Dear Larry,
Good Job!
"Larry Weber always has something to say, and when it comes to agriculture he actually knows what he's talking about.
Ok - maybe that wasn't a very nice joke, but a good-natured guy like Weber likely won't mind. And it's true that the Saskatoon-based commodities and agriculture analyst is a wealth of knowledge when it comes to the industry. Whether it be local, national or international, the man behind Weber Commodities Ltd. understands the ag sector and helps others understand it too.
StarPhoenix business reporter Cassandra Kyle asked Weber five questions this week about Saskatchewan's crop situation and the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB).
SP: What's the moisture situation like in Saskatchewan? Is it still too wet to plant?
LW: In the southeast and northeast parts of Saskatchewan, it is really wet.
And in the southeast, if the forecast rain happens within the next seven days, I think that the probability of getting any more seeding done is very, very low, because if you look at the 10-day map, their forecasts get anywhere between one and three inches of rain and that's on top of one to four inches that they received over the long weekend, and that will put seeding in a standstill.
And we've got the extreme on the other side of the province. In that west-central (area) and parts of the northwest we haven't had very much precipitation since April 1. We've almost got - and I hate to say it - but a drought going on.
In agriculture there doesn't seem to be middle ground.
SP: Why are prices for crops on the rise?
LW: It's a supply and demand thing. Let's start with corn. We've got corn that's well over $7 in the United States and we've got five billion bushels being diverted to ethanol in the United States and it's been an absolute godsend for grain farmers. As long as that demand stays there we're going to see the demand filter through for all grains - not just corn but for wheat.
With wheat, we're going to be short protein wheat again for another year. . . . High-protein wheat does not like moisture. To produce highprotein wheat you need a multitude of nitrogen and you need hot, dry weather. We have not had protein wheat produced in the magnitude that we should have in North America for the past 2.5 years. So we're seeing that Minneapolis wheat traded (Tuesday) at $15.41 . . . and it's not done going up. Were going to be short protein wheat for a very, very long time.
It's just a multitude of crop development around the world: It's dry in China, we've got France (where) it's very, very dry, Kazakhstan is drying out almost to the extent that it did in Russia last year. We did not have an overabundance of all grains and it's a multitude of crop problems around the world that are raising prices.
SP: What's your outlook for the Saskatchewan crop year?
LW: Depends which side of the province you're on. If you're in the southeast and northeast - my heart goes out to those farmers because I just don't see a happy ending to this scenario. With the rain that fell over the weekend we're looking at past June 1 planting. We're running out of days for wheat.
For the farmers in northwest Saskatchewan, who this year have made amazing seeding progress, as well as west-central Saskatchewan and southwest Saskatchewan, if they get a crop it's going to be an amazing year.
It's going to be a tale of a divided province when it comes to farm revenue.
SP: What's your position on the Canadian Wheat Board issue?
LW: My position is quite well-known. I'm a free-trade, free-enterprise advocate and have been my entire life.
I believe that it's in farmers' best interests if they can manage their own crops that they grow. I do not subscribe to the theory that the board needs a monopoly to survive.
It's going to be interesting to see how the board reacts to this Conservative government with a majority. It's a $5-billion to $8-billion corporation - and a corporation with that much sales has to have a disaster recovery plan, and if they haven't planned for the day that they were going to lose the monopoly, they're doing their supporters a huge disservice. So hopefully the have Plan B. If they don't have Plan B then it has been an absolute travesty because I know of no corporation that has that multitude of sales that does not have a disaster recovery plan.
SP: What's your favourite thing to do in Saskatchewan in the summer?
LW: Absolutely fishing. While I didn't make it up to Keeley Lake last year, it is my absolute favourite lake in northern Saskatchewan. What better way to pass time than sitting on a lake in a boat thinking about how much grain we're going to grow in Saskatchewan.
ckyle@thestarphoenix.com
Read more: http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Weber eyes scene/4842170/story.html#ixzz1NXYjsBYC
Good Job!
