Why mega farms won't make it in western Canada?

[SASKFARMER3]

As we put equipment away and see the end of
another production cycle in western Canada.
All land worked, ditched (landscaped) roads
builds, stones picked on land that needed it.
Winter arrived this morning in east central
Saskatchewan.
But myself and all my long running neighbors can
say it was a remarkable year!
But not so for my super neighbors. Their still
harvesting,
Most farms that are under 20000 acres are done,
but Mother Nature has a way of equalling out the
equation. High rent, high purchase price, big
equipment and lots and lots of expenses, but you
still have to finish the race.
20 combines can't go when their is snow on the
ground. Or ten 80 ft air drills can't seed all of
Saskatchewan.
I wish all the investors a great winter. Also this
just in paying 250,000 for marginal land does not
help out the equation either.

[ajl]

There have always been mega farms in
Western Canada: the large cattle ranches
of 1900 and Charlie Noble who farmed
30000 acres in the late 20's come to
mind. None of these ever survive but it
gets tried time and again. What is
needed is a small rise in interest rates
(stops land prices from rising) so that
the Bay Street guys get spanked and sent
home. With all the debt around, sound
economic policy would have interest
rates higher than they are now.

[blackpowder]

For some reason I don't have any sympathy either.
What happened?? Pike was in my shed a few years ago, and the acres per old combine he 'advised' was laughable to anyone who's done anything.
We can all get caught for a variety of reasons. Was Broadass simply counting on too large a acre/wrong crop mix per machine?
Of course, all the neighbours having capacity to be done in x number of days isn't a tangible benchmark is it?
Are super farms workable?? Or in time will we have a lot of tenant farmers with more custom operators?
I think there is a certain bushel loss just having a non-farm type cover the ground.

[vvalk]

I don't understand the concept of saving $20 an
acre to run 10000 acres per large drill and 4-5000
acres per combine. What are to cost to this.
Normally getting a crop in early can mean 10-20%
better yields and better quality. How many $ per
acre were lost in the 1 wind event. On my farm I
have extra equip compared to normal and was
one day away from getting my yellow mustard off.
The wind destroyed it, lost at least $200K and if I
wasn't over combined powered I would have lost
at least twice that much in canola and barley. Not
only that not having to work ridiculous hours for 2
months is worth it alone. I'd rather make a bit less

[TOM4CWB]

If a corporate structure... then less 'stress' on folks who do the work!

Just like big hog barns... restructuring occurs and they keep going... for a while!

Cargill and Richardsons are a good example of why family structures do last and are productive!

Cheers!

[SASKFARMER3]

My point is that Tom we are a family farm 100
years in this yard more than that in other areas of
sask.
yes our equipment line is maybe more than the
experts think but three Deere will get more done
tan one or two of the newest S680s.
A worker gets his job done Nd that's it. Every
farm. I could make look good on paper with a little
creativity but making it all work now that's the true
talent.
Just off phone with a guy who thought he sold for
mill and half , money for deposit sitting in real
estates acct. guess what they delayed payment
since June, it's now November. He told the agent
it's done I want my deposit, they won't give it to
him, a deal is a deal. Who are they representing
the buyer or the seller their taking a cut from. I'd
be phoning my lawyer.
BS, seller beware, if it sounds to good to be true
your probably getting screwed.

[sumdumguy]

Hope this farmer never transferred title. Who paid
the realtor? I would think that is who he is
working for. Lawyer involved?

He probably didn't get the crop?

[RD414]

It would be nice to know who the realitor was doing this also, that is if a deadline has passed for the deposit.

[Burbert]

Saskframer3, is Superframer, otherwise
known to most as Clark KENT to mirror
mortals such as us peons. Equipment put
away, landscaping, ditching done, now
feelin sorry fer everyone who ain't him.
What an fn joke this fellow is, phoney as
a Comedian 3 dollar bill. Why don't ya
take a noder super vacation and go swim in
some shark infested pool er a rip tied and
end this fantisssy????????

[hobbyfrmr]

You mean the seller never brought the documents
to his lawyer before signing a 1.5 million dollar
transaction? Really?
Not even his wife thought to check in with lawyer?
Something is odd about this story.

[Hopperbin]

Or is this the type of guy that is happy to have everything bad happen to him?

[furrowtickler]

Or are investors looking at the looming U.S. election thinking that low interest rates and Ben B. are done? Maybe they know the top is in on farmland - for now the percieved ROI is not achievable in farmland at these values and they are looking ahead at other investments that will give a higher ROI with possible rissing interest rates and saying whoa on land? Just a thought....

[LWeber]

Furrow:

Help me get my head around this because you are on this land is overvalued kick ...

A $25,000 new JD 4430 in 1979, adjusted for the manipulated CPI inflation rate is $74,900 in 2012... yet the same 125 -130 HP tractor today is over 100K and people are paying it.

What does a 7730 do better than a 4430 for an additonal 25%?

An $80,000 quarter of land at the peak in 1979 is inflation adjusted to $239,803 in 2012.

Currency and the buying power as we know it, is about to become ass wipe.

Do you think farmland prices will come down in that environment?

Just asking...

[ajl]

For apples to apples comparison, you
would have to compare a 4430 to a 6110
(one of those reduced feature models to
be comparable) or something like that.
You will likely find that the new
tractor compares in price mainly due to
it like a 4430 would be 2wd. Do you
think that the ethanol mandate will
survive a new depression? The other
thing that happens as food prices
inflate is that people do go without and
many are on food aid because they can no
longer afford to eat. You would be
surprised at how few calories you could
survive on. Waste is also reduced. So
it is very likely we will at some point
see a commodity pull back. Enjoy the
ride while it lasts.

[LWeber]

I f/u. It was a 7330 with 2WD not MFWD. I built it online to get the 100K price.