Grains Now Require Fresh Bullish News

[errolanderson]

Realize recent grain price rebound has
been meager, but unless fresh bullish
news enters soon, U.S. grain markets
might be ripe for another setback (IMO).
Technically, these markets appear
approaching chart resistance levels once
again, but at much lower levels.

Too dry and then too wet South American
weather suggests the Southern Hemisphere
remains in great shape.

Wheat markets are holding up due to the
southern U.S. drought, but it will be
the spring rains that count. There's
lots of time for the American wheat crop
to recover. India appears to have
replaced reduced Black Sea exports.

Also, the fiscal cliff means something
to markets no matter how hard
politicians try to downplay this fiasco.

In my opinion, current known bull
factors in the marketplace may again
getting long-in-the-tooth. Believe that
fresh bullish blood now needed for
markets to break technically higher.

We'll all know for sure soon . . . .

Errol

[ALLFARMER]

Just read Obama wants the middle class to write
congress and fight to extend the Bush tax cuts.
Essentially $2000 a year is too much of an
increase on the middle class???????

Could someone pass Obama a copy of the US
budget and an updated copy of the balance sheet.

Fiscal cliff or Canyon floor?

[malleefarmer]

Eu stocks tightest ever 24 days supply

USA winter wheat shocking and not likely
to improve in next 2 weeks

russian stocks low and exports will slow
as winter sets in

china to increase imports


flip side india exports may offest eu
shortages

if beans grind lower wheat may follow
for no reason.

but myself think sideways rangebound
market until late jan feb march when
some sparks may fly on upside

many grwer here are selling over the
counter wheat swaps this week myself
included had a target of $315 aussie of
off cbot got to $319 yesterday have
another 2 order in at $325 and $335 plus
have some physical sales for next year
at $307

historically here anything over $300 is
decile 9 price ie in top 15% has gone
higher but was drought induced

ps my wheat harvest is ok yield wise but
quality is crap low protien and is a
common problem in oz this year mostly
around 9.5 to 10% protien usually get 11
to 12.5%

[farmaholic]

Mallee: maybe we could blend our wheat, I've got CWRS @ 16-17 px.

[malleefarmer]

you load your vessel i load mine we will
meet were north africa for blending eygpt
knowing our luck our ships would get hit
by a rogue missile

[hedgehog]

i read that western oz has only got under 6m tons of wheat, aginst 10m normal or 15m last yr.
not much to export

[errolanderson]

Is the Mississippi River crisis bullish or
bearish? Hearing both spins . . . .

Our opinion is that if the Mississippi is
closed in December (now at the lowest
levels since the 1940s), that would be
quite bearish to U.S. cash grain prices.

What are other opinions out there?

[bucket]

Been reading about the mississippi river closing for a while now.

Doesn't it close every year for a while?

[bucket]

Errol

Just out of curiousity - what isn't bearish in your world?

[errolanderson]

bucket

Just out of curiousity - what isn't
bullish in your world?

[bucket]

I see the bearish factors Mr. Anderson but do they outweigh the more bullish news?

I think traffic slows on the mississippi during the winter months but I am not sure which is why I asked the question. But there is less corn to move anyway.

The weather in the US plains is above average temps which continue to dry out the soil and the winter wheat crops. The rains they need for the spring of 2013 to replenish the soil will only slow seeding progress next spring.

To grow a monster of corn crops they will need rain regularly and a normal harvest will set new crop availability back a few weeks.

[mcfarms]

Confusesh say

" When wong for whole year keep being wong cause you closer to being wight than admitting you wong"

[bucket]

mcfarms


To be clear, because you guys have noticed that I am a little dense, was that remark pointed at me?

[errolanderson]

bucket . . . enjoy comments and enjoy our bantering. Someday, maybe we'll have a beer together.

You have good points, This is my point of view . . . . Grain markets will rally, but they won't go back to the good 'ol days of summer. Those days are long gone without a fresh bout of bullish news. If that news arrives then yes, prices will go stormin higher.
But right now, grain markets including wheat, corn and soybeans are nearing technical highs. Remember, the world we live in is a basket case financially . . . it will affect commodities. And my view for commodities in 2013 is a tough year.

The fiasco called U.S. politics can harm commodity markets worldwide (IMO).

The Mississippi situation, (if closed) is quite bearish the cash basis. Basis levels in the Midwest are already widening. The futures may be another question. From the bull camp, inability to get grain to port may rally the futures or not? That's my question.

As far as Mcfarms . . . I'm assuming you are quoting yourself. I don't really care if you treat me like the whipping stome for some market reality. Have at er . . . But if you are the last to sell in this market enviroment, you might not be selling in the top third of average yearly prices in this crop year.

Errol

[mcfarms]

Bucket no
Errol

Actually I got hailed out and I mean hailed out,within 50000 of my coverage hailed out . But I am marketing a bit with family members , but before that I was 75 percent sold on barley through malt contracts with an act of god. Had a little wheat like 20 percent sold @ 9.56 which family members were happy to take off my hands. Canola I had basis contracts and have sold what I produced. As for the other farm we covered my 6.50 malt contracts with that barley, have spring wheat at 40 percent and am holding because the A) the fiscal cliff thing will be dealt with becasue it has to be. and b) the worst winter wheat conditions in what 40 years. so I'm willing to take a flyer on that one. Winter Wheat is 60 percent sold at 7.65 Peas we are mostly sold on at between 8 and 9 would have liked to sit on some for spring but got out voted. Canola I have pushed for a little higher level of sales in late spet /oct but wasn't done ( not my grain not my final decision)
The shitty thing is that I pretty much called this year perfectly and in the end it really sucks that I really have very little of my own grain to capitalize on these prices our crops were very very good and the lumps will take time to fade. But my marketing plan on the remainder that I am working on has been pretty good, I hope I can be on the market in future years as good as I was this.



And you know what, I am saying right here I think you're going to be eventually right because the factors you point to are overhanging this market and one of these days these economies are going to implode ( read collapse by Jarod M Diamond if you haven't) and the odds of year after year of all these production problems in the world continuing on are probaly starting to tilt against us and though it may shock you I do believe prices come fall may likely will be lower than where we are today on Barley and Canola . I do believe there is enough production issues in wheat that we have the greatest upside potential there ( and bean oil) but do believe barley canola?and feed wheat will be lower in late 13 than late 12. But among risk management and production theres also a little thing called timing. And thats what gets you those sales in the top third.

Trust me in this place youre a brave man to take a position on the markets and I have tried over the years I have posted here to as much just drop in pieces of info others may find helpfull in making their own decisions both bull and bear, new sites good articles etc. and yah I'd love to be the eternal Bull , kinda makes what I do for a living a whole lot funner and worth getting up on the morning when a person's optomistic about things.

Don't mind me I just have felt all summer that like bucket the bull had been just the fatter kid on the tetter totter than the bear. and you haven't so I've had to poke you .
If I come on here and make a call and it is wrong trust me these guys will be all over me and if I blew it I'll own it.
Youre a good man for using your own name ( thought you could be Charlie posing as Erroll Anderson or a hot 18 year old farm girl ( it is the internet after all) But you have to realize , you've chosen to make a living making these calls and theres some responsibilty you carry with your calls and you have to accept that if you do wander in here and make a call be prepared to get a little gentle abuse when you miss it.
And you have to admit you have been like the goth kid at school all year.

Cheers