Where Would Canola Prices Be If ..............

[charliep]

Canola prices have held up extremely well relative to
the soybean complex.

ICE Canada canola futures - Off $45/tonne from the
highs. Bounced $20/tonne off lows.

Soybeans - Off $3/bu from the highs. Sitting on
lows.

Soybean meal - Off $70/ton from the highs. Sitting
on lows.

Soybean oil - Off 8 cents/lb from the highs. Sitting
on lows.

[charliep]

Just curious, as an industry (not individuals) would we have been better off producing a 16 MMT canola that was sold at an average price of $11/bu or producing a 13 million tonne that will likely be sold for something around $14/bu? As individuals, would you have been better off if Mother nature had cooperated/yields were those in your budgets but prices were 20 % lower?

Realize nobody controls nature but a different of looking at this question. I asked something like this in the past and was reminded the answer depended on your production. Those with production disasters need the price. Those with good yields will be quite happy this year. Prices are still historically high and there are still 9 months of market action ahead of us (things ain't over yet although the past couple of weeks are reminders that market realities can set in).

[GreenValley]

What price would be in Spring or early
summer? As weather journal claim, there
is 3rd straight row possible in return
of La Nina, so possible other year
drought in States as they are seeing
small light of tunnel return of La Nina.
I am holding for Spring till they hit
panic button if it is last year is
repeat in next year crop.

[HappyFarmer]

I think more is better for the industry. If we had a large supply of canola, would keep end users happy and in turn they wouldn't look for alternatives. Then when when the time comes when we don't have the product to sell, will be willing to pay more for a product the are familar with, consumers are familar with, and in turn will pay more for it because it is short in supply. Im sure there will be lots that will say let the big companies starve, let the people stave, they have to pay more BLA, BLA, BLA..., but i would never want someone to say something like that about us, such as "farmers have too much money, we are paying to much for there product, they need to take a cut", you get the picture. More is better. And as farmers, more opprotunity to make more money rather than less in a marketing year.

[farmaholic]

Good point HappyFarmer. You can either feed or starve a market. Starve it and it will die or look for an alternative. Feed it and it will be there to eat what you have another day.

[charliep]

Perhaps the note is canola prices are holding up relatively well given the collapse in soybean/vegatable oil prices. Strong demand based on the markets that have been developed in the past including branding as a healthy vegetable oil. Also agknowledging the reality canola yields were a lot lower that expected this past spring when you guys decided what to grow based on your budgets.

The discussion has been about canola versus soybeans on the east half of the prairies. I suspect all crops including cereals will look good this spring in terms of anticipated profits from your 2013 budgets. I think it will be a good year to re-jig crop rotations to more sane levels. Canola will fight for acres, however, based on price and profit per acre. Your decisions about whether to include or not.

[countryguy]

Holy shit HappyFarmer. I do not think you will be too happy anymore when there is a big supply of canola in the world and you paid 300 an acre to grow it.

[HappyFarmer]

And so are you saying you wouldnt a big supply of
canola out of that 300 buck on your farm
countryguy? I'd doubt it.