Are the Olympics Britain's last hurrah?

[errolanderson]

Just when you think the worst is in,
there's more skullduggery that could
stagger the global financial world.

The scandal now unfolding in the UK
banking system may make Bernie Madoff
look like only a minor league scumbag.
Basically, the scandal involves the rate
that banks lend to each other. Many
banks may be involved.

The Olympics are only days away, but
what will occur to markets once the
excitement of the games are over? This
latest banking scandal is breathtaking
in scope and complex in-nature.

Group . . . bring this to your attention
as this scandal may be large enough to
affect commodity markets globally.


Errol

[crusher]

Thanks for maintaining your bearishness. Bins are locked until it rains in the states.

[charliep]

The market will do whatever it does over the next month. I suspect you have a good base of new crop pricing done. Nothing wrong with sitting back and doing nothing. Just realize this market has potential for a set back/retracement equally as fast as it went up.

I have trouble using the word bearish and $13/bu new crop canola and $8/bu 1CWRS 13.5 straight off the combine. Hard to make a mistake on pricing in here. Errol mentioned options strategies in another thread. Yes, there are production problems but price has never been a way to make up for poor yields. If you live in Alberta, your crop insurance is backed by the variable price benefit (coverage increases if prices are more than 10 % higher than the spring values).

[jensend]

i think they will try to use the olympics as a diversion from a lot of crap that will come out over the next month and hope it fades away before it hits the radar. this rate fixing scandal could do a lot of damage to england's financial services sector and it is a large part of their economy. people should go to jail for doing 'god's work'. lol. the americans are using the election to take attention away from how sick their economy is. if oil continues to fall (and it likely will according to gartman yesterday) how long can they maintain the ethanol mandate? the republicans are against it already and it's just getting more expensive.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie price never makes up forpooryield. Dah
selling canola now vers last fall. Hm 50at 11 = 550
or 36.6 at 15 = 550 now with a good basis. Selling
because companies say it can't go higher is bs,
your giving them supply with locking in production.
Once in last 20 years off the combine was the
highest of the year. We have the raw product that
they need to keep working. Reading what's
happening all over gives one a edge talking to
growers all over is a edge, listening to grain
companies is bs. Yes the world banking system
and debt is a huge problem.huge.

[charliep]

Have never suggested selling because a company told you to. Forward selling because it is a good price, there is potential pain of lower prices and has a fit with a businesses financial plan (profit, cash flow, bin space management, etc.).

I will take you up on your proposition that prices in the fall are always lowest (19 out of 20 years). When I have looked at things, a farmer with a disciplined new crop pricing program can do better most years than a neighbor that sells in the fall in the cash market. If you are rich enough/have the resources to defer all your pricing to the winter, that makes the decision a little different but it is still not 1 in 20 when dealing in the cash market only gives you a better price.

I noted oneoff comment comparing forward pricing to speculation/gambling. An interesting comment from an industry where everyone here has close to $200/acre cash costs sunk into their crops and most don't have a clue what the end financial results will be. Crop insurance provides some backing. Forward pricing is a part of this puzzle.

[rhoff]

Gartmans short oil? Then that really explains the
price action today.

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree but selling in feb jan most years is higher
than fall. If your cash flow is that tight one down
turn and your done. Yellow richie bros.
Disiplined selling does average you out. But again
selling all in fall for today's price you miss future
op. 15 sure is nicer than 11 to 12 last fall.

[SASKFARMER3]

Also why is 6 or 7 good price when it's 2012 and
my diesel bill is more than I made when wheat
was 6 or 7 years ago.
Maybe the new caught up price is 12 canola and
7 hrs.
People need to eat and baring ww3 they will pay
for food.

[oneoff]

I invite charlie and errol to dispute the Stats Canada data on the profitability of farming over the long term.
I'll agree that the industry could point to some achievements; but taking out necessary investment in land and iron; what do farmers; on average; and throughout their career have to show for their efforts each year.

[cottonpicken]

Oneoff,i think about that a lot,what is the long term
growth rate of the average farm.

The exponential function can be applied.

If a farm is growing at 7% a year it doubles every 10
years.

A 1000 acre farm going to 2000 doesn't look like
much,but a 15000 going to 30,000 is something else
and then onto 60,000.

This is the explanation to why things have gotten
bigger so fast,its starts out looking small and then all
of sudden BAM,parabolic growth.

This also needs to be understood when looking at the
global credit crisis.

[oneoff]

Don't take this the wrong way cotton
You're right on; in regards that analysis.
And I don't tink there is any way of getting around it for a reasonable length of time.
The only point I would bring up again is that in the next iterneration ("doubling time period"); the amounts of resources, human bodies, production; amount of electricity etc etc that we are talking about; "will" be more than all the previous amounts of those "products" ever produced or used since the growth rate began on its exponential spiral.

[oneoff]

Now for a reply to the industry spokespersons.

They would agree that the "contracting" system for farmers products which have yet to be sown or harvested is an integral part of the agricultural marketing system.
The perceived bennefit is that a price can be locked in that will guarantee a profit, and that it will exceed what their neighbors will end up receiving.

No sense arguing that you might make an extra nickel or even more. Could be less too; and could be dollars less in years like 2008 or even a few months ago. All I'm saying is that having the majority or all production contracted; certainly shuts oute opportunities; where you could have paid off the farm debt.

But contracting has other ramnifications. One is that the buyers have locked up several months of guaranteed supply; all usually starting with a new crop year. I submit that equates to about a half year where there is not much need to bid agressively for product. After all the non-contractors need to move some grains too; and the price appears stalled at a few nickels less than the month's old contracted bids. Just how is that repeating scenario in any farmer's best marketing plan.

Oh; and as any contract holder knows; it is presupposed that the buyer is still around; and that they have the wherewithall to complete payment some months later.
There tend to be problems completing deals with what turn out to be high priced products.

[oneoff]

Now for a reply to the industry spokespersons.

They would agree that the "contracting" system for farmers products which have yet to be sown or harvested is an integral part of the agricultural marketing system.
The perceived bennefit is that a price can be locked in that will guarantee a profit, and that it will exceed what their neighbors will end up receiving.

No sense arguing that you might make an extra nickel or even more. Could be less too; and could be dollars less in years like 2008 or even a few months ago. All I'm saying is that having the majority or all production contracted; certainly shuts oute opportunities; where you could have paid off the farm debt.

But contracting has other ramnifications. One is that the buyers have locked up several months of guaranteed supply; all usually starting with a new crop year. I submit that equates to about a half year where there is not much need to bid agressively for product. After all the non-contractors need to move some grains too; and the price appears stalled at a few nickels less than the month's old contracted bids. Just how is that repeating scenario in any farmer's best marketing plan.

Oh; and as any contract holder knows; it is presupposed that the buyer is still around; and that they have the wherewithall to complete payment some months later.
There tend to be problems completing deals with what turn out to be high priced products.

[Burbert]

Bullsh*t rules in Comedian framing!!!