Why do the old crop wheat pool return outlook forecasts include pennies?

[charliep]

I looked at the CBB old crop PRO and tried to figger out why they estimated to pennies. Then I checked 02/03 initial payments. Guess what? They are the same.

Implication (no surprise as known before) - The 02/03 wheat excluding durum pricing pool is in a deficit. The only question is how big.

The real big winners this past year was anyone who took out the early pricing option. It will be really interesting how well and effectively they covered their risk on this program.

[gmj]

This tells me that the CWB is no better at marketing than the average "Joe Farmer".
They quit selling when the price was in the top 10% range for the last 10 years, and then they went into the market again when when the price was closer to the bottom 25% of the cycle.
Talk about a classic "greed, hope, fear, panic" marketing strategy. Thanks but no thanks.
Let me market my grain the way I want.

[AdamSmith]

Charlie, I noticed that the Malting Barley PRO's dropped more than the wheat PRO's but I thought world 02/03 malting barley prices had remained stable throughout the marketing year?
At least North Dakota Bids remained strong right thru until about 3 weeks ago with 3.25 US$ per bushel quite common throughout ND.

Any chance the CWB is robbing the malt barley pool to prop up the wheat pool?

Or are they taking all intrest earnings from the barley pool and shifting them to the wheat pool?

It just seems most coincidental that the wheat PRO's have settled at exactly where the initials are now set.

If the CWB is doing this, is there any way to know for sure?

And does anybody really care?

[TOM4CWB]

AdamSmith and Charlie;

The Initial is the pool price when the pool goes into a deficit, therefore the pool price cannot drop below the initial, right?

I was astounded by the back log of wheat in southern AB.

When at a local farm retailer, I was stopped in the parking lot and told CWB management of sales was a total disaster. This fellow said that he had not delivered any of his 10's of thousands of bu of wheat contracted and called 100%, till this week he was able to haul his first loads THIS YEAR, because of no space and no rail cars.

Southern AB is really mad, as producers commented about July 31 year end, and the CWB admitted they WILL NOT get enough space for all the CWB wheat to be hauled into the elevators anywhere near July 31st.

How could this happen, with such a low volume for the CWB to handle this year?