Stuff i don't tell you about

[cottonpicken]

http://www.stockhouse.com/tools/?page=%2FFinancialTools%2Fsn%5Foverview%2Easp%3Fsy mbol%3DTMF%26table%3DNYSE


Miss step,these bastards just beat me year over year.

Charlie(i know you trade) and Hopper and some others may relate to to the emotion factor.

[charliep]

Not a trader as such for either futures or financials - a hold and pray would be a
more accurate description. Given my stage in life, I am following the overall
economic situation carefully and recognize the implications of things that are
happening around us that you highlight. Likely everyone else, trying to access
implications and come up with a reasonable investment strategy based on some
assessment of risk/reward or pain/gain if you like better. Trying to find a
balance of investments that are reasonably secure in terms of underlying asset
value, don't have volatility that contributes to my blood pressure and has a
reasonable rate of return via dividends or interest. Not an easy job today. You
gave me a hard time about my investments and I might agree. Sometimes I
think I would be better just to fill a mattress with money (the little I have) and
sleep on it. Participants are lucky to have land as an investment (not talking
about the productive value or the ability to grow crop). Land may go up and
down in value but it will always be a scarce resource.

[boarderbloke]

Denninger 2011/09/21

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=194590

[charliep]

Off your original topic but I am following the debate on the cuts to the US farm bill carefully and Obama's proposed cuts.

Specifically to direct payments and crop insurance support/other income programs.

What governments do to get their financial houses in order will have direct impact on farmers around the world.

Easy to deal with these cuts in a year of $7/bu corn and $14/bu beans but will have a greater impact in upcoming years.

[cottonpicken]

This is looking really,really bad.

Once the dominoes start to tip all hell will break loose.

Watch the big banks in europe and here start to tip over.

[cottonpicken]

Its looking like game over for europe.

Greece is small potatoes for the eurozone and its
default is looking like a 100% guarantee according
to its bond market.

The implications go like this-greek defaults and the
banks that have exposure have to do a write
down,but they have already leveraged the
investment so they are instantly insolvent-people
who are aware of this will instantly overnight move
there capital out of the bank,aka bankrun.There are
rumours going around that this has started.

The big one is bnp of france,frances largest bank.

Theoretically the ecb can step in to provide
liquidity,no matter how many germans squeal, but
bnp is also has counter party risks who have to
absorb rightdowns,like morgan stanley who has a
huge risk exposure to french banks.

Now remember greece is small
potatoes,spain,italy,portugal are many times larger
in scope.

This is the derivative time bomb domino effect
nobody wants but cant be stopped.

[cottonpicken]

I cant remember bugging you about your specific
investments,i only remember attacking broad asset
class's,if it wasn't that i'm sorry.

And trust me i took as bad or worse of a likin today
as anyone else.

I had a 1.5 hour window after fomc speech and i
failed to act,could have followed king fox sprott out
of the chicken coop and come back the next night
for more but i got greedy and farmer boggis shot
my tail off.

Someday i'll learn.

[charliep]

No problem. Live in different worlds and our choice of investment strategies would reflect that. Not good or bad - just different. I have taken some courses at the university of speculation which involved some hefty tuitition. My decision is as much stress test as anything - didn't like the decision around stops/strategies first thing in the morning at breakfast. Others here are likely better at it.

[rhoff]

Help me to understand is this a leveraged ETF
long or short 30year treasuries?

[crusher]

charlie,

lol

[Hopperbin]

Actually I exited half my portfolio today and have cash now today. So far no loss or gain on this transaction other than the loss I just stomached. Cotton I like this trading and typically invest in companies with a low pe ratio so far works for me. GWO just turned out a small loss. Was one of them dividend companies that I tried. I thinking they are tied into the euro thing so thought to get out and see where the dust settles. Cotton these publicly traded companies are making money and employing people. Life will go on for these companies. Its average Joe that has to pay the tax not the publicly traded company. Joe will still work and need work.

[cottonpicken]

3x long,long dated treasuries.Based on price not
yield.

One of the things that never cross's any canadians
mind is the fact that many people around the world
wake up and all the money they thought they had
in the bank is gone.

The top douche of bank of nova scotia was on bnn
and said "yes we have exposure to french banks,but
i'm not saying anything else"

?????????-**** you prick,your god damn well
obligated in my mind,to tell us everything NOW

Remember that lehmans was triple a rating when it
went down

[rhoff]

It's amazing how they can make a financial
product to do anything for anyone. My investing
style is a lot less exciting than yours. I think over
the next year there will be great buys among
P&C insurers. Meanwhile life companies will
have a long road ahead of them ie. Manulife.
I guess if you know long dated treasuries are
going to be bought up by the bernanke then
someone will develop a leveraged ETF that's 3x
short manulife.

[poorboy]

Original thinking as I understand it is that the worlds money is going to flee Europe and banks with exposure to europe and move into commodities and rally the price of grains.

Sure have not seen this the last few days. Is this still a belief that will occur, or is the us $ going to just keep appreciating.

Part of me sure wants to believe the grains will hold stable or increase, but part of me thinks that values today are not that bad and it sure would suck to watch everything drop by 1/3 and then I sell.

Thanks to everyone who does post on this site with there ideas and thinking ahead. I realize not everyone is going to be right, but I am sure learning lots just from the exposure.

[cottonpicken]

Not good


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rMRkWnwU81g/Tn0s8oj0b8I/AAAAAAAAApg/J-XVCn4vCV8/s1600/snapshot-918.png