It isn't over yet? Risk Management?

[TOM4CWB]

Cottonpicken, Charlie;

This from Gluke on his weekly column;

"Horror stories abound with the financial world suggesting only 20 to 30 percent of producers sold the 2008 crop with little for 2009 while suppliers hold expensive fertilizer, seed and chemicals. There is a train wreck coming!

Often, we come to believe that the worst news comes at the bottom. Yet, each day we hear of new problems, with those in agriculture just now surfacing. Fertilizer suppliers, ag commission houses, traders and ethanol advisories may be next."

I hear of grain dealers backing out of contracts...

We need some liquidity... the risk management tools for our Canadian crops has fallen apart over the past 5-10 years...

We had:

Feed Peas;
Rye;
Flax;
Feed wheat;

It is simply not acceptable to leave this much risk... with our grain industry... with no backstops.

Globalisation has not been good to us... in western Canadian Agriculture!

Much work needs to be done to rebuild our risk management systems!

Looks like we break $350 on Canola before year end?

[stubblejumper]

the CWB works for me

[stormnorm]

agristability,good or useless,for now here its useless

[charliep]

stubblejumper

I see you making the comment that the CWB works for you. My question is how?
If it does work, why couldn't the CWB package this benefit and use it to compete
in an open market.

I make the comment because it would be easy for any company to manage risk
when they only pay out 60 % of a forecast final payment and leave all price risk in
farmers hands (no guarantees). If a farmer wanted payment on delivery, the
deduction for risk is 10 to 20 %.

Yes the CWB likely does a better job of managing transaction risk (at least in
terms of the risk of not getting paid). Having said that, the main way is to deal
with accredited exporters (at a cost) and deal only at the bulk commodity level.
If the CWB deals with identity preserved crops and in smaller quantities (i.e.
container business), they will deal with more buyer payment (which again they do
not take on but rather hide in the pools/farmers absorb or hand over to
taxpayers).

On transaction risk around grade disputes between farmers and grain
companies/processors, the CWB takes on absolutely no role. In my experience,
the hand all this disputes over to the CGC.

Does the CWB do something I have left out. Other that allowing farmers (not the
CWB itself) to pool their risk and obtain an average price, what does the CWB do
to manage risk? Can you put some clarity around page 43 of the 2006/07
annual report?

[cottonpicken]

Wish i wouldnt have seen that faber article.

[furrowtickler]

Cotton, did you burn that bank down? lol

[charliep]

One thing I will highlight is the cost to farmers of
risk products.

Many grain companies are offering minimum price
contracts for a premium of about $30/tonne. That
is, you get offered today's cash price of
$335/tonne (yes is bad) with a one time
opportunity to pick higher price should the market
rally within a set period of time. I AM NOT
RECOMMENDING BY THE WAY.

The minimum price contract can be compared to
the CWB early price options (EPO). Your choices
here are accept the initial payment or use an EPO.
A 100 % EPO cost is $58.75 on Friday. You get to
enjoy price improvements above the current PRO.
The upside of the EPO is a longer period to take
advantage of a market rally. The downside is likely
50 % of wheat deliveries has likely already already
been sold/deposited in pool accounts.

The highlight is the cost of managing price risk is
much cheaper in an open and puts more money in
farmers pockets.

I won't open another thread but note that today is
big day - CWB director elections. The board of
directors first job should be to provide
guidance/direction to the operations side in terms
of lower cost farmer price risk management
products.

[charliep]

The minimum price contract is for canola by the way.

[charliep]

To your topic TOM4CWB, I agree. Canada needs to
rethink risk management along the whole supply
chain to deal with the realities of globalization. I
perhaps disagree that we are worst off today that
in the past. I think processing more product in
Canada and diversifying the number of crops
Canada grows has us in better than we would
been with one crop (wheat), one sales organization
(CWB) and one orientation (export). Deregulation
of the industry and allowing more alternatives
combined with well thought out risk management
products (private and public) is what is needed.

[Burbert]

"Risk Management". What is it? Isn't it simply, a fancy name, for trying to make a buck, farming? Just think of all the modern efficient ways of doing things on the farm, doesn't it all translate into everyone along the chain, making money, EXCEPT the farmer. Nothing ever changes. Globalization/Free Trade all benefit angribusiness, not the low flying farmer.....

[Hopperbin]

Burbert some farmers like to say they run their farm like a business while I am proud to say I run my farm like a family business not unlike most other family businesses not related to farming. We have choices of buying expensive latest machinery or cheaper more labor intensive used, buy RR risistant or other, liquid or dry, rent or buy, level of debt, sell now later etc, they are all choices as farmer makes every year. Its all risk management, it will never be over.

[TOM4CWB]

Burbert,

I think of minimum price contracts offered by folks like Cargill... on the first 10bu/ac.

We need some weather products that could allow more prepricing... IF and when profitable prices become available.

It is all about survival of our farms... and guess what... most of the business partners up the supply chain want my farm to be profitable... so we will produce consistent supply... and make the whole chain work.

Without growers Burbert... there is no chain.

[dirtgirl]

What is the thinking about Agristability next year? In our experience CAIS did help manage risk - the frost of 2004 as an example. If 2009 were to trigger widespread, massive claims would the government adequately fund the program???

[Hopperbin]

I would think so as there will likely be a 100 billion dollars flying in all directions from the govern't. Would be odd if the farmers triggered payments and did not get paid.

[stubblejumper]

Charlie than main reason a so called open market wouldn't work along with the CWB is that a few producers or companies would try to cherry pick the best easiest market(US) and leave the rest of the world market to everyone else.