But is a profit from fertilizer production of $300/MT long term possible?? I think that if profit for fert production remained at that level everyone would build a plant.
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I think they said something about not driving down the price of Fert because they would simply get crushed or squeezed out by the "Giants". The goal appeared to be providing fert at wholesale prices to those who bought in, not at cost of production but wholesale. Their profits would be the same whether they sold to a retailer or the Farmer. It was the retail level they are claiming to eliminate.
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Their are many design build companies to build a
plant, most of the planned projects will go with
this. The challenge is financing, do the farmers
really need other investors or is it a security
blanket? Depends how much is raised, control is
everything.
Any one can build a business, processing pant,
manufacturing facility. The real challenge is the
marketing and distribution. That is why
institutional investors are interested, captive and
committed market.
It's a perfect hedge for the farmers if they have
control, as they are the end users, in full control of
the value chain, with significant logistical
advantages. Who would be able to produce, and
distribute at a lower cost?
If market prices are high, the processing plant
makes money and pays dividends, if shit hits the
fan, plant breaks even all other plants go away,
and farmers have low cost N hopefully maintain a
cost of production(grain) that is competitive with
other unemcumbered grain producers.
Why wouldn't FNA just buy a operating plant in
Sask or Alberta vs build? A unconventional take
over or merger acquisition? This should be the
strategy. Some of the independant grain
terminals did this on the west coast, and very glad
they did
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