Larry's Estimate

[bucket]

At the bottom of larry weber report today, he made mention of close to 9,800,000 unseeded acres. Lets just say 10 million for ease of argument and what's been destroyed by water.

At a modest 50 bucks an acre, you would think a 500 million expenditure by either the feds or the proveince would start to generate a little press.

Then, add in what it does for agristabilty payments in future years and you are talking in the billions.

Plus, add in the loss of experienced farmers and young farmers that say they not getting in given the last decade. You have an industry that will be in a crisis never seen before.

Its the average age of farmers, that has to be rolled over and the fact that this spring was a wake up call.

Would a farmer consider expanding given this spring and risk it all to buy out a neighbor? I know a few would but lots are thinking their farms are at a good size and providing a good comfortable living - why risk it?

And for the younger farmer with a good paycheck - why come back. If dad sells the farm, he could inherit a cool million and have a comfortable living.

Just thoughts heard from the farm neighborhood.

[parsley]

If you can put aside the hands-on farming aspect of land, for a moment, and view your land:

... as a basic reasonable, sound investment;
...as a 100% non-renewable resource;
...as international investment property that attracts countless buyers;
...as a family heritage;
...as an limitless base for any type of enterprise: trees, bees, crops, livestock, quarantine; research; etc;
...as a fifty-year non-depreciating investment;
...as an investment @ a capital gains gift;
...as a quiet holiday retreat;
...as an investment opportunity to improve every year, with limited means, such as planting shelter belts, fencing, breaking bush, etc;

then, you will be truly pleased you do not have BP shares, and your patch of land will make you widly smile. Pars

[furrowtickler]

It's going to be hard for some, but your right pars...

[bucket]

And the bank, fcc, input suppliers would laugh me out of their offices while they foreclose, if I explained that to them.


Meanwhile, they will happily pay through taxes and higher fuel costs the manmade disaster in the gulf.

The sentimental value of my farm means nothing to my lenders.Period. Nothing.

And neither does the fact it is a good investment that I will pay for later than sooner given the current weather.

A smile will come when the sun breaks through and I can get seeding again but thats not looking too good now.

[parsley]

If you really want to keep your land, then downsize your trinkets and use the cash to make your payments.

Drive a pelter. Halve your cable. Sell the AV's. etc.

It's all in what you priotize. Pars

[furrowtickler]

Back to Larry's estimate - numbers are going to shock some humble others.

[bucket]

70% seeded and how much lost due to excessive moisture.

Would 10% be a fair estimate across the three provinces. After watching the farms news today - that would be pretty generous considering what has been seen through manitoba.

So lets say what is still left to grow is 60% and normal yields. Production of 60% of the ten year average gives us what?

Would it be lower production than the year prices went through the roof?

Take flax, how much is seeded and how much of the new crop production will be available for sale? Old crop has disappeared better than the previous year so buyers looking at the stats for flax ought to be in a buying mood because it would be quite a bargain at 8.50.

Any comments?

[furrowtickler]

Would be good to know what has been seeded in the 60-70%. The areas that have less than 50% seeded what actualy is in the ground?, that to me is the important question. Crop Ins will know exaclty at the dealines.

[freewheat]

Furrow, Guys here seed wheat or peas first generally. I would assume most of the 10-15% seeded here is wheat or peas.

[jethro456]

Im from Southern Alberta, and things dont look good here. This is an area where we never seed in June and most are usually done mid May.

I cant give accurate percentage of seeded acres, but I can say that there is a lot left to go in certain areas, and it is very wet. Guys are mucking it in, works on the sandier land but the clay looks terrible.

As for the crops that are up, there are fields all over that have 40 acres bare patches where it stayed wet too long. Others havent emerged and I fear they will be worse. Our land drains very well but Im still seeing huge areas where nothing emerged. One guy here reseeded 15000 acres and he thinks its done again.

Calling for mid twenties next week, just in time to crust everthing over.
What a year

[SASKFARMER3]

Sask is at 70% completed its just been released.

[furrowtickler]

Is there an acreage breakdown, as far as what percentage of each crop is in? I think for that we will have to wait for Crop Ins deadlines.

[fjlip]

Area 5B at 29% up 1% all week. That's us, on average, last to seed. We are direct opposite to the poor guys normally too dry to the west. As much as those fear drought, we fear too wet in spring and at harvest. Each of us unable to fathom the other's predicament. Last year their short crop, this year we are big unseeded losers.
9AE PA 43%, 8B Melfort 46%, 8A Tisdale 51%, 5A Yorkton 58%, 6A Watrous 65%, 2A Weyburn 65%, 1B Grenfell 68%. the rest are all better. N of Maple creek the most at 94%.

[agstar77]

U.S. Weather office says above normal rains for Sask next week.