When is the best time to sell your canola

[dirtgirl]

Lesm,
Do you know if those monthly prices are net of
futures and basis? I tried to find that info on the
canola council website but the closest I can find is
a yearly avg price. I know that historically basis is
usually the best May-August and that goes a long
way to explaining why on avg best price is
achieved then. If your number of may-aug being
best price 64% of the time happened to be based
on futures alone then the prices would look even
better after adjusting for basis. A may-aug canola
marketing plan would be incredibly simple and
effective!!

Of course the market inverse could be telling us to
do something different this year!

[lesm]

Dirtgirl,got this info from
www.canolacouncil.org/markets-
stats/statistics/current-canola-oil,
-meal,-and-seed-prices
Prices are calculated basis in store
pacific coast.

[dirtgirl]

Thanks Lesm!

[charliep]

I would likely need a little more information about your strategy (i.e. are you putting a spread on between the two strike prices) but in general sounds like a good way of going to capture any potential spring/summer rally. I might be a bit patient in buying the calls - let this market play out a bit. I might also wait a little while to pull the trigger on canola. The charts make me nervous but I suspect patience will net out a better price (combination of both futures and basis). You don't need to do both at once. Try to sell canola on a rally and buy the call on a dip.

[charliep]

Way down the list but would be nice to get some other perspectives.

Things that are on my radar.

When you turn off all the market chatter and just look at the soybean, soybean oil and canola charts, what are they trying to tell us about prices direction today (tomorrow may be different). Carry between futures months. Trading volume and open interest.

There is lots of reason to be bullish about the oilseed complex and yet prices are sitting on chart support areas with a risk they will crack them in the short term. What are we missing? Would a further price decline bring on buying/begin the next leg higher or a sign of some bigger problems on the demand side?

Seasonality would suggest higher prices late winter with the spring dependent on South America/US soybean seeded acreage expectations. From my thinking, I would have some clear pricing targets and sell when achieved. I wouldn't do any replacement strategy unless there are clear signals the market is headed higher.