Market turmoil!

[SASKFARMER3]

November is here and it seems the news gets worse every day. Today Can-West Global Debt is starting to get out of control. Nortel is going to go Bankrupt, GMC, Ford and Chrysler are Toast. USA trip spells out one thing. Areas where Obama won big time are in big financial chaos. Areas that McCain won are doing OK. US farmers are worried about one thing this winter. Will land values of up to $3300 and acre or better hold up. Banks are using this a leverage to supply operating etc. If they feel their is no value in land watch the Rural side of America to crash next. JD dealer in US informed me don't worry about buying new JD equipment, countries all over the world have canceled orders or stopped purchasing product. Its just the US and Canadian farmers that don't get whats happening all over the globe. By next year at this time you will be able to get any piece of equipment you want at your price. Fertilizer is .50 cents a lb for anhydrous and US farmers are looking for it to go lower. Very little applied but they will broadcast nitrogen if it drops this winter.
So maybe the worst isn't here yet. Maybe we should all cancel our Canola seed next because its to high for current market conditions. Also Chem meetings are coming up maybe they need to here that next year its 2-4D on Cereals and 1/2 roundup for burn off, no disease control, no seed treatment, and half use on fert or none at all.
ON seed side all company reps are saying seed sales are 30% less depending on varieties. Remember also grain companies don't expand like some did with out mountains of Debt or shareholders who are loosing money big time in other ventures, How strong is the grain company you deal with or is all their hype just smoke and mirrors.
Fert maybe we have set are low side of the market two high, If demand was BS and most farmers used same as last year before all over the US and Canada. With a drop in Use next year and global melt down, is Fertilizer the next Nortel. I believe farmers control that call.

[SASKFARMER3]

Product 6 November 30 October Tendency
Prilled Urea Yuzhny 240-250 275-285 Pressured
Granular Urea Mid East 244-246 345-350 Bottoming out
Granular Urea USG s.ton 300-305 306-320 Weak
DAP Tampa 780-830 825-850 Slipping
Ammonia fob Yuzhny 240-285 350-370 Dropping
Ammonia cfr Tampa 400-425 575 Falling
Sulphur fob Vancouver 45-60 60-150 Weaker
Also attended a Monsanto meeting in US for Canola the next cinderella crop. Monsanto expected a full house about 30 attended. These guys were exited since most grew canola in 08 but with fert prices high for canola vs soybean I don't think their will be a lot of extra acres in US next year. But it looks like Monsanto sees something here to make huge money and are pushing it to go further south.

[SASKFARMER3]

One more fact Circuit city is in Bankruptcy protection I think they own Best buy and Future shop. Gift cards maybe a no no from these companies this year.

[charliep]

Circuit City and Best Buy/Future Shop are separate companies but have similar
problems.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hWb7jZm0GdS1wZGyRLt_b3ZJDtHQD94DJN500

[SASKFARMER3]

Thanks Charlie wasnt sure! But yea they will be having same problem as Us consumer will not be buying Big screens and Cameras this Xmas and Thanks Giving.

[cottonpicken]

It is my opinion that we are either inflating or deflating.

It is hard to tell because us money supply numbers stopped being reported a year or two ago.

A deflationary nightmare scenario is a possibility but god help us all if it happens.

How does debt ever get paid off with expensive dollars?

[agstar77]

The coil spring of deflation has been wound, eventually it will uncoil with absoulute devestation. But when?

[cottonpicken]

some morning coffe reading

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/guestcommentary?art_id=10148

[jensend]

i think it's a given that we're deflating now and for a while. inflation is possible if the govt's screw up and print too much liquidity. the inflation, if it happens, will be more destructive than the deflation because it will prolong and deepen the depression. robert prechter's book, 'conquering the crash', does a good job of explaining how and why.

[jensend]

We aren't going to keep going down forever, we wil find a bottom, and maybe we have found it in grains.

We will bounce here somewhere, and it will be significant, question is how many are going to capitilize on a rally??? Because we are headed lower in to 09, no bear market ends on just a single leg down.

I'm not liking equities, they looked doomed right now, with most making new lows this week. If money continues to flow out of the equity markets where is that money going to end up?? I'm hoping Gold without a doubt, the US dollar?? Possibly grains??

What are others thoughts???

Could a sleeper be the USDA final report year end, and we start trading some bullish fundamentals again.

[cottonpicken]

Deflation:

1-lots of people go broke.

2-lots of businesses that rely on people spending money go broke.

3-governments go broke from relying on business and peoples tax revenues.

4-governments tax people with anything worth taxing making those people broke.

5-more business's go broke who rely on wealthy people.

A fiscious downward spiral.

Even though inflation is fundamentally wrong,i believe it the best option.

And market descions would be a whole lot easier if the info that is spit at us was accurate.

[cris]

just wondering? We talk about all the money being injected into the economy as being inflationary which under normal conditions it should be. The thing that should be considered is that in the past year a lot of money has evaporated.

My example is the guys house that was 500K, that is now 250K. That money evaporated when he got booted out of his house. The money he paid was causing the inflation, as the profits the previous owner made, were being invested someplace else.

Did the money evaporate? yes, but someone was on the hook for it. So if the fed and the investors pick up the difference, is it really adding more money to the money supply? or is it trying to maintain the status quo?

[jensend]

i agree with you cris. if you look at the wealth that has disappeared off balance sheets and net worth statements they could print a fair bit of money just to get back to last june. i think the estimate is 1 trillion per thousand points on the dow and that doesn't take into account the losses on houses and other real estate or any other assets. the danger is if they go overboard at the mint. i wonder if to take best advantage of any inflation in grain or other commodity prices a person won't have to be directly investing in futures contracts because if there is a sharp spike in prices it may not make it back to the producer to the full extent. we saw that this past while.

[parsley]

Everyone has $40.00 to invest. Pars
<a href=”http://www.parsleysnotebook.blogspot.com/”target=”blank”> Click Here to Visit Parsley’s Notebook Blog to Read More. </a>

[parsley]

Everyone has $40.00 to invest. Pars<a href=”http://www.parsleysnotebook.blogspot.com/”target=”blank”> Click Here to Visit Parsley’s Notebook Blog to Read More. </a>