Been doing a bit of light reading reading this AM.
A lot of keyboard experts saying the big usa corn and bean crop aint made yet and were 3 days away from drought blah blah got figures and estimates all wrong etc etc
Seem to me from afar history shows that usda report in the total wash up at years end are never to far out and usa despite weather just seem to grow bigger and bigger crops with less rain called progress.
Guess when a huge crop is predicted even if it is down a bit and estimates were wrong its basically still a huge crop just not quite as huge as first thought market still takes little notice.
Europe particularly france and Germany are huge and blacksea/Ukraine upgrading yields all compete directly with our traditional markets. I know cwb and awb claim things would be like this if single desk marketing was still in place well I kinda doubt it.
Buyers now as we all know its price price price they buy cheapest grain around usually blacksea and if quality isn't up to spec they will buy quality wheat from Canada and Australia and blend. Indonesian and se Asian flour mills were australias domain for years and years possibly freight was a big issue there, now they buy 80% black sea or French wheat and blend with 20% highest quality Aussie wheat and bang they've got what they need for 25% cheaper.
Down here in aussie land rainfall wise possibly best year Australia wide only isse is to wet in some spots but would suggest above average aussie wheat barley canola and pulse crops.
Just have to grind it out and wait and take opportunities when and if they arise. As you guys know I planted 30,400 acres this year of wheat barley canola lupins lentils peas chickpeas and hay and my focus is actually domestic markets and export not export alone.
A lot of keyboard experts saying the big usa corn and bean crop aint made yet and were 3 days away from drought blah blah got figures and estimates all wrong etc etc
Seem to me from afar history shows that usda report in the total wash up at years end are never to far out and usa despite weather just seem to grow bigger and bigger crops with less rain called progress.
Guess when a huge crop is predicted even if it is down a bit and estimates were wrong its basically still a huge crop just not quite as huge as first thought market still takes little notice.
Europe particularly france and Germany are huge and blacksea/Ukraine upgrading yields all compete directly with our traditional markets. I know cwb and awb claim things would be like this if single desk marketing was still in place well I kinda doubt it.
Buyers now as we all know its price price price they buy cheapest grain around usually blacksea and if quality isn't up to spec they will buy quality wheat from Canada and Australia and blend. Indonesian and se Asian flour mills were australias domain for years and years possibly freight was a big issue there, now they buy 80% black sea or French wheat and blend with 20% highest quality Aussie wheat and bang they've got what they need for 25% cheaper.
Down here in aussie land rainfall wise possibly best year Australia wide only isse is to wet in some spots but would suggest above average aussie wheat barley canola and pulse crops.
Just have to grind it out and wait and take opportunities when and if they arise. As you guys know I planted 30,400 acres this year of wheat barley canola lupins lentils peas chickpeas and hay and my focus is actually domestic markets and export not export alone.
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