Grains Now Require Fresh Bullish News

[errolanderson]

Realize recent grain price rebound has
been meager, but unless fresh bullish
news enters soon, U.S. grain markets
might be ripe for another setback (IMO).
Technically, these markets appear
approaching chart resistance levels once
again, but at much lower levels.

Too dry and then too wet South American
weather suggests the Southern Hemisphere
remains in great shape.

Wheat markets are holding up due to the
southern U.S. drought, but it will be
the spring rains that count. There's
lots of time for the American wheat crop
to recover. India appears to have
replaced reduced Black Sea exports.

Also, the fiscal cliff means something
to markets no matter how hard
politicians try to downplay this fiasco.

In my opinion, current known bull
factors in the marketplace may again
getting long-in-the-tooth. Believe that
fresh bullish blood now needed for
markets to break technically higher.

We'll all know for sure soon . . . .

Errol

[ALLFARMER]

Just read Obama wants the middle class to write
congress and fight to extend the Bush tax cuts.
Essentially $2000 a year is too much of an
increase on the middle class???????

Could someone pass Obama a copy of the US
budget and an updated copy of the balance sheet.

Fiscal cliff or Canyon floor?

[malleefarmer]

Eu stocks tightest ever 24 days supply

USA winter wheat shocking and not likely
to improve in next 2 weeks

russian stocks low and exports will slow
as winter sets in

china to increase imports


flip side india exports may offest eu
shortages

if beans grind lower wheat may follow
for no reason.

but myself think sideways rangebound
market until late jan feb march when
some sparks may fly on upside

many grwer here are selling over the
counter wheat swaps this week myself
included had a target of $315 aussie of
off cbot got to $319 yesterday have
another 2 order in at $325 and $335 plus
have some physical sales for next year
at $307

historically here anything over $300 is
decile 9 price ie in top 15% has gone
higher but was drought induced

ps my wheat harvest is ok yield wise but
quality is crap low protien and is a
common problem in oz this year mostly
around 9.5 to 10% protien usually get 11
to 12.5%

[farmaholic]

Mallee: maybe we could blend our wheat, I've got CWRS @ 16-17 px.

[malleefarmer]

you load your vessel i load mine we will
meet were north africa for blending eygpt
knowing our luck our ships would get hit
by a rogue missile

[hedgehog]

i read that western oz has only got under 6m tons of wheat, aginst 10m normal or 15m last yr.
not much to export

[errolanderson]

Is the Mississippi River crisis bullish or
bearish? Hearing both spins . . . .

Our opinion is that if the Mississippi is
closed in December (now at the lowest
levels since the 1940s), that would be
quite bearish to U.S. cash grain prices.

What are other opinions out there?

[bucket]

Been reading about the mississippi river closing for a while now.

Doesn't it close every year for a while?

[bucket]

Errol

Just out of curiousity - what isn't bearish in your world?

[errolanderson]

bucket

Just out of curiousity - what isn't
bullish in your world?

[bucket]

I see the bearish factors Mr. Anderson but do they outweigh the more bullish news?

I think traffic slows on the mississippi during the winter months but I am not sure which is why I asked the question. But there is less corn to move anyway.

The weather in the US plains is above average temps which continue to dry out the soil and the winter wheat crops. The rains they need for the spring of 2013 to replenish the soil will only slow seeding progress next spring.

To grow a monster of corn crops they will need rain regularly and a normal harvest will set new crop availability back a few weeks.

[mcfarms]

Confusesh say

" When wong for whole year keep being wong cause you closer to being wight than admitting you wong"