• You will need to login or register before you can post a message. If you already have an Agriville account login by clicking the login icon on the top right corner of the page. If you are a new user you will need to Register.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Grain Markets

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Grain Markets

    Been doing a bit of light reading reading this AM.
    A lot of keyboard experts saying the big usa corn and bean crop aint made yet and were 3 days away from drought blah blah got figures and estimates all wrong etc etc

    Seem to me from afar history shows that usda report in the total wash up at years end are never to far out and usa despite weather just seem to grow bigger and bigger crops with less rain called progress.

    Guess when a huge crop is predicted even if it is down a bit and estimates were wrong its basically still a huge crop just not quite as huge as first thought market still takes little notice.

    Europe particularly france and Germany are huge and blacksea/Ukraine upgrading yields all compete directly with our traditional markets. I know cwb and awb claim things would be like this if single desk marketing was still in place well I kinda doubt it.

    Buyers now as we all know its price price price they buy cheapest grain around usually blacksea and if quality isn't up to spec they will buy quality wheat from Canada and Australia and blend. Indonesian and se Asian flour mills were australias domain for years and years possibly freight was a big issue there, now they buy 80% black sea or French wheat and blend with 20% highest quality Aussie wheat and bang they've got what they need for 25% cheaper.

    Down here in aussie land rainfall wise possibly best year Australia wide only isse is to wet in some spots but would suggest above average aussie wheat barley canola and pulse crops.

    Just have to grind it out and wait and take opportunities when and if they arise. As you guys know I planted 30,400 acres this year of wheat barley canola lupins lentils peas chickpeas and hay and my focus is actually domestic markets and export not export alone.

    #2
    You guys in the worlds grain growing utopia of western Canada would be looking at above average crops as well?

    Oh for those politically correct sarcasm was intended lol

    Comment


      #3
      Sarcasm or not, I don't know if Utopia can describe the crops around here. More like Xanadu. It's well beyond above average.

      As far as prices for wheat, we have wheat priced FOB farm for the feed market at prices well above milling wheat prices. Bad news for corn, not much effect on wheat.

      What I wonder is, Black Sea offers are constantly undercutting wheat from the US and Canada so what does that translate to for the farmers that actually grew that (Black Sea) wheat? Why do they keep delivering? Are their economics different?

      Comment


        #4
        For starters I bet their freight isn't a buck a bushel. If they had to operate in our economic environment, that being where all of our expenses are priced based what ever the market will bear, I wonder if they could compete. But then everything might be relative. Isn't Russian and Middle Eastern fertilizer what keeps ours in check, if you have the nerve to call it that.

        Is unfettered Capitalism any better than corrupt Socialism?

        You have to admit alot of North American farmers farm in "style" compared to some of our competitors. We either need the price or volume to compensate....sometimes your lucky and get both.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Braveheart View Post
          Sarcasm or not, I don't know if Utopia can describe the crops around here. More like Xanadu. It's well beyond above average.

          As far as prices for wheat, we have wheat priced FOB farm for the feed market at prices well above milling wheat prices. Bad news for corn, not much effect on wheat.

          What I wonder is, Black Sea offers are constantly undercutting wheat from the US and Canada so what does that translate to for the farmers that actually grew that (Black Sea) wheat? Why do they keep delivering? Are their economics different?
          That a good question I have a german friend who floated the idea of moving to I think Ukraine land is cheap fertilizer NOT needed blacksoil meteres deep hasn't been farmed for that long compared to other countries. Not sure if wheat goes via a govt agency before it hits the open market.

          Anyway this guy decided against it he farms almost 1800 acres in Germany at phenomal yields and govt supported prices.

          Had trouble understanding wheat pricing in Germany they get a top up from govt if prices fall below a certain level they get paid to farm to a degree as well per hectare and dairy farmers for instance if the price of wheat gets to high to feed there animals govt chips in for them so regardless of high prices or low govt always paying, guess they have a huge tax paying populous.

          Braveheart apologies if I offended you. Havent checked todays prices here but suggest $240 to $243 for our standard wheat port basis. Feed barley I shudder to think. Every man and his dog is growing lentils here weve even dabbled have 480 acres but our rainfall and soil type is probably not correct.

          Does stats Canada get there estimates correct in the wash up at end of harvest / marketing year? We have no such reporting in Australia no stats can or usda

          Comment


            #6
            No offence felt here, just some envy that you don't have reporting like Stats Can or USDA.

            Re wheat, I wonder if wheat out the Black Sea region is being fire saled out to earn foreign exchange? Now that the price of oil is low and those countries aren't generating as much fx from oil exports.

            Comment


              #7
              Braveheart

              Didn't something like that happen in the mid 70s and all of a sudden Russia bought all north American grain at a discount?


              It led to mandatory sales reporting.

              Although I agree about the Australian experience with no reporting...who ever is in there counting probably has a better handle on it anyway.

              Infomation moves faster today than in the 70s.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by bucket View Post
                Braveheart

                Didn't something like that happen in the mid 70s and all of a sudden Russia bought all north American grain at a discount?


                It led to mandatory sales reporting.

                Although I agree about the Australian experience with no reporting...who ever is in there counting probably has a better handle on it anyway.

                Infomation moves faster today than in the 70s.
                actually I will rephrase that our grain is either delivered to elevators, sold domestically to end users or stored on farm plus a myriad of private storage facitlities.
                Grain delivered to central system is disclosed by recievers glencore grain corp and cbh but nobody know exactly whats sold and unsold just total deliveries and its also as I said declared by elevator operators not agovt agency so its all a guesstimate and exports are similar not compulsory to declare but there is a shipping schedule which is known

                Comment

                • Reply to this Thread
                • Return to Topic List
                Working...