"Larry Weber always has something to say, and when it comes to agriculture he actually knows what he's talking about.
Ok - maybe that wasn't a very nice joke, but a good-natured guy like Weber likely won't mind. And it's true that the Saskatoon-based commodities and agriculture analyst is a wealth of knowledge when it comes to the industry. Whether it be local, national or international, the man behind Weber Commodities Ltd. understands the ag sector and helps others understand it too.
StarPhoenix business reporter Cassandra Kyle asked Weber five questions this week about Saskatchewan's crop situation and the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB).
SP: What's the moisture situation like in Saskatchewan? Is it still too wet to plant?
LW: In the southeast and northeast parts of Saskatchewan, it is really wet.
And in the southeast, if the forecast rain happens within the next seven days, I think that the probability of getting any more seeding done is very, very low, because if you look at the 10-day map, their forecasts get anywhere between one and three inches of rain and that's on top of one to four inches that they received over the long weekend, and that will put seeding in a standstill.
And we've got the extreme on the other side of the province. In that west-central (area) and parts of the northwest we haven't had very much precipitation since April 1. We've almost got - and I hate to say it - but a drought going on.
In agriculture there doesn't seem to be middle ground.
SP: Why are prices for crops on the rise?
LW: It's a supply and demand thing. Let's start with corn. We've got corn that's well over $7 in the United States and we've got five billion bushels being diverted to ethanol in the United States and it's been an absolute godsend for grain farmers. As long as that demand stays there we're going to see the demand filter through for all grains - not just corn but for wheat.
With wheat, we're going to be short protein wheat again for another year. . . . High-protein wheat does not like moisture. To produce highprotein wheat you need a multitude of nitrogen and you need hot, dry weather. We have not had protein wheat produced in the magnitude that we should have in North America for the past 2.5 years. So we're seeing that Minneapolis wheat traded (Tuesday) at $15.41 . . . and it's not done going up. Were going to be short protein wheat for a very, very long time.
It's just a multitude of crop development around the world: It's dry in China, we've got France (where) it's very, very dry, Kazakhstan is drying out almost to the extent that it did in Russia last year. We did not have an overabundance of all grains and it's a multitude of crop problems around the world that are raising prices.
SP: What's your outlook for the Saskatchewan crop year?
LW: Depends which side of the province you're on. If you're in the southeast and northeast - my heart goes out to those farmers because I just don't see a happy ending to this scenario. With the rain that fell over the weekend we're looking at past June 1 planting. We're running out of days for wheat.
For the farmers in northwest Saskatchewan, who this year have made amazing seeding progress, as well as west-central Saskatchewan and southwest Saskatchewan, if they get a crop it's going to be an amazing year.
It's going to be a tale of a divided province when it comes to farm revenue.
SP: What's your position on the Canadian Wheat Board issue?
LW: My position is quite well-known. I'm a free-trade, free-enterprise advocate and have been my entire life.
I believe that it's in farmers' best interests if they can manage their own crops that they grow. I do not subscribe to the theory that the board needs a monopoly to survive.
It's going to be interesting to see how the board reacts to this Conservative government with a majority. It's a $5-billion to $8-billion corporation - and a corporation with that much sales has to have a disaster recovery plan, and if they haven't planned for the day that they were going to lose the monopoly, they're doing their supporters a huge disservice. So hopefully the have Plan B. If they don't have Plan B then it has been an absolute travesty because I know of no corporation that has that multitude of sales that does not have a disaster recovery plan.
SP: What's your favourite thing to do in Saskatchewan in the summer?
LW: Absolutely fishing. While I didn't make it up to Keeley Lake last year, it is my absolute favourite lake in northern Saskatchewan. What better way to pass time than sitting on a lake in a boat thinking about how much grain we're going to grow in Saskatchewan.
ckyle@thestarphoenix.com
Read more: http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Weber eyes scene/4842170/story.html#ixzz1NXYjsBYC
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