When is the best time to sell your canola

[lesm]

Bases on historical average monthly
prices from the canola council of Canada
for the crop years 1983-84 to 2011-2012,
the best month to sell canola was August
of the following crop year. In the 29
year period, you would have achieved the
highest price of the crop year 24.1% of
the time. If you sold your crop from the
months of May to August, you would have
received the highest price 62% of the
time. The poorest consecutive months
were Oct.-0%, Nov.3.4% and Dec. -3.4%.
Fire all your marketing gurus and sell
in the May-august period!

[bucket]

Harvest, two years running.

[furrowtickler]

Usually a month before or after we sell some....

[SASKFARMER3]

We like to sell 80 percent of our canola from may
to August. Always have always will.

[mcfarms]

I like to selll mine when the price is the highest, I'm kinda funny that way.

[TOM4CWB]

July/Aug and March/April.

The South American crop will have a huge impact this year... so if trouble with Brazil becomes obvious... discounts to the fall of 2013 will vanish. Then weather forcasts for the 2013 US midwest will impact greatly in May/June.

[fjlip]

Actually June 1st seems to be a turning point many years.
Agree, on average, Aug to Jan are lower prices.
However, never 100% of the time.
Place your bets fellas.
In the bin is a long position.

[charliep]

Will let you guys go on the seasonality component of canola. I will make the observation that CBT soybean oil has sunk below 50 cents per pound. Will have to watch over the next couple of days but that may be the new resistance area. Soybean oil/bio diesel remains tethered to crude oil so $86/barrel crude does not suggest higher vegetable oil prices.

Argentina is finally making some moves on getting soybeans seeded. Brazil has its problem areas but others are quite fine.

Seasonality quite often works but not 100 % of the time. The 60 cent/bu inverse between January soybean futures and May could be trying to tell you something. There is no carry to a slight inverse in ICE canola futures.

[bucket]

Everyone always says to thank them because they sold some canola and the price goes up.

Would someone pleeeeease step up and take one for the team.

[charliep]

Just curious. What strategy does a market with a strong basis and little to no carry in futures (even a slight inverse) suggest a farmer do even if you are bullish? Of all the crops you have in your bin, which ones should you be storing unpriced and which should you be selling if you have cash flow/other needs?

[Burbert]

When the price is good. Ya don't have ta
babysit the shit over winter then spring.
Ya'll never go broke makin a profit. Hold
it to long you'll get conspiated, butt
again who wants ta die of the
sh_ts......Duhhhhhh

[Hopperbin]

i am sure we all had the heated experience how
manuy of us work that in, i like to do it anyways
emptying the peas and wheat bins cause that
was where the money was on my farm , will be
leaving my canola till january for pricing unless
something comes up hoping meal will actually
push our up a bit also are we not supposed to
trade at a premium to soy meal

[Hopperbin]

i am sure we all had the heated experience how
manuy of us work that in, i like to do it anyways
emptying the peas and wheat bins cause that
was where the money was on my farm , will be
leaving my canola till january for pricing unless
something comes up hoping meal will actually
push our up a bit also are we not supposed to
trade at a premium to soy meal

[charliep]

Canola meal actually sells at quite a discount to soybean meal - lower proteina and energy. It does have a fit in dairy rations.

<a href="http://fr.canolacouncil.org/oil-and-meal/canola-meal/dairy-and-beef-cattle-diets-with-canola-meal/dairy-rations/>"canola meal in dairy rations</a>

Where the premiums are is on the canola oil versus soybean oil. Canola benefits from low transfat and low saturated fats - a health trend in North America. Interesting as well, most canola oil exported to the US is refined (added value). Canola oil sold to China is unrefined at a more competitive world price (read palm oil).

[charliep]

Try again.

<a href="http://fr.canolacouncil.org/oil-and-meal/canola-meal/dairy-and-beef-cattle-diets-with-canola-meal/dairy-rations/">canola meal</a>