2013: A Global Commodity Slump?

[sumdumguy]

I watched at Grocery store while non- locals
ooed and awed over bags of soup mix( dry
beans) and picking up 2 bags at $2.89 each,
then some Lentils, same kind of price.
They dont even look at the price. Total raw value
to farmers couldn't have been more than $1 or so
sold in store for just under $9.

[hedgehog]

there are so many farmers in the uk currently short of grain to fill contracts, getting screwed by buyers to pay the difference, there will be little sold forward this year.
With huge areas currently too wet to plant or covered in water post planting, no one has a clue what they will have to sell in 2013.
potato growers are worst off, with frre market spuds £300, contract at £120, and yields half of normal.

[GreenValley]

errol, thanks but no thanks, i am holding. u didn't include weather forecast for 2013 as overall summary for 2013. Look South American they going increase almost 3x ethanol for next year which is good news. who u work for, a short trader?

[errolanderson]

walk . . . we are going after December
'13 corn put options right now as a
guard.

If the market cracks, feel it will be a
general commodity move. Like these puts
as they offer super time and if you
decide to get rid of them next summer,
there would still be good value in them.
But if market breaks, corn may be the
leader to the downside.

USDA spokesman stated that 2014 - 15
corn ending stocks at 1.8 to 1.9 billion
bu should yields recover to norm.
Currently , USDA pegging current 2012-13
stock at 619 million bu. There have been
some American advisors now suggesting
that U.S. growers sell their corn soon.

Errol

[Hopperbin]

China and India is going to eat and they are eating more this may be repeating. A mear 5 percent growth means that they will eat better and more meat and they need to import soybeans and corn to produce the meat plus they use them two grains to make a lot of things. Is the biofuels slowing down or consuming more?
Sorry if I am coming off as hard here but seems to me the poor are feeding themselves better since the price of food has increased. Not sure if makes sense to most but I think in some economies that are poor the farmers are the base of the economy and those countries are better off. We are selling all our grains to people who are buying them we are not giving them away, rice may ration to wheat etc or vise versa. Not sure how this all fits together but if everyone was a bull we would likely be screwed.

[errolanderson]

Hopper . . . getting increasingly uneasy
over the new crop corn market in the
U.S. Some American analysts are
virtually calling corn prices in crack
in 1/2 by next fall if yields come back
to normal. Ethanol production and usuage
has taken a hit.

One major American firm has put out a
suggestion to guard this potential
downside by purchasing a Dec '13 corn $6
put and sell a Dec '13 $4.80 corn put.