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Why mega farms won't make it in western Canada?

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    #13
    Furrow:

    Help me get my head around this because you are on this land is overvalued kick ...

    A $25,000 new JD 4430 in 1979, adjusted for the manipulated CPI inflation rate is $74,900 in 2012... yet the same 125 -130 HP tractor today is over 100K and people are paying it.

    What does a 7730 do better than a 4430 for an additonal 25%?

    An $80,000 quarter of land at the peak in 1979 is inflation adjusted to $239,803 in 2012.

    Currency and the buying power as we know it, is about to become ass wipe.

    Do you think farmland prices will come down in that environment?

    Just asking...

    Comment

      #14
      For apples to apples comparison, you
      would have to compare a 4430 to a 6110
      (one of those reduced feature models to
      be comparable) or something like that.
      You will likely find that the new
      tractor compares in price mainly due to
      it like a 4430 would be 2wd. Do you
      think that the ethanol mandate will
      survive a new depression? The other
      thing that happens as food prices
      inflate is that people do go without and
      many are on food aid because they can no
      longer afford to eat. You would be
      surprised at how few calories you could
      survive on. Waste is also reduced. So
      it is very likely we will at some point
      see a commodity pull back. Enjoy the
      ride while it lasts.

      Comment

        #15
        I f/u. It was a 7330 with 2WD not MFWD. I built it online to get the 100K price.

        Comment

          #16
          Burpfart nice to see you crawled out from under
          your rock.
          Simply all the big land deals are sitting in limbo.
          No one has received any titles and only small
          deposits. So are they delaying purchases
          because they figured out that no one wants to
          over pay for poor to marginal land rent or
          purchase. Or on awesome land is rent reaching
          limit. Burpfart that's normal questions that need to
          be asked. Your BS is BS.

          Comment

            #17
            <!DOCTYPE html>
            <html>
            <body>

            <p>FAO STAT EPO</p>
            <img src="http://www.earthpolicy.org/images/uploads/graphs_tables/highlights32_FoodPrices.PNG"
            </body>
            </html>

            Comment

              #18
              Here is comparing apples to apples...I bought 1/2 section in 76 for 45000 the seller bought a house in Weyburn with the money. That exact house sold a couple years ago for 290000.That 1/2 would have been worth 150000 then.Now worth 250000.Has finally started to catch back up on lost ground but has room to go up a bit yet. Farmland vs houses in Sask has not kept up like Alberta and Manitoba. It is only catch up time.

              Comment

                #19
                "catch back up on lost ground", now that's funny... or

                two old guys talking about the value of a dollar. One says to the other, "when I was a boy, my mother sent me to the grocery store with a dollar. When I got home I had six potatoes, two loaves of bread, a gallon of milk, four steaks and a chunk of cheese. The problem today is too many *!#&* security cameras."

                Comment

                  #20
                  Its all about math and return on capital and inflation.

                  I *** wish interest rates would spike like the early
                  eighties,i could liquidate buy some thirty year bonds
                  and get a job driving school bus,sell them 30's in a
                  few years and buy the dow,then sell in a few years
                  and buy houses in vegas,the perfect 70's-80's-90's-
                  00's investment timeline.

                  Alas we aint in kansas,we are all playing a very high
                  stake game whether we like it or not-dont shoot the
                  messenger -i'm not sure what the next play past
                  tangibles is but houses in vegas are real-real cheap.

                  Comment

                    #21
                    Lweber, are you currently actually buying farmland?

                    My pea brain must work differently than some peoples, I respect your theories and predictions but that,s all they are so I will give you mine. To me land was a good buy at 80,000 even 100,000 a quarter not 260,000(relative to the area of course). It would appear that the inflation has already happened when it inflated from 80,000 to 260,000 in 7 years.

                    Land should be priced off its ability to generate revenue which it has gone beyond, it is now a prized possession that people will do anything to get. Even my city uncles want to "buy some land cause its a great investment" but when it was "cheap" 7 years ago they had no interest. When guys like that want in thats when I sit on my hands.

                    Comment

                      #22
                      Cotton, they are real cheap, and it looks like a no
                      brainer. We have been snooping around there for
                      years. We especially like Lake Las Vegas Resort
                      in Henderson. Looks quite secure but the HOA
                      fees are atrocious to keep 3 golf courses alive.

                      Lots of great deals, but when you go back to
                      some of these beautiful areas, there are broken
                      down cars with flat tires, couches on the
                      sidewalks, big trucks with blacked out windows.
                      There are tons of comp rooms in Vegas and if
                      you goto Hotelspy.com, you can stay right on the
                      strip for under $50 a night. Right On! Thats only
                      $600 a month, cant resist.
                      We can't

                      Comment

                        #23
                        Lweber, are you currently actually buying farmland?

                        My pea brain must work differently than some peoples, I respect your theories and predictions but that,s all they are so I will give you mine. To me land was a good buy at 80,000 even 100,000 a quarter not 260,000(relative to the area of course). It would appear that the inflation has already happened when it inflated from 80,000 to 260,000 in 7 years.

                        Land should be priced off its ability to generate revenue which it has gone beyond, it is now a prized possession that people will do anything to get. Even my city uncles want to "buy some land cause its a great investment" but when it was "cheap" 7 years ago they had no interest. When guys like that want in thats when I sit on my hands.

                        Comment

                          #24
                          Cotton, they are real cheap, and it looks like a no
                          brainer. We have been snooping around there for
                          years. We especially like Lake Las Vegas Resort
                          in Henderson. Looks quite secure but the HOA
                          fees are atrocious to keep 3 golf courses alive.

                          Lots of great deals, but when you go back to
                          some of these beautiful areas, there are broken
                          down cars with flat tires, couches on the
                          sidewalks, big trucks with blacked out windows.
                          There are tons of comp rooms in Vegas and if
                          you goto Hotelspy.com, you can stay right on the
                          strip for under $50 a night. Right On! Thats only
                          $600 a month, cant resist.
                          We can't

                          Comment

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