Distorting Harvest data

[fjlip]

Could be happening anywhere...historic US 2012 drought never had an impact...


Kazakhstan's Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday it suspects authorities in the country's main grain-growing regions of upwardly distorting grain harvest data, which could lead it to revise its grain export forecast for the 2012/13 season. "What causes the Agriculture Ministry concern is that we have a discrepancy of 1.4 million tonnes of grain," Deputy Agriculture Minister Muslim Umiryayev told a news conference. He said the three main grain-growing regions in the country's north had reported a combined grain crop of 11.2 million tonnes this year, while space monitoring data showed a crop of just 9.8 million tonnes. A ministry report, published on Tuesday and based on reports by the heads of these regions, showed Kazakhstan's total grain crop was 12.3 million tonnes by clean weight this year. This compares to last year's post-Soviet record of 27 million tonnes. Based on these crop data, the ministry also forecast that Kazakh grain exports would total around 8 million tonnes in the 2012/13 marketing year. (REUTERS)

[HappyFarmer]

The drought card was played a long time ago.
Those who didn't take advantage of it then are
paying the price now. Export report in the us
showed terrible results for corn and wheat,
somewhat better for beans this morning. Wait until
importers start canceling bean contacts. That's
when the shit is going hit the fan!

Time for everyone to wake up and realize its all
about demand from here on out, and right now it
sucks!

[HappyFarmer]

Maybe im going a little overboard, but everyday when i go through stuff the negatives are far outweight the positives in the market, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of probable factors that are going to dramatically turn things around. Traders are still way to long bean contracts, palm prices are in the tank, no huge problems in South America, negative crush margins in china, charts are taking out key resistance points, fiscal cliff looming, Petraus is banging his jounalist(just kidding on that one!), And so one. People on the floor aren't going into work everyday to try and uncover areas of the world that are going to be short of grain on a day to day basis. They are looking at the factors that i have mentioned above.
Thank God canola demand is as strong as it has been or god know where we would be sitting today.
Looks like Jan beans were able to bouce of 13.90 and dec corn didn't test 7.03. Thank goodness.

[bucket]

If russia and India are releasing stocks to cool the domestic price, is that not an indicator that they may be short wheat more than the world is ready to acknowledge?

[vvalk]

the market has priced in a bumper crop in South
America already it seems which probably means
that crop can only get smaller. USDA has
overstated the corn acres harvested and won't
change until Jan. are the soybeans yields really
that high that essentially they got the same yield
as last year. Australia will not have the exports,
Black Sea will slow down exports and the US
wheat crop for 2013 is in the worst shape ever
and getting worse. Not saying. Prices will go up
since the specs will trade on technicals but I
would say there is far more positive reasons to go
up then down by 2 to 1. The market is only
focused on the neg right now which in all fairness
is what they were doing when the price was going
up. I personally am getting nervous but will wait till
the new year to see if the sentiment will switch.
Have to kill the crop in s America once don't we?

[HappyFarmer]

India is a wheat EXPORTer this year so I don't buy that argument bucket.

You make a valid argument vvalk and i respect that, but still don't disagree. You certainly my be right on the harvested corn acre and maybe even the bean yeilds (although we have always know that they are a August crop and a lot of areas did get good rains before the"break the crop" period). Just don't think there are 2 to 1 pos to neg ratio.

[bucket]

happyfarmer

I don't think this shit up by myself. Although I think Russia, India and Ukraine are using some interesting tactics to pull prices down. It could be that they are hoping to buy soon when the price is right. Its happened before and like the people that follow charts, history will repeat itself.


Here is the quote from DTN midday Novemeber 13,2012.

