Cotton, I'm you tonight!!!

[kato]

As I write this after my 4th rye, I'm really trying to keep my eye on the prize of todays markets.

With all grains making new lows in the past days,and Crude. We are rewriting history. That being said somewhere this thing is going to spring back faster and harder than ever before.

I need another drink.

[bgmb]

What do ppl think of deere?

low P:E dividend payer and when the USD collapses it will be a real sweeet play

[cottonpicken]

Deere,pot and crescent point would be the top machinery,fertilizer,oil hedges for a farming type thing.(this is what i was going to e-mail you bg).
I dont own any of them.

In 45 days this drunk wont have a care in the world,every is going as planned,minus this ridicoulus jump into bonds.

[cottonpicken]

pot-14%
deere-15%
crescent point-10%

good day

One of many bottom signals to come?

[poorboy]

Cotton,

With what is happening in gold, are we to believe that a massive drop in the value of the US dollar is about to occur, and people will rush to commodities and minerals for a safe place to put their money?

Not sure if this will increase the price of commodities, or if it will just mean that a bushel of canola will buy more real estate or electronics than it would have before?

Interesting times we are in, and I am interested in everyones take on what is going to happen to ag commodities in the next year or two. Not sure if it is the time to be pricing new crop grains?

Thanks for any outlook that you can share.

[cottonpicken]

Basically thats right.
There is massive numbers of dollars being printed and that will have to continue for a number of reasons.Inflation hedge investments should do well.

The timing will be the hard part,it takes may take months and months for this to work out.

But......in todays crazy,crazy world i could be wrong.

[poorboy]

Sure makes it hard to know what to do from a grain marketing standpoint.

In a typical recession, prices will fall for a couple of years, and the sooner in the year you sell you product, the better the price usually is. My original thought was that it was probably a great time to start locking in canola, bly and wht throught the cwb 2010 pricing. My gut feel is that even though these are not great prices compared to the summer, they are still good prices historically.

This gold and extra money printed thing, has me baffled as to how to market my grain. My predictions may be out to lunch.

[cottonpicken]

There is a great amount of evidence and an organization(gata) that say that the gold price has been manipulated downward for a great number of years.

This is all coming to a head this month or next.

And in no part of my mind is there any doubt that higher gold price means higher grain price,although many will disagree,even analysts i respect.

[vagabonddreamer]

Mr Picken...I usually hang around the cattle side of Agri-ville...and my ranch is in BC....but the entertainment value during the last few days (federal political and cwb elections)... here in the commodity side has been TOO great to pass up....when you say that there will be a direct relationship between the price of gold and grain...do you feel it will be the same for all Ag-commodities including the meat side??

[cottonpicken]

Yes,anything that involves blood,sweat and tears.

[poorboy]

Cotton,

Thank you for your insight. It is nice to listen (read) all the different opinions and reasoning for them and then assemble my own opinion.

I find that most of the market analysts that I read are too often wrapped up in the day to day market fluctuations and fail to provide the bigger picture that is happening 6-12 months out.