Gulf fert

[furrowtickler]

Check out the most recent fert futures prices on farmfutures.com

Quote "After watching fertilizer prices fall sharply on international markets, manufacturers around the world are cutting back production in response to sharply lower demand. Reductions are being reported in Russia, Italy, North Afica and the U.S. so far, with more likely.
The latest moves come as producers wrapping up harvest in the Midwest are trying to decide wether to book expensive inputs for corn, or wait and bypass early discounts. While fertilizer prices have fallen sharply elsewhere, farm level prices remain near historic highs.
That spread could begin to crack, however. One major supplier in the eastern corn belt,The Andersons, said in revised guidance to analysts that it was forced to write down certain inventories due to weaker prices.
DAP offers at the Gulf slid to $700 this week, $25 a ton lower than last week, though the market could be trying to find a bottom because deferred contracts show only modest discounts. Average prices quoted to farmers in Illinois were down $65 a ton, but still average $1170, according to USDA's market news service.
Meanwhile, urea is trying to stabilize around $300 to $320 a ton at the gulf, though Nov/Dec bids out of the Black Sea suggest even lower prices are possible." end quote
I think someone will have to crack here in western Canada before April. The whole thing is, the b/s that north American farmers have been told about low fert supplies and never ending demand probably never exsited for this reversal in prices to happen so quickly.
Someone will give in, and it will not be me. I do not need fert for at least 6 months.
Also, the baltic dry index(ocean freight rates) has dropped 95% from their highs.

[bucket]

A cut back in production does not mean low demand. It means there warehouses are full and there is nowhere to put the stuff. No industry cuts back production. Its too expensive to slow down. They have nat gas booked and they get penalized if they don't use it. They have to lower fertilzer prices.

[agstar77]

It would be interesting to know how much fertilizer was pre bought at higher prices. This is the reason given by retailers for not dropping prices.

[Hopperbin]

Agstar I still have a problem with our suppliers pre buying our fert. without money down from farmers. For one most do not have enough profit margin to purchase that fert. at record high double the going rate compared to last year. Someone still needs to prove to me that our spring fert needs are purchased.

[lesm]

There is no way we are going to buy any inputs this next crop year if the the markets doesn't change between now and spring. We have all our roundup in place, lock our bins and idle our 6000 acres if need be.

[lesm]

There is no way we are going to purchase any of our inputs for the next crop year unless the the markets change between now and next spring. We have all our roundup in place, lock our bins and idle our 6000 acres for a year.

[lesm]

Sorry for the duplication.

[furrowtickler]

Walk into your local dealer and see how much is on hand. The major supplier warehouse may be full but not so much your local dealers. I do not think the locals have much prepaid fert sitting around. Just because a few farmers pre bought fert, it does not mean the locals are full of high priced fert. Like your canola seed the product will arive from feb-april as per usual but they will gladly take your money now. One thing is though you can save up to 20% on seed, where fert might cost you an extra 30-40% this year if you buy now. Spring fert prices have been lower before and it can/will happen again.

[GreenValley]

Couple weeks ago someone at Viterra has phoned here and asked if interest to booked canola seed for 2009, told them not interested cause I dont have any canola acre for 2009.
Learn that in here Alberta huttries have offer farmer for 400 dollars per tonnes fertilizer and that fertilizer import was from China. Don't know specific what blend it would be. I just learn today at Red Deer farm trade show. We are screwed again.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea stopped in last night at our two independents and their looking for sulfur, none in shed suppliers aren't selling. Hm their is a bunch in Vancouver sitting with no home. It seems only a few dealers are sitting on huge amounts of product. Most don't have the cash unless you pay them for it to purchase huge amounts at these prices. So its the suppliers that are having their sheds and trains and ships full. Hm they might have had huge profits on their last quarterly reports to keep their share values up. but if sales dry up and sheds are full of product the next quarter for them will look very interesting to share holders who want huge profits. Look for more BS to come in the next few weeks, plant shut downs labour disputes, etc etc. These are the same genius who created a fake shortage boom in use etc. now they believed their own BS and are sitting with huge amounts of unsold product. Next thing out of their mouths will be Shortage in spring due to plant maintenance etc. Watch that BS will come our around time of their next share holders report.

[GreenValley]

What goes up it goes down, that thumb rule.
Hopefully the price of fertilizer may go break low new record as what goes up will come down that rule. Last time I heard was 950 per tonne so may somewhere 200 to 300 I hopefully, will see. These farmer did not buy hutteries offer fertilizer but take to dealer fertilizer and poke them or tell them to match the price the hutteries offer 400 per tonne. I am waiting to hear what their respond. We need cut their throat down to new break record if possible.