Can U.S. Corn Exports Pick up the Pace?

[errolanderson]

Next Friday is USDA . . . and chances
are; the U.S. government will start to
increase corn ending stocks for current
crop year. American corn exports have
been dismal and well below U.S.D.A.
projections. U.S. corn has simply priced
itself out of global markets.

Latest 619 million bu carryout may be
the low estimate for the year. And USDA
chief projects American corn ending
stocks to swell 3X under normal yield
estimates in 2013-14.

To me, this suggests that new crop corn
remains quite overvalued . . . . Old
crop appears range-bound for now within
a 30 cent/bu trading window. But if
crude oil makes a break toward $80 per
barrel, old crop corn prices will also
break into a new 'n improved lower
trading range.

South American weather appears to be
improving right now. Northern Brazil is
getting needed moisture, while Argentina
is getting a dry weather break for a few
days.

U.S. wheat futures have performed poorly
despite the Ukraine wheat export ban Nov
15th. Why? U.S. wheat markets may have
to deal with a rising U.S. dollar ahead
as precious metals have lost their
luster due to NO inflationary threats.
Gold and silver can continue to decline
(IMO). Also, India has taken over
Ukraine export market share. In fact,
India will be in the top ten wheat
exporters this year.

IMO, these are some evolving factors
that can affect the Western Cdn
marketplace straight ahead.

Errol

[bucket]

The US is importing corn. That will make some difference.

But I am not sure the corn is available like everyone seems to think.

Harvested acres does not include those that were abandoned. It keeps the bpa up but the overall production numbers have to be adjusted. This may be their way of adjusting.

When the experts and the estimators start on the new crop, will they use 175 bpa as trend line yields or will it be somewhere closer to 135 bpa. Sure they need 175 just like they needed 166 bpa in 2012 - it didn't happen.

Maybe short term needs are met by the importers, hand to mouth trading much like "just in time" is going to leave alot of end users paying more than they originally planned.

[HappyFarmer]

Bucket I agree, the 2013 corn crop is a lomg
ways away. This year we had record seedingace,
record acres, which was all to ad up to a record
crop. And look what happened. None the less we
should all be prepared.

But Errol is not wrong either. To go along with
struggling exports, ethonal margins are in
negative territory and ethonal stocks are still to
high. If we see oil down to the low 80s most of the
winter, demand for ethonal will fade quickly as
well.

The supply "game" if you want to call it has run its
course. No one cares that much about it anymore.
Our focus is on demand.

[bucket]

Changing the subject a little. Is there any refineries that were hit by the storm on the east coast?

If not, how does that affect oil, gas and ethanol (corn) going forward?

They will need alot to get restarted but will it create extra demand long term? Short term sure.

Maybe buying auto stocks would be a good thing. Alot of cars are going to be written off.

[bucket]

Errol makes good points but from my experience the amount of rain in argentina sounds like what happened here in 2010,2011 and part of 2012.

It produced a crop but far from a record which is what the world is betting on.

So is pricing 2013 hrsw at 8 bucks a bad thing?

[HappyFarmer]

Of course it's not a bad thing.

[HappyFarmer]

Of course it's not a bad thing.

[cottonpicken]

Gold aint going down and if it does,not for long.

[cottonpicken]

25% of annual silver production was dumped on the
market on friday in ten minutes,it was promptly
bought up.