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Are These Realistic Numbers?

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    Are These Realistic Numbers?

    Below is part of an article from the WP, describing the costs/yields/net profits of various crops. Are these realistic numbers.....and if so, how can people justify paying todays land prices?

    "Statistics Canada recently released new crop production estimates. While yields vary from one province to another, let’s use average Sask­atchewan yields since we’re using Saskatchewan expense numbers. 


    Crop prices can vary dramatically from one day to the next, but I tried to use reasonable assumptions based on information from buyers and brokers. 


    According to Statistics Canada, the average yield of canola in Saskatchewan was only 25 bushels per acre this year. Assuming a price of $13.50 per bushel picked up on the farm and subtracting total rotational expenses of $268 an acre, you’re left with a return of roughly $70 an acre.


    The average yield of flax in the province is estimated at 21.6 bu. per acre. Assuming a price of $14.25 per bu. and total expenses of $199 an acre, the return is $109 an acre. Although the gross return from flax is lower than canola, expenses are also lower, leading to a larger net return.


    Some producers have long claimed that they can make more money with flax than canola. This year, the numbers for Saskatchewan indicate that is indeed the case. 


    The big equalizer is the disappointing canola yield. Canola profitability would pull ahead of flax if canola yields were three or four bu. better.


    While canola is still one of the top crops for profitability, lentils have gone from one of the most profitable to one of the least lucrative.


    Statistics Canada pegs average lentil yields at 1,296 pounds per acre. Assuming a price of 20 cents a lb. and subtracting production costs of $230 an acre leaves a return of just $29 an acre. That’s in the same bottom tier as barley and oats.


    Barley yielded an average of 49.2 bu. per acre and feed barley picked up on the farm in Saskatchewan is worth about $5.20 per bu. Some areas are higher and some lower, depending on freight costs. Meanwhile, oats averaged 76.2 bu. per acre and the price assumption is $3.25 per bu.


    With costs at $231 an acre for barley and $221 an acre for oats, these crops come out with net returns of $25 to $27 an acre.


    It’s interesting to note that field peas are more profitable than lentils this year. With an average yield of 28.7 bu. per acre and assuming a price of $8.25, the net return pencils in at $56 an acre.


    If you look at spring wheat (35.1 bu. per acre) and durum (33.9 bu. per acre) and assume a price for both of around $8 per bu., the net return for durum is $41 an acre while spring wheat is $55. That’s respectable compared to the other options.


    All the crops are money makers, but net returns haven’t turned out the way most expected in the spring"

    #2
    And that's why our big boys from Calgary and
    Toronto will pack up their toys and go home. Take
    a 5 bushel lower yield for our big boys and they
    are loosing millions again this year.
    3 to five and it's bye bye!

    Comment


      #3
      I think flax acres are set to explode next year along with wheat acres.

      Too many guys shortened their canola/lentil rotations and are hearing their neighbors doing better with wheat and flax.

      Lentils will be down if prices don't move back to profitable levels.

      Imagine growing 1000 acres of lentils and only netting 29000 bucks. Won't even pay for the combine that gets wrecked growing them.

      Comment


        #4
        not sure what your expenses are ASRG but I sure can't put a canola crop in for anywhere near $268 an acre. Same goes for $225 barley.

        Comment


          #5
          Maybe with free land rent those expenses would just about be right

          Comment


            #6
            Well they never really broke down the costs, which does make it difficult to compare our own costs with what they are claiming.
            I'm assuming there would have to be a rotation of cereals and other crops so it wouldn't be like you were ringing the bell with flax or canola every year.
            The article doesn't say if a rent or interest is included in costs....that could change the ballgame?
            5% interest on $2000/acre land would be $100/acre. That's a pretty big input?

            Comment


              #7
              If flax acres explode next year and everyone tries to sell their production at once prices will implode big time. The flax market is half the size it was pre-triffid.

              Comment


                #8
                Yep and that's why I am trying to get some 13 dollar flax locked up for next October.

                Last year I signed in November at 13.51, it spiked a little from that but still good for an off the combine flax price.

                Prices for flax should hold into spring. Then the high price will buy a shitload of acres from those that plant based on spring prices.

                I might grow lentils next year, cheaper to put in, and the traditional guys are getting out because of rotations and returns. And they are going to chase the flax down. Lower lentils acres = better prices.

                Comment

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