2013: A Global Commodity Slump?

[errolanderson]

Throwing out an opinion that nobody wants to hear but . . . .

2013 could be a rough year for commodity markets in general (IMO). The significant slowdown in global economies due to Europe's depression could be a sizable price deterriment.

Still believe deflation is the risk, not inflation. Recent Bank of Canada comments that rates may actually drop after stating for months that rate increases are in-order suggest that politicians are starting to smell-the-coffee of growing economic problems. Ben Bernanke is now 'all in' in this poker game.

Sensing that crude oil prices could continue to weaken in the months ahead barring Middle East war. Natural gas may be the exception as this industry has already gone through their depression.

Reason for these comments is to encourage growers to take a look at attactive new crop prices. IMO, new crop canola futures could slip below $500/MT once again, if crude topples.

Again not a popular opionion on this site, but the remains of this years canola crop could be fought for at lower price levels.

China will ultimately eat cheaper (IMO).

There are a lot of rampant bulls on agriville. But the market is always right. And the market will soon tells us what it can afford as we head into 2013.

Errol

[cottonpicken]

Errol,i apploude your resolve,and many others that
are working on a sunday night,but please face the
facts.

Your own capital is at risk,.....farmers are insulatted
,your not

And god forbid you are working to suck cheap grain
out of the hands of hard working farmers,i will have
no mercy on you.

[sumdumguy]

Cotton, you sound pretty smug. When guys are
flying high they tend to be blindsided to the
downside. Been there, got taught some valuable
lessons.

People dont always have motive, sometimes
they call the market as they see it. Prior to 2008,
the neysayers were ridiculed. The American
housing market thought it could inflate forever.

Everything cycles! If you owned a machinery
dealership in 2006, you got killed. Today different
cycle and so it goes.

[SASKFARMER3]

Errol I like your persistence. You remind me of
Don, wheat wheat wheat. It only once hit his
mark.
As a farmer if canola is 11 this spring and wheat 5
do you think I will spend any thing on the 2013
crop. I'll spend more time at the lake and basically
say S t a r v.

[sumdumguy]

Cotton, you sound pretty smug. When guys are
flying high they tend to be blindsided to the
downside. Been there, got taught some valuable
lessons.

People dont always have motive, sometimes
they call the market as they see it. Prior to 2008,
the neysayers were ridiculed. The American
housing market thought it could inflate forever.

Everything cycles! If you owned a machinery
dealership in 2006, you got killed. Today different
cycle and so it goes.

[SASKFARMER3]

You are right a down cycle will happen maybe
next winter or 2014. It will happen but I don't think
this winter. Their will be a shake up after the USA
election.

[bucket]

None of this can happen until the world starts rebuilding stocks of grain.

Its not likely this year so the rebuild can't start until 2014 at the earliest.

[ajl]

The market does want to move lower on
fundamentals, however can it do that
Errol in the face of QE forever? I
believe that the market will move lower
in real terms but higher in nominal
because of currency depreciation.

[crusher]

Not going to argue the recession but I will argue commodities overall. Gold, silver, grains, oilseeds may still do alright.

Going to Europe this winter and have my eye on the euro exchange rate. I'm upside down 7% since September, markets think the worst is over (short term).

[crusher]

p.s. and thanks for the comments, nice pop again this morning. Getting pretty close to my next target sell.

$500 canola may happen, $600 canola may happen too. Just depends when you choose to act.

[SASKFARMER3]

Wheat will have a run, dry USA, problems in
Argentina and Australia has feed plus Ukraine will
be done in a month for sales. Hm. 700 canola is
possible. So is 500, I'll go with 700.

[cottonpicken]

Yes i was ridiculed for talking about housing back
then.

Also about gold,20 dollar wheat,24 dollar beans and
oil going to 50.

And now its currency debasement.

The savers and fixed income earners are being
robbed everyday and they don't even know it.

And now the window of time to protect themselves is
almost gone.

I've tried many methods and writing styles over 9
years to help people understand whats happening.

Smug?I've been called worse things by better people.

[bucket]

cotton

Land is still a good investment. Which is why I don't understand why old people are selling out to have cash that will be worthless.

[bucket]

And what's worse, old people are selling out to buy a house in the city that will also be worth less in a few years. Nice house though. Not even close to being worth what they are paying.

[ado089]

I don't know how far off Errol is. Think
Japan circa 1993 to present, now make
that demographic disaster a global
event. China is more or less done with
population growth, they'll get old
before they get rich, India might have a
few more years left in them but I think
at the end of the day politics are worse
there than china and Africa is, well Africa, the rest of the world at 1.7
children per woman isn't even covering
off maintenance. Stagnant population =
stagnant economy.