Distorting Harvest data

[bucket]

When Russia and the ukraine impose export bans and the US realizes how much wheat has been fed because they can't find this 10bbu corn crop, the markets will move up.


Look, the USDA has set the bpa on corn, beans and wheat but the harvested acres are still an unknown publicly. If they reduce acres and increase yield then they are manipulating the markets.

They can get away with it as long as there is an early harvest next year and they can borrow bushels again. But if a normal crop comes in and harvest starts later, things could get interesting.

[malleefarmer]

harvest data australia my gut feel is
australian crop should come in at current
usda estimates even more seems crop are
yielding slightly better than expected
but quality may become a issue if much
more rain falls in wa and eastern
australia

[burnt]

After what happened here in Ontario, all bets are off. We had almost no rain from early May until late August, decimating the hay crop badly.

But yet we pulled off astonishing, record yields in both soybean and corn crops. Soys routinely ran 50 -60 bushels/ac. and corn ran from 165 - 225 bu/ac.

So if the same thing happened in parts of the corn belt, they could find significantly more bushels before next spring.

I don't know what they will find, but just saying that if it happened here on our relatively insignificant acreage, it could also be the case in the US where a few bushels per acre would actually make a major difference.

The demand side has obviously been dealt with already by high prices. I am not bullish, so I can't be disappointed!

It's O.K. to hold for more money, but would prudence not suggest that a good chunk of the crop should have been priced at the very profitable levels we saw around harvest time?

[bucket]

The cwb supporters always told me the grain companies steal the grain at harvest because farmers need money.

The last two years, if you consider time value and risk of storing, harvest was the best time to sell.

If it is as dry as they say in the states, maybe the real problems in production show up next year.