My Guess is Wheat will be the crop to grow in 2013!

[SASKFARMER3]

Just throwing this out their but boy
does sticking a fork in Canola because
its done and going back to growing wheat
in today's world is looking promising.
The USA is fricking dry the Winter wheat
is not browning off its dead!
SA will not produce a huge amount of
good quality wheat as Australia will not
either.
So starting to look at doing 6000 acres
Wheat and dropping Canola to 3000 plus
the soy oats peas making up the
remaining 1000.
When you look at 11 next fall (yes their
are sales higher but using today's
numbers).
See if we have a normal year with normal
weather their will be lots of 18 to 22s
in yield in Saskatchewan.
Yes their will be 50s but July heat will
give the other numbers if weather turns
normal
So some one explain how paying $125.00
rent plus inputs $210. plus general
expences and how a 22 bushel crop will
come close to covering their costs. Crop
insurance is based on your long term
yields and Regina had issues in a few
years so maybe 70% of 32 will guarantee
them 22.4 or basically what the yield
could be. Thats $246.40 an acre with
basic expenses at $335.00 these super
farmers are losing $89.00 an acre. Plus
their basic expenses.
Wow that pencils out!

[boarderbloke]

<a href="http://en.mercopress.com/2012/11/23/argentina-wheat-forecast-down-because-of-flooding-in-key-parts-of-farm-belt"target=blank>Argentina wheat forecast down</a>

[bucket]

SF3

I think alot of guys are thinking about wheat. I have started pricing wheat for sept13 at 8.25 when I can get it. I think there is upside but I want some grain moving off the combine.

The canola industry will be on its knees come March2013 if they don't start offerring up some better prices. And next year will be worse because, as you have said, acreage is going down as is yield. Every dip below 13 bucks between now and April 2013 cuts canola acreage and wheat acreage increases because its is a better net payment to the farm.

The crush can go after soybeans, but to get them, they are paying for fuel and rubber not product. And soybeans are not a discount substitute right now.

I would rather grow 13.50 flax than 12 buck canola. Feel more comfortable with the results if the dryness continues. Guys around here pulled off better yields with flax than canola and netted out way better.

[boarderbloke]

from agriculture.com Talk/Marketing

posted by marketeye("floor trader" that posts for them)

Floor Talk November 27

At the open:

At the open, the Dec. futures corn contract is trading 2 cents higher at $7.50. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 14 cents higher at $14.38. March wheat futures are trading 10 cents higher at $8.74 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.59 higher at $50.17. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.70 per short ton higher at $430.60.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 47 points lower.



Mike


-------------


At 7:45am:

Let's step back and take a look at this, folks. Ukraine is set to implement a wheat export ban Dec. 1. Now, there is talk Ukraine will have to halt corn exports by spring. There are whispers of Russia having to slow grain exports next year. Yesterday, I mentioned that a Ukrainian source tells me this in his own words: "If Russia began sales from its Intervention fund that means that the ban is inevitable. The open question is: when?"

Well, today, guess what? Russia announces that it is selling 62,304 tons of (Intervention) grain.

China, overnight, says it needs 10% more wheat imports next year, after doubling its wheat imports this year. In addition, everytime you turn on your computer, you read about more crop-weather problems from Australia to the U.S. Plains to the corn & soybean fields of Argentina.



Also, have you been keeping up with the soyoil situation. The U.S. exports of this soybean product are through the roof, for this time of the year. The trade says the U.S. needs to raise its soyoil export estimates and lower ending stocks estimates. And that's not all. Guess what? Anytime now, the EPA is set to announce its decision on the 2013 Biodiesel & Advanced Fuel mandate. What's expected? You guessed it, a ramp up of the use of soyoil for biodiesel. The U.S. soybean supplies are already considered tight. We need more soybeans. but, wait, I'm hearing 2013 corn acreage estimates of 100 million. Where will the beans come from to produce more soyoil?



Folks, we have a situation building here. Oh by the way, have you tried to set a fence post, lately, nearly anywhere in the Corn Belt? That's right, it's really really dry down there.



Have you seen the extended weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest? Not a lot of moisture headed our way.



What I'm trying to say is that as the world reports supply shortages, the outlook to replenish those supplies looks dismal. Has this all been built into the market? I don't think so. The market still believes the U.S. farmer can feed and supply the world. Do you believe that?



I'd be interested in your response. Thanks for sharing.

Mike



Is the lenghty sideways trading in wheat ready to explode to the upside? Hoping not to give everything up at the end of the day. BB

[furrowtickler]

My caution flag is up, the market is going to get more wheat - alot of it. Every door knob farmer on earth can grow it and as history has proven time and time again - "a farmer will produce himself to poverty." History shows the majority of farmers are 6-12 months too late and tend to jump on a lame horse.
This winter will have good opertunities to sell 2012 crop and pre price '13. But if a large crop is grown these prices will evaporate before the north american fall harvest.

[boarderbloke]

Only $0.21/bus difference in MAR Wheat MGE vs. KCBT this afternoon, trading still on

[boarderbloke]

At the close, only 18 3/4cents/bus difference in MAR Wheat, MGE vs. KCBT

you may be able to tell, I still have unpriced winter wheat and spring wheat in the bin.

[HappyFarmer]

Furrow I agree.
The economics of growing wheat next you compared to something like canola or corn are going to make it globally the crop of choice next year.
SK3 you may be right, but if we aren't taking advantage of what is out there for pricing next year, could be looking at 4 or 5 dollars wheat, which isn't going to be profitable for any of us.
The market is dangling the carrot in front of us, best eat it while it is there.

[HappyFarmer]

Anyone else want to guess that mike is long ahhhhhh, everything??? LOL

[boarderbloke]

HappyFarmer, where in the USA are they going to increase US wheat ending stocks? Not in ND or SD, corn will bid hard for acres and will win out do to return/acre or program payments. MT will grow wheat, but they'll have to decide between durum and HRS.
Canada's acres are a drop in the bucket and guys yaking about growing wheat rather than canola will still be growing as much canola as possilbe. Ever in your life get a straight answer from a farmer about what they're planting??? We all BS alittle, farmers never lay all their cards on the table till they can prove they made the right marketing decision. Then they'll go to town with a canola cheque stub showing they sold some at $650/t(just the last load)

[hobbyfrmr]

I agree with boarderbloke. There will still be too
much canola grown on canola stubble in 2013.
Canada wheat production is miniscule on a
world production scale. Canola is addictive
there is a chance of good money.

[SASKFARMER3]

Hobby
20 canola at 12 is 240
30 hrs at 10 is 300
These are shitty crop.
50 canola at 12 is 600
60 hrs at 10 is 600
Wheat is cheaper to grow canola is a over priced
crop that input suppliers screwed.

[bgmb]

At todays prices

Canola 35* 13.50=472.5

Wheat 50* 8.5= 425

Wheat is 50 bucks cheaper to grow so profit
would be the same. Wow do i miss the cwb.

[HappyFarmer]

Boader.
Once again you and most people on here are only
concered about supply, supply, supply and
neglect to pay any attention tot demand.
Do your research on demand for us wheat so far
this year and you will figure out what I am talking
about.

Thats how they will build stock.

[furrowtickler]

S/F , you realy think you will get $10/bus for all your hrsw? Wow - you are bullish wheat. That senerio of an ave 12 for canola and 10 for hrsw has a less than 20% probability. If you are right that wheat maintains around $10 canola in all likely hood will be $15 IMO.