"" WHEAT

Wheat trade is 3 to 9 lower, and have struggled all morning as Ukraine once
again denied export demand rumors. The wheat trade is still within its recent
range, and the rest of the world should remain supportive to wheat prices. U.S.
soft red wheat is the cheapest in the world right now before freight, and Egypt
is expected to tender for more soon. Middle Eastern export demand looks to be
picking up. Russia and India are releasing domestic intervention stocks to try
to cool off domestic price increases. Export inspections stayed pretty soft at
10 million bushels, and crop conditions are expected to fade another point or
so. """

[Partners]

When the calendar flips to Nov. 1st the whole world finds some negative numbers so the markets can tumble downwards..They will rebound in the new yr. but, it is a world agreement to keep grain prices low and affordable..The higher prices were there for all to lock in some..Felt good to haul our $14.04 canola today...

[HappyFarmer]

Bucket,
Wasnt trying to say you were making stuff and
obviously you are not.

Ukraine, Russia and India will not import wheat
but no doubt won't be exporting as much either.

[vvalk]

Happy. What about soybean exports being way
ahead of normal and I believe ahead of USDA
numbers. And not by just a little bit. Same with
canola here. Even with the soybean number
staying the same we don't have much to spare
and price will have to curb that export pace. I
remember Charlie mentioning we need to watch
the crush and export pace. Correct me if I am
wrong but those number are too high for what
supplies we have. Still think everyone has the
largest s American crop ever already in the bin so
don't see any neg aspect there

[vvalk]

Though I think corn disappearance sucks

[HappyFarmer]

You are right vvalk. Bean exports are current
about 26 percent shipped and about 70 percent
shipped and sold for the year. Really strong.
Thing is though more than likely the 26 percent
that has been shipped was cheap stuff purchased
last winter. The problem is that the other roughly
45 that is sold but not shipped is very high priced
and a lot of it will be cancelled.. Remember that a
export contact is not like a contract you or I do at
the elevator. Most farmer honor 99.9 percent of
the grain we contact. To these f--kin overseas
buyers, it's just a piece of paper that's says a
price an if they feel like it, they will take it. And we
are already seeing signs of it the last 3 weeks and
will continue.

Also take into account the world stock to use will
end up being higher than it was at the end of this
year. So ever though n.a. Is short bean, the world
actually will have more at its disposal.

Exports and crush for canola are both extremely
good thus far, though exports are going to slow
down in the new year. But remember canola has
still held up a lot better than beans have and
probably will carry a premium to the all year.
Canola crush margins have taken a big hit and
they wont continue to crush if its not profiable.
Canola will always be the ugly sister to beans will
have take go down with it, all be it not to the same
degree

Demand ultimately will be determined be the
financial heath of the world, and I think we all
know how that is. Crude is going to tank and thus
take our major commodities with it. It's just a sad
fact, but its still a fact.

Sorry for the rant but my basis is not on what
supply and demand has been thus far, its about
what demand will be going forward. The highs are
behind us.

Just my opinion.
Probably will be wrong.

[bucket]

When Russia and the ukraine impose export bans and the US realizes how much wheat has been fed because they can't find this 10bbu corn crop, the markets will move up.


Look, the USDA has set the bpa on corn, beans and wheat but the harvested acres are still an unknown publicly. If they reduce acres and increase yield then they are manipulating the markets.

They can get away with it as long as there is an early harvest next year and they can borrow bushels again. But if a normal crop comes in and harvest starts later, things could get interesting.

[malleefarmer]

harvest data australia my gut feel is
australian crop should come in at current
usda estimates even more seems crop are
yielding slightly better than expected
but quality may become a issue if much
more rain falls in wa and eastern
australia

[burnt]

After what happened here in Ontario, all bets are off. We had almost no rain from early May until late August, decimating the hay crop badly.

But yet we pulled off astonishing, record yields in both soybean and corn crops. Soys routinely ran 50 -60 bushels/ac. and corn ran from 165 - 225 bu/ac.

So if the same thing happened in parts of the corn belt, they could find significantly more bushels before next spring.

I don't know what they will find, but just saying that if it happened here on our relatively insignificant acreage, it could also be the case in the US where a few bushels per acre would actually make a major difference.

The demand side has obviously been dealt with already by high prices. I am not bullish, so I can't be disappointed!

It's O.K. to hold for more money, but would prudence not suggest that a good chunk of the crop should have been priced at the very profitable levels we saw around harvest time?