both eyes.

[Hopperbin]

Barack intends to tax corporations higher, I expect that to cause the markets to take another plunge. He was also the one who got the COOL passed, I would expect more protectionism.

[mcfarms]

Charlie

O here today for spot with immediate delivery so the message was when I go in tonight, somebody's short on a boat I should think.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

It is simply amazing that the basis has narrowed this much in the past 2 weeks.

Selling October canola off the jan futures... with the spreads as they are/were... really confuses the basis calculation on Canola. Oct canola delivery for cash would have normally been off the Nov futures.

The amount of grain that was harvested in Alberta is HUGE. We are very blessed... no matter how anyone looks at it.

The folks with 20bu Canola had much priced most often at good prices... still could make money at $15/bu.

Folks with 40bu/ac had much less priced... but can afford to sell for less!

There is a massive amount of Canola to be sold between now and Feb 1... when the Aussies finish buying back their short crop... if black oil drops... WOW.

[Hopperbin]

Tom I notice Bunge Dixon is paying as much for Nov. delivery as Feb. Delivery. But basis still has room for improvement. Sure is a welcome sight with the amount of Canola in bins.
I am sure this must be related to marketing some how that Barrack is to expand the number of troops in Afganistan. Amazing how he has gotten the whole world rallied around him. I predict over the course of one year he will let most everyone down. Just my negative attitude. The american government including Barrack must realize they are not the super power any more.

[Burbert]

Maybe we should, stay the course, the fundamentals of the US economy are strong. Lets all go moose huntin and tap the natural resources around us. Plan a vacation in Alaska this year, but be afraid, very afraid, the boogey man is out there waitin to getcha.

[charliep]

So I guess farmers are victims with little to nothing in their contol and just behave like a deer caught in the headlights of car in middle of the road?

From the discussion here, farm managers are recognizing the challenges (and opportunities) ahead and are seeking ways to remain viable in the tough times and profitable in the better times. Anyone who doesn't believe that should be doing something else. A caution in the years ahead will be land values. Land has been a good investment but tougher times (if you are negative on the future) will mean lower land values.