Why do the Australians seem compelled to over estimate their crop. It would seem that for the last 3 or 4 years we hear about normal to above normal production estimates early and they don't come down till harvest is almost happening. Severe drought requires above average rainfall to replenish the ground. It would suggest to me that traders should more seriously question the projections.
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Australians over estimate crop.
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Aust crop will be 20 mill tonne which has basically been the thoughts since mid sept.
The talk of downgrading estimate again are a furphy most crops are yielding slightly better than first thought.
End of august most areas were ok aust wide but no rain fell for eight weeks over vic and sa but the west had some.
everyone presumed just a few showers was all that was needed to make the crop and that was quite true but it just never occured.
As we all know crop forecasting is a inexact science